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Supply Shocks and Real Exchange Rates

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  • Alexius, Annika

    (Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of Sweden)

Abstract

Previous studies of the sources of real exchange rate fluctuations have concluded that real demand shocks account for the bulk of the movements in real exchange rates. In this paper, bilateral real exchange rates between the US, the UK, Germany and Japan are investigated using a statistical approach that allows for long-run equilibrium relationships between real exchange rates and the fundamental variables. The results differ from previous findings in that most long run movements in real exchange rates are due to supply shocks. This can be interpreted as empirical support for the Balassa (1964) and Samuelson (1964) relative productivity approach to real exchange rate determination.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Sveriges Riksbank (Central Bank of Sweden) in its series Working Paper Series with number 117.

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Length: 28 pages
Date of creation: 01 Dec 2000
Date of revision:
Publication status: Published in Journal of Monetary Economics, 2005, pages 555-566.
Handle: RePEc:hhs:rbnkwp:0117

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Postal: Sveriges Riksbank, SE-103 37 Stockholm, Sweden
Phone: 08 - 787 00 00
Fax: 08-21 05 31
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Web page: http://www.riksbank.com/
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Keywords: Real exchange rates; Supply shocks;

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References

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  1. Johansen, Soren, 1988. "Statistical analysis of cointegration vectors," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 12(2-3), pages 231-254.
  2. Warne, A., 1993. "A Common Trends Model: Identification, Estimation and Inference," Papers 555, Stockholm - International Economic Studies.
  3. Robert G. King & Charles I. Plosser & James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 1991. "Stochastic trends and economic fluctuations," Working Paper Series, Macroeconomic Issues 91-4, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
  4. Faust, Jon & Leeper, Eric M, 1997. "When Do Long-Run Identifying Restrictions Give Reliable Results?," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 15(3), pages 345-53, July.
  5. Clarida, R. & Gali, J., 1993. "Sources of Real Exchange Rate Fluctuations: How Important are Nominal Shocks?," Discussion Papers 1993_25, Columbia University, Department of Economics.
  6. Eichenbaum, Martin & Evans, Charles L, 1995. "Some Empirical Evidence on the Effects of Shocks to Monetary Policy on Exchange Rates," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 110(4), pages 975-1009, November.
  7. Bankim Chadha & Eswar Prasad, 1997. "Real Exchange Rate Fluctuations and the Business Cycle: Evidence from Japan," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 44(3), pages 328-355, September.
  8. Bela Balassa, 1964. "The Purchasing-Power Parity Doctrine: A Reappraisal," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 72, pages 584.
  9. Olivier Jean Blanchard & Danny Quah, 1988. "The Dynamic Effects of Aggregate Demand and Supply Disturbance," Working papers 497, Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Department of Economics.
  10. Annika Alexius & Jonny Nilsson, 2000. "Real Exchange Rates and Fundamentals: Evidence from 15 OECD Countries," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 11(4), pages 383-397, October.
  11. Canzoneri, Matthew B. & Cumby, Robert E. & Diba, Behzad, 1999. "Relative labor productivity and the real exchange rate in the long run: evidence for a panel of OECD countries," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 47(2), pages 245-266, April.
  12. Menzie Chinn & Louis Johnston, 1996. "Real Exchange Rate Levels, Productivity and Demand Shocks: Evidence from a Panel of 14 Countries," NBER Working Papers 5709, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  13. Maurice Obstfeld, 1985. "Floating Exchange Rates: Experience and Prospects," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 16(2), pages 369-464.
  14. Peter C.B. Phillips & Bruce E. Hansen, 1988. "Statistical Inference in Instrumental Variables," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 869R, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University, revised Apr 1989.
  15. Ronald Mac Donald, 1998. "What Do We Really Know About Real Exchange Rates?," Working Papers 28, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank).
  16. Weber, Axel A., 1997. "Sources of Purchasing Power Disparities between the G3 Economies," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 11(4), pages 548-583, December.
  17. Alexius, Annika, 1999. "Sources of Real Exchange Rate Fluctuations in the Nordic Countries," Working Paper Series 90, Sveriges Riksbank (Central Bank of Sweden).
  18. Jeffrey Sachs & Charles Wyplosz, 1984. "Real Exchange Rate Effects of Fiscal Policy," NBER Working Papers 1255, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  19. Stockman, Alan C., 1994. "Sources of real exchange-rate fluctuations: A comment," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 41(1), pages 57-65, December.
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