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Supply Shocks and Real Exchange Rates

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Author Info
Alexius, Annika (Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of Sweden)

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Abstract

Previous studies of the sources of real exchange rate fluctuations have concluded that real demand shocks account for the bulk of the movements in real exchange rates. In this paper, bilateral real exchange rates between the US, the UK, Germany and Japan are investigated using a statistical approach that allows for long-run equilibrium relationships between real exchange rates and the fundamental variables. The results differ from previous findings in that most long run movements in real exchange rates are due to supply shocks. This can be interpreted as empirical support for the Balassa (1964) and Samuelson (1964) relative productivity approach to real exchange rate determination.

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Publisher Info
Paper provided by Sveriges Riksbank (Central Bank of Sweden) in its series Working Paper Series with number 117.

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Length: 28 pages
Date of creation: 01 Dec 2000
Date of revision:
Publication status: Published in Journal of Monetary Economics, 2005, pages 555-566.
Handle: RePEc:hhs:rbnkwp:0117

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Postal: Sveriges Riksbank, SE-103 37 Stockholm, Sweden
Phone: 08 - 787 00 00
Fax: 08-21 05 31
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Web page: http://www.riksbank.com/
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Related research
Keywords: Real exchange rates Supply shocks

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
E50 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - General

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References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Olivier Jean Blanchard & Danny Quah, 1990. "The Dynamic Effects of Aggregate Demand and Supply Disturbances," NBER Working Papers 2737, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  2. Robert G. King & Charles I. Plosser & James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 1991. "Stochastic trends and economic fluctuations," Working Paper Series, Macroeconomic Issues 91-4, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
    Other versions:
  3. Bankim Chadha & Eswar Prasad, 1996. "Real Exchange Rate Fluctuations and the Business Cycle: Evidence from Japan," IMF Working Papers 96/132, International Monetary Fund.
  4. Warne, A., 1993. "A Common Trends Model: Identification, Estimation and Inference," Papers 555, Stockholm - International Economic Studies.
  5. Richard Clarida & Jordi Gali, 1994. "Sources of real exchange rate fluctuations: how important are nominal shocks?," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, issue Apr.
    Other versions:
  6. Maurice Obstfeld, 1986. "Floating Exchange Rates: Experience and Prospects," NBER Reprints 0792, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  7. Menzie Chinn & Louis Johnston, 1996. "Real Exchange Rate Levels, Productivity and Demand Shocks: Evidence from a Panel of 14 Countries," NBER Working Papers 5709, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  8. Matthew B. Canzoneri & Robert E. Cumby & Behzad Diba, 1996. "Relative Labor Productivity and the Real Exchange Rate in the Long Run: Evidence for a Panel of OECD Countries," NBER Working Papers 5676, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  9. Annika Alexius & Jonny Nilsson, 2000. "Real Exchange Rates and Fundamentals: Evidence from 15 OECD Countries," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 11(4), pages 383-397, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  10. Peter C.B. Phillips & Bruce E. Hansen, 1988. "Statistical Inference in Instrumental Variables," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 869R, Cowles Foundation, Yale University, revised Apr 1989. [Downloadable!]
  11. Weber, Axel A., 1997. "Sources of Purchasing Power Disparities between the G3 Economies," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 11(4), pages 548-583, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  12. Alexius, Annika, 1999. "Sources of Real Exchange Rate Fluctuations in the Nordic Countries," Working Paper Series 90, Sveriges Riksbank (Central Bank of Sweden). [Downloadable!]
  13. Johansen, Soren, 1988. "Statistical analysis of cointegration vectors," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 12(2-3), pages 231-254. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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