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The Impact of Foreign Interest Rates on the Economy: The Role of the Exchange Rate Regime

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Jay C. Shambaugh
Julian di Giovanni

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Abstract

It is often argued that small economies are affected by conditions in large countries. This paper explores the connection between interest rates in major industrial countries and annual real output growth in other countries. The results show that high large-country interest rates have a contractionary effect on annual real GDP growth in the domestic economy, but that this effect is centered on countries with fixed exchange rates. The paper then examines the potential channels through which large-country interest rates affect small economies. The direct monetary policy channel is the most likely channel when compared with other possibilities, such as a general capital market effect or a trade effect.

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Paper provided by IIIS in its series The Institute for International Integration Studies Discussion Paper Series with number iiisdp116.

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Date of creation: 05 Apr 2006
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Handle: RePEc:iis:dispap:iiisdp116

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F3 - International Economics - - International Finance
F4 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance

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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Lane, Philip R. & Shambaugh, Jay C, 2008. "The Long or Short of it: Determinants of Foreign Currency Exposure in External Balance Sheets," CEPR Discussion Papers 6887, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  2. César Calderón & Klaus Schmidt-Hebbel, 2008. "Business Cycles and Fiscal Policies: the Role of Institutions and financial Markets," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 481, Central Bank of Chile. [Downloadable!]
  3. Masami Imai & Seitaro Takarabe, 2009. "Bank Integration and Local Credit Cycle:Evidence from Japan," Wesleyan Economics Working Papers 2009-002, Wesleyan University, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
  4. Nicola Cetorelli & Linda S. Goldberg, 2008. "Banking Globalization, Monetary Transmission, and the Lending Channel," NBER Working Papers 14101, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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