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Exchange Rates in Emerging Countries: Eleven Empirical Regularities from Latin America and East Asia

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  • Sebastian Edwards

Abstract

In this paper I discuss some of the most important lessons on exchange rate policies in emerging markets during the last 35 years. The analysis is undertaken from the perspective of both the Latin American and East Asian nations. Some of the topics addressed include: the relationship between exchange rate regimes and growth, the costs of currency crises, the merits of “dollarization,” the relation between exchange rates and macroeconomic stability, monetary independence under alternative exchange rate arrangements, and the effects of the recent global “currency wars” on exchange rates in commodity exporters.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 17074.

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Date of creation: May 2011
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Publication status: published as “Exchange-Rate Policies in Emerging Countries: Elev en Empirical Regularities from Latin America and East Asia,” Open Economies Review , vol. 22, no. 4, September 2011, pp. 533-63.
Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:17074

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References

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  1. Guillermo Calvo & Frederic S. Mishkin, 2003. "The Mirage of Exchange Rate Regimes for Emerging Market Countries," NBER Working Papers 9808, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  2. Edwards, Sebastian, 1998. "Two Crises: Inflationary Inertia and Credibility," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 108(448), pages 680-702, May.
  3. Broda, Christian, 2004. "Terms of trade and exchange rate regimes in developing countries," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 63(1), pages 31-58, May.
  4. Cavallo, Eduardo A. & Frankel, Jeffrey A., 2008. "Does openness to trade make countries more vulnerable to sudden stops, or less? Using gravity to establish causality," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 27(8), pages 1430-1452, December.
  5. Sebastian Edwards, 2004. "Thirty Years of Current Account Imbalances, Current Account Reversals and Sudden Stops," NBER Working Papers 10276, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  6. Joshua Aizenman & Jaewoo Lee, 2006. "Financial Versus Monetary Mercantilism-Long-run View of Large International Reserves Hoarding," NBER Working Papers 12718, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  7. Frankel, Jeffrey & Schmukler, Sergio L. & Serven, Luis, 2004. "Global transmission of interest rates: monetary independence and currency regime," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 23(5), pages 701-733, September.
  8. Aizenman, Joshua & Marion, Nancy P., 2003. "International Reserve Holdings with Sovereign Risk and Costly Tax Collection," Santa Cruz Center for International Economics, Working Paper Series qt9s7978n1, Center for International Economics, UC Santa Cruz.
  9. Eichengreen, Barry & Rose, Andrew K & Wyplosz, Charles, 1996. "Contagious Currency Crises," CEPR Discussion Papers 1453, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  10. Reinhart, Carmen & Calvo, Guillermo, 2002. "Fear of floating," MPRA Paper 14000, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  11. Matías Tapia & Andrea Tokman, 2004. "Effects of Foreign Exchange Intervention Under Public Information: the Chilean Case," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 255, Central Bank of Chile.
  12. Sebastian Edwards, 2004. "Thirty Years of Current Account Imbalances, Current Account Reversals, and Sudden Stops," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 51(s1), pages 1-49, June.
  13. Blattman, Christopher & Hwang, Jason & Williamson, Jeffrey G., 2007. "Winners and losers in the commodity lottery: The impact of terms of trade growth and volatility in the Periphery 1870-1939," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 82(1), pages 156-179, January.
  14. Eichengreen, Barry & Rose, Andrew & Wyplosz, Charles, 1996. " Contagious Currency Crises: First Tests," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 98(4), pages 463-84, December.
  15. Carmen M. Reinhart & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 2004. "Serial Default and the "Paradox" of Rich to Poor Capital Flows," NBER Working Papers 10296, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  16. De Gregorio, Jose & Edwards, Sebastian & Valdes, Rodrigo O., 2000. "Controls on capital inflows: do they work?," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 63(1), pages 59-83, October.
  17. Edwards, Sebastian & Magendzo, I. Igal, 2006. "Strict Dollarization and Economic Performance: An Empirical Investigation," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 38(1), pages 269-282, February.
  18. Sebastian Edwards & Jeffrey A. Frankel, 2002. "Introduction to "Preventing Currency Crises in Emerging Markets"," NBER Chapters, in: Preventing Currency Crises in Emerging Markets, pages 1-20 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  19. Salvador Valdés-Prieto & Marcelo Soto, 1998. "The Effectiveness of Capital Controls: Theory and Evidence from Chile," Empirica, Springer, vol. 25(2), pages 133-164, January.
  20. Guillermo A. Calvo & Leonardo Leiderman & Carmen M. Reinhart, 1993. "Capital Inflows and Real Exchange Rate Appreciation in Latin America: The Role of External Factors," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 40(1), pages 108-151, March.
  21. Chinn, M.D., 1997. "ON the Won: And Other East Asian Currencies," Papers 97-07, Economisch Institut voor het Midden en Kleinbedrijf-.
  22. Barry Eichengreen & Ricardo Hausmann, 1999. "Exchange Rates and Financial Fragility," NBER Working Papers 7418, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  23. Edwards, Sebastian, 2001. "Dollarization: Myths and realities," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 23(3), pages 249-265, April.
  24. Ricardo Hausmann & Michael Gavin & Carmen Pagés-Serra & Ernesto H. Stein, 1999. "Financial Turmoil and the Choice of Exchange Rate Regime," IDB Publications 4128, Inter-American Development Bank.
  25. Edwards, Sebastian & Rigobon, Roberto, 2009. "Capital controls on inflows, exchange rate volatility and external vulnerability," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 78(2), pages 256-267, July.
  26. Kristin J. Forbes, 2005. "The Microeconomic Evidence on Capital Controls: No Free Lunch," NBER Working Papers 11372, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  27. Sebastian Edwards, 1993. "Trade Policy, Exchange Rates and Growth," NBER Working Papers 4511, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  28. Carmen M. Reinhart & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 2009. "This Time Is Different: Eight Centuries of Financial Folly," Economics Books, Princeton University Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 8973.
  29. Edwards, Sebastian & Frankel, Jeffrey A. (ed.), 2002. "Preventing Currency Crises in Emerging Markets," National Bureau of Economic Research Books, University of Chicago Press, edition 1, number 9780226184944, April.
  30. Catherine L. Mann, 1999. "Is the U.S. Trade Deficit Sustainable?," Peterson Institute Press: All Books, Peterson Institute for International Economics, number 47.
  31. repec:cto:journl:v:20:y:2000:i:2:p:179-213 is not listed on IDEAS
  32. Sebastian Edwards & Jeffrey A. Frankel, 2002. "Preventing Currency Crises in Emerging Markets," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number edwa02-2, octubre-d.
  33. Ricardo Hausmann & Michael Gavin & Carmen Pagés-Serra & Ernesto H. Stein, 1999. "Financial Turmoil and Choice of Exchange Rate Regime," Research Department Publications 4170, Inter-American Development Bank, Research Department.
  34. Jay C. Shambaugh, 2004. "The Effect of Fixed Exchange Rates on Monetary Policy," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 119(1), pages 300-351, February.
  35. Zeljko Bogetic, 2005. "Official Dollarization: Current Experiences and Issues, Cato Journal, Vol. 20, No. 2 (Fall 2000), 179-213," International Finance 0510006, EconWPA.
  36. Juan Luis Moreno-Villalaz, 1999. "Lessons from the Monetary Experience of Panama: A Dollar Economy with Financial Integration," Cato Journal, Cato Journal, Cato Institute, vol. 18(3), pages 421-439, Winter.
  37. Andrew K. Rose & Eric van Wincoop, 2001. "National Money as a Barrier to International Trade: The Real Case for Currency Union," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 91(2), pages 386-390, May.
  38. Ilan Goldfajn & Gino Olivares, 2001. "Full Dollarization: The Case of Panama," JOURNAL OF LACEA ECONOMIA, LACEA - LATIN AMERICAN AND CARIBBEAN ECONOMIC ASSOCIATION.
  39. Dale Bails and Margie A. Tieslau, 2000. "The Impact of Fiscal Constitutions on State and Local Expenditures," Cato Journal, Cato Journal, Cato Institute, vol. 20(2), Fall.
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Cited by:
  1. Erick Lahura & Marco Vega, 2013. "Regímenes cambiarios y desempeño macroeconómico: una evaluación de la literatura," Documentos de Trabajo 2013-361, Departamento de Economía - Pontificia Universidad Católica del Perú.

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