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Does the Current Account Matter?

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Author Info
Sebastian Edwards

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Abstract

The purpose of this paper is to investigate in detail the behavior of the current account in emerging economies, and in particular its role if any in financial crises. Models of current account behavior are reviewed, and a dynamic model of current account sustainability is developed. The empirical analysis is based on a massive data set that covers over 120 countries during more than 25 years. Important controversies related to the current account including the extent to which current account deficits help predict currency crises are also analyzed. Throughout the paper I am interested in analyzing whether there is evidence supporting the idea that there are costs involved in running 'very large' deficits. Moreover, I investigate the nature of these potential costs, including whether they are particularly high in the presence of other type of imbalances.

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Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 8275.

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Date of creation: May 2001
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Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:8275

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
F3 - International Economics - - International Finance
F32 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Current Account Adjustment; Short-term Capital Movements

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

  1. Barry Eichengreen & Andrew K. Rose & Charles Wyplosz, 1996. "Contagious Currency Crises," NBER Working Papers 5681, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  2. Gian Maria Milesi-Ferrett & Assaf Razin, 1996. "Sustainability of Persistent Current Account Deficits," NBER Working Papers 5467, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. Giancarlo Corsetti & Paolo Pesenti & Nouriel Roubini, 1998. "Paper Tigers? A Model of the Asian Crisis," NBER Working Papers 6783, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  4. Steven B. Kamin, 1988. "Devaluation, exchange controls, and black markets for foreign exchange in developing countries," International Finance Discussion Papers 334, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  5. Fischer, Stanley, 1988. "Real Balances, the Exchange Rate, and Indexation: Real Variables in Disinflation," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 103(1), pages 27-49, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. de Cordoba, Gonzalo Fernandez & Kehoe, Timothy J., 2000. "Capital flows and real exchange rate fluctuations following Spain's entry into the European Community," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(1), pages 49-78, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  7. Ghosh, Atish R & Ostry, Jonathan D, 1995. "The Current Account in Developing Countries: A Perspective from the Consumption-Smoothing Approach," World Bank Economic Review, Oxford University Press, vol. 9(2), pages 305-33, May.
  8. Frankel, Jeffrey A. & Rose, Andrew K., 1996. "Currency crashes in emerging markets: An empirical treatment," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 41(3-4), pages 351-366, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  9. Stanley Fischer, 1988. "Real Balances, the Exchange Rate and Indexation: Real Variables in Disinflation," NBER Working Papers 1497, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  10. Andrew Atkeson & Jose-Victor Rios-Rull, 1996. "The balance of payments and borrowing constraints: an alternative view of the Mexican crisis," Staff Report 212, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  11. Sebastian Edwards, 1999. "Crisis Prevention: Lessons from Mexico and East Asia," NBER Working Papers 7233, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  12. Sebastian Edwards, 2000. "Contagion," The World Economy, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 23(7), pages 873-900, 07. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  13. Loayza, Norman & Schmidt-Hebbel, Klaus & Serven, Luis, 2000. "What drives private saving around the world?," Policy Research Working Paper Series 2309, The World Bank. [Downloadable!]
  14. Norman Loayza & Klaus Schmidt-Hebbel & Luis Servén, 1999. "What Drives Private Saving Across the World?," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 47, Central Bank of Chile. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  15. Sheffrin, Steven M. & Woo, Wing Thye, 1990. "Testing an optimizing model of the current account via the consumption function," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 9(2), pages 220-233, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  16. Heckman, James J & Ichimura, Hidehiko & Todd, Petra, 1998. "Matching as an Econometric Evaluation Estimator," Review of Economic Studies, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 65(2), pages 261-94, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  17. Edwards, Sebastian, 1996. "Why are Latin America's savings rates so low? An international comparative analysis," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(1), pages 5-44, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  18. Heckman, James J & Ichimura, Hidehiko & Todd, Petra E, 1997. "Matching as an Econometric Evaluation Estimator: Evidence from Evaluating a Job Training Programme," Review of Economic Studies, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 64(4), pages 605-54, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  19. Roberto Chang & Andres Velasco, 2000. "Exchange-Rate Policy for Developing Countries," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 90(2), pages 71-75, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  20. Sebastian Edwards, 1989. "Structural Adjustment Policies in Highly Indebted Countries," NBER Working Papers 2502, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  21. Edwards, Sebastian & van Wijnbergen, Sweder, 1986. "The Welfare Effects of Trade and Capital Market Liberalization," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 27(1), pages 141-48, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  22. Franklin Allen & Douglas Gale, 2000. "Optimal Currency Crises," Center for Financial Institutions Working Papers 00-23, Wharton School Center for Financial Institutions, University of Pennsylvania. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  23. Morris, Stephen, 2000. "Contagion," Review of Economic Studies, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 67(1), pages 57-78, January.
    Other versions:
  24. Gian Maria Milesi-Ferrett & Assaf Razin, 1997. "Sharp Reductions in Current Account Deficits: An Empirical Analyis," NBER Working Papers 6310, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  25. Guillermo Calvo & Carmen Reinhart & Leonardo Leiderman, 1992. "Capital Inflows and Real Exchange Rate Appreciation in Latin America: The Role of External Factors," IMF Working Papers 92/62, International Monetary Fund.
    Other versions:
  26. Lawrence H. Summers, 2000. "International Financial Crises: Causes, Prevention, and Cures," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 90(2), pages 1-16, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  27. Orazio P. Attanasio & Lucio Picci & Antonello E. Scorcu, 2000. "Saving, Growth, and Investment: A Macroeconomic Analysis Using a Panel of Countries," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 82(2), pages 182-211, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  28. Bacchetta, Philippe & van Wincoop, Eric, 2000. "Trade in nominal assets and net international capital flows," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 19(1), pages 55-72, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
Full references

Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Federico Sturzenegger, 2002. "Toolkit for the Analysis of Debt Problems," Business School Working Papers veinte, Universidad Torcuato Di Tella. [Downloadable!]
  2. Dr Anthony J. Makin, 2003. "Feasible Limits For External Deficits And Debt," Discussion Papers Series 321, School of Economics, University of Queensland, Australia. [Downloadable!]
  3. Diego Valderrama, 2002. "The impact of financial frictions on a small open economy: when current account borrowing hits a limit," Working Papers in Applied Economic Theory 2002-15, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco. [Downloadable!]
  4. Caroline Freund & Frank Warnock, 2005. "Current Account Deficits in Industrial Countries: The Bigger They are, the Harder They Fall?," NBER Working Papers 11823, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. Aßmann, Christian, 2008. "Assessing the Effect of Current Account and Currency Crises on Economic Growth," Economics working papers 2008,01, Christian-Albrechts-University of Kiel, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
  6. J. Bradford DeLong & Barry Eichengreen, 2001. "Between Meltdown and Moral Hazard: The International Monetary and Financial Policies of the Clinton Administration," NBER Working Papers 8443, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  7. Philip R. Lane & Gian Milesi-Ferretti, 2001. "Long-Term Capital Movements," NBER Working Papers 8366, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  8. Ahmad Zubaidi Baharumshah & Evan Lau & Ahmed M. Khalid, 2005. "Testing Twin Deficits Hypothesis: Using VARs and Variance Decomposition," International Finance 0504001, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]
  9. Evan Lau & Ahmad Zubaidi Baharumshah, 2005. "Assessing The Mean Reversion Behavior Of Fiscal Policy: The Case Of Asian Countries," Macroeconomics 0504002, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]
  10. Radulescu, Magdalena, 2006. "The Impact of the National Bank of Romania's Monetary Policy on the Banking Credits, the Domestic Savings and Investments (As Compared to the Other Central and Eastern European Countries)," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 3(2), pages 10-31, June. [Downloadable!]
  11. Sebastian Edwards, 2001. "Dollarization and Economic Performance: An Empirical Investigation," NBER Working Papers 8274, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  12. Komarek, Lubos & Komarkova, Zlatuse & Melecky, Martin, 2005. "Current Account Reversals and Growth: The Direct Effect Central and Eastern Europe 1923-2000," The Warwick Economics Research Paper Series (TWERPS) 736, University of Warwick, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
  13. Bugamelli, Matteo & Paterno, Francesco, 2005. "Do workers'remittances reduce the probability of current account reversals ?," Policy Research Working Paper Series 3766, The World Bank. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  14. Chriatian Just, 2004. "The International Financial Architecture: Official Proposals on Crisis Resolution and the Role of the Private Sector," Monetary Policy & the Economy, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank), issue 1, pages 73-89, May. [Downloadable!]
  15. Ahmad Zubaidi Baharumshah & Evan Lau, 2005. "Budget and Current Account Deficits in SEACEN Countries: Evidence Based on the Panel Approach," International Finance 0504002, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]
  16. Yilmaz Akyüz, 2007. "Debt Sustainability in Emerging Markets: A Critical Appraisal," Working Papers 61, United Nations, Department of Economics and Social Affairs. [Downloadable!]
  17. Alexandra Tabova, 2005. "On the feasibility and desirability of GDP-indexed concessional lending," Department of Economics Working Papers 0509, Department of Economics, University of Trento, Italia. [Downloadable!]
  18. Komarek, Lubos & Melecky, Martin, 2005. "Currency Crises, Current Account Reversals and Growth : The Compounded Effect for Emerging Markets," The Warwick Economics Research Paper Series (TWERPS) 735, University of Warwick, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
  19. Federico Sturzenegger, 2002. "Defaults in the 90´s: Factbook and Preliminary Lessons," Business School Working Papers veintidos, Universidad Torcuato Di Tella. [Downloadable!]
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