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Estimation Of The Equilibrium Real Exchange Rate For South Africa

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  • RONALD MACDONALD
  • LUCA ANTONIO RICCI

Abstract

Based on the Johansen cointegration estimation methodology, much of the long-run behavior of the real effective exchange rate of South Africa can be explained by real interest rate differentials, GDP per capita (both relative to trading partners), real commodity prices, trade openness, the fiscal balance, and the extent of net foreign assets. On the basis of these fundamentals, the real exchange rate in early 2002 was found to be significantly more depreciated with respect to the estimated equilibrium level. The half-life of the deviation of the real exchange rate from the estimated equilibrium one was found to be somewhat more than two years.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Economic Society of South Africa in its journal South African Journal of Economics.

Volume (Year): 72 (2004)
Issue (Month): 2 (06)
Pages: 282-304

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Handle: RePEc:bla:sajeco:v:72:y:2004:i:2:p:282-304

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  1. Johansen, Soren, 1988. "Statistical analysis of cointegration vectors," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 12(2-3), pages 231-254.
  2. Paruolo, Paolo, 1997. "Asymptotic Inference on the Moving Average Impact Matrix in Cointegrated 1(1) VAR Systems," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 13(01), pages 79-118, February.
  3. Y.Chen & K. Rogoff, 2003. "Commodity Currencies and Empirical Exchange Rate Puzzles," DNB Staff Reports (discontinued) 76, Netherlands Central Bank.
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  7. Kenneth Rogoff, 1996. "The Purchasing Power Parity Puzzle," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 34(2), pages 647-668, June.
  8. Sarno, Lucio & Taylor, Mark P, 2001. "Purchasing Power Parity and the Real Exchange Rate," CEPR Discussion Papers 2913, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  9. Ronald Macdonald, 1995. "Long-Run Exchange Rate Modeling: A Survey of the Recent Evidence," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 42(3), pages 437-489, September.
  10. Ronald MacDonald, 1995. "Long-Run Exchange Rate Modeling," IMF Working Papers 95/14, International Monetary Fund.
  11. Dornbusch, Rudiger, 1976. "Expectations and Exchange Rate Dynamics," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 84(6), pages 1161-76, December.
  12. Ilan Goldfajn & Rodrigo O. ValdŽs, 1999. "The Aftermath Of Appreciations," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 114(1), pages 229-262, February.
  13. Phillips, Peter C B & Hansen, Bruce E, 1990. "Statistical Inference in Instrumental Variables Regression with I(1) Processes," Review of Economic Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 57(1), pages 99-125, January.
  14. Bela Balassa, 1964. "The Purchasing-Power Parity Doctrine: A Reappraisal," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 72, pages 584.
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