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O impacto das commodities sobre a dinâmica da inflação no Brasil e o papel amortecedor do câmbio: evidências para o CRB Índex e Índice de Commodities Brasil [The impact of commodities on Brazilian inflationary dynamics and the smoothing role of the exchange rate: evidences for the CRB Index and Commodity Index Brazil]

Author

Listed:
  • Marcos Stockl

    (UFES)

  • Ricardo Ramalhete Moreira

    (UFES)

  • Ana Carolina Giuberti

    (UFES)

Abstract

This article investigates the impacts of shocks in commodity prices, measured by the CRB and IC-Br indexes, on the inflationary dynamics in Brazil, from January 2005 to December 2013, using vector autoregressive (VAR) models. Specifically, the role of the nominal exchange rate was tested as a smoothing mechanism for inflationary effects of those shocks. The main results were the following: (i) Both indexes are robust for anticipating consumer prices changes in Brazil; (ii) the CRB index is more suitable to express the inverse correlation of commodities prices and the nominal exchange rate in Brazil; (iii) the exchange rate changes caused by shocks in commodity prices are, as expected by the literature, an important mechanism to smooth the induced inflationary pressure.

Suggested Citation

  • Marcos Stockl & Ricardo Ramalhete Moreira & Ana Carolina Giuberti, 2017. "O impacto das commodities sobre a dinâmica da inflação no Brasil e o papel amortecedor do câmbio: evidências para o CRB Índex e Índice de Commodities Brasil [The impact of commodities on Brazilian inf," Nova Economia, Economics Department, Universidade Federal de Minas Gerais (Brazil), vol. 27(1), pages 173-207, January-A.
    • Handle: RePEc:nov:artigo:v:27:y:2017:i:1:p:173-207
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    commodities prices; inflation; exchange rate; CRB; IC-Br;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy

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