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Does the Current Account Matter?

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Author Info
Sebastian Edwards

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Abstract

The purpose of this paper is to investigate in detail the behavior of the current account in emerging economies, and in particular its role if any in financial crises. Models of current account behavior are reviewed, and a dynamic model of current account sustainability is developed. The empirical analysis is based on a massive data set that covers over 120 countries during more than 25 years. Important controversies related to the current account including the extent to which current account deficits help predict currency crises are also analyzed. Throughout the paper I am interested in analyzing whether there is evidence supporting the idea that there are costs involved in running 'very large' deficits. Moreover, I investigate the nature of these potential costs, including whether they are particularly high in the presence of other type of imbalances.

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Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 8275.

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Date of creation: May 2001
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Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:8275

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
F3 - International Economics - - International Finance
F32 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Current Account Adjustment; Short-term Capital Movements

References listed on IDEAS
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  1. Sebastian Edwards, 1989. "Structural Adjustment Policies in Highly Indebted Countries," NBER Chapters, in: Developing Country Debt and Economic Performance, Volume 1: The International Financial System, pages 159-208 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!]
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  2. Barry Eichengreen & Andrew K. Rose & Charles Wyplosz, 1996. "Contagious Currency Crises," NBER Working Papers 5681, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  3. Fischer, Stanley, 1988. "Real Balances, the Exchange Rate, and Indexation: Real Variables in Disinflation," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 103(1), pages 27-49, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. de Cordoba, Gonzalo Fernandez & Kehoe, Timothy J., 2000. "Capital flows and real exchange rate fluctuations following Spain's entry into the European Community," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(1), pages 49-78, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. Karen K. Lewis, 1999. "Trying to Explain Home Bias in Equities and Consumption," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 37(2), pages 571-608, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. Ghosh, Atish R & Ostry, Jonathan D, 1995. "The Current Account in Developing Countries: A Perspective from the Consumption-Smoothing Approach," World Bank Economic Review, Oxford University Press, vol. 9(2), pages 305-33, May.
  7. Frankel, Jeffrey A. & Rose, Andrew K., 1996. "Currency crashes in emerging markets: An empirical treatment," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 41(3-4), pages 351-366, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  8. Sheffrin, Steven M. & Woo, Wing Thye, 1990. "Testing an optimizing model of the current account via the consumption function," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 9(2), pages 220-233, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  9. Reinhart, Carmen & Goldstein, Morris & Kaminsky, Graciela, 2000. "Assessing financial vulnerability, an early warning system for emerging markets: Introduction," MPRA Paper 13629, University Library of Munich, Germany. [Downloadable!]
  10. Giancarlo Corsetti & Paolo Pesenti & Nouriel Roubini, 1998. "Paper tigers? A model of the Asian crisis," Research Paper 9822, Federal Reserve Bank of New York. [Downloadable!]
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  11. Edwards, Sebastian, 1996. "Why are Latin America's savings rates so low? An international comparative analysis," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(1), pages 5-44, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  12. Roberto Chang & Andres Velasco, 2000. "Exchange-Rate Policy for Developing Countries," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 90(2), pages 71-75, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  13. Pedro Aspe Armella & Rudiger Dornbusch & Maurice Obstfeld, 1983. "Financial Policies and the World Capital Market: The Problem of Latin American Countries," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number arme83-1.
  14. Morris, Stephen, 2000. "Contagion," Review of Economic Studies, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 67(1), pages 57-78, January.
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  15. Gian Maria Milesi-Ferrett & Assaf Razin, 1997. "Sharp Reductions in Current Account Deficits: An Empirical Analyis," NBER Working Papers 6310, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  16. Lawrence H. Summers, 2000. "International Financial Crises: Causes, Prevention, and Cures," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 90(2), pages 1-16, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  17. Bacchetta, Philippe & van Wincoop, Eric, 2000. "Trade in nominal assets and net international capital flows," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 19(1), pages 55-72, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  18. Gian Maria Milesi-Ferrett & Assaf Razin, 1996. "Sustainability of Persistent Current Account Deficits," NBER Working Papers 5467, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  19. Steven B. Kamin, 1988. "Devaluation, exchange controls, and black markets for foreign exchange in developing countries," International Finance Discussion Papers 334, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
  20. Stanley Fischer, 1988. "Real Balances, the Exchange Rate and Indexation: Real Variables in Disinflation," NBER Working Papers 1497, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  21. Andrew Atkeson & Jose-Victor Rios-Rull, 1996. "The balance of payments and borrowing constraints: an alternative view of the Mexican crisis," Staff Report 212, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis. [Downloadable!]
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  22. Sebastian Edwards, 1999. "Crisis Prevention: Lessons from Mexico and East Asia," NBER Working Papers 7233, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  23. Sebastian Edwards & Julio Santaella, 1993. "Devaluation Controversies in the Developing Countries: Lessons from the Bretton Woods Era," NBER Chapters, in: A Retrospective on the Bretton Woods System: Lessons for International Monetary Reform, pages 405-460 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!]
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  24. Sebastian Edwards, 2000. "Contagion," The World Economy, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 23(7), pages 873-900, 07. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  25. Loayza, Norman & Schmidt-Hebbel, Klaus & Serven, Luis, 2000. "What drives private saving around the world?," Policy Research Working Paper Series 2309, The World Bank. [Downloadable!]
  26. Norman Loayza & Klaus Schmidt-Hebbel & Luis Servén, 1999. "What Drives Private Saving Across the World?," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 47, Central Bank of Chile. [Downloadable!]
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  27. Heckman, James J & Ichimura, Hidehiko & Todd, Petra, 1998. "Matching as an Econometric Evaluation Estimator," Review of Economic Studies, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 65(2), pages 261-94, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  28. Heckman, James J & Ichimura, Hidehiko & Todd, Petra E, 1997. "Matching as an Econometric Evaluation Estimator: Evidence from Evaluating a Job Training Programme," Review of Economic Studies, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 64(4), pages 605-54, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  29. Edwards, Sebastian & van Wijnbergen, Sweder, 1986. "The Welfare Effects of Trade and Capital Market Liberalization," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 27(1), pages 141-48, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  30. Franklin Allen & Douglas Gale, 2000. "Optimal Currency Crises," Center for Financial Institutions Working Papers 00-23, Wharton School Center for Financial Institutions, University of Pennsylvania. [Downloadable!]
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  31. Guillermo Calvo & Carmen Reinhart & Leonardo Leiderman, 1992. "Capital Inflows and Real Exchange Rate Appreciation in Latin America: The Role of External Factors," IMF Working Papers 92/62, International Monetary Fund.
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  32. Orazio P. Attanasio & Lucio Picci & Antonello E. Scorcu, 2000. "Saving, Growth, and Investment: A Macroeconomic Analysis Using a Panel of Countries," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 82(2), pages 182-211, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  33. Michael D. Bordo & Barry Eichengreen, 1993. "A Retrospective on the Bretton Woods System: Lessons for International Monetary Reform," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number bord93-1.
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