Determination of the Real Exchange Rate of the Ruble and Assessment of Long-Run Policy of Real Exchange Rate Targeting
AbstractThe equilibrium real exchange rate of the Russian ruble is estimated for the period from the early 1995 to the early 2008. According to the methodological approach proposed by Edwards (1988), the equilibrium real exchange rate is a function of a set of fundamental variables (a so-called "reduced form equation"). In order to estimate an equilibrium real exchange rate, a set of fundamentals was selected: terms of trade; productivity differential; fiscal policy variable. Estimation was performed in a co-integrated VAR framework using the Johansen co-integration test. The speed of adjustment of the actual real exchange rate to the equilibrium real exchange rate as well as the influence of monetary policy and private capital flows on the short-run dynamics of real exchange rate is explored.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
Bibliographic InfoArticle provided by New Economic Association in its journal Journal of the New Economic Association.
Volume (Year): (2009)
Issue (Month): 3-4 ()
Contact details of provider:
Postal: Nakhimovsky prospekt, 32, Office 1115, 117218 Moscow Russia
Phone: +7 495 7189855
Fax: +7 495 7189855
Web page: http://www.econorus.org/english.phtml
More information through EDIRC
Equilibrium exchange rate; cointegrated var framework; real exchange rate misalignment; a half life;
Find related papers by JEL classification:
- C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
- F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
- F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Sebastian Edwards, 1988.
"Real and Monetary Determinants of Real Exchange Rate Behavior: Theory and Evidence From Developing Countries,"
NBER Working Papers
2721, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Edwards, Sebastian, 1988. "Real and monetary determinants of real exchange rate behavior: Theory and evidence from developing countries," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 29(3), pages 311-341, November.
- Sebastion Edwards, 1988. "Real and Monetary Determinants of Real Exchange Rate Behavior: Theory and Evidence from Developing Countries," UCLA Economics Working Papers 506, UCLA Department of Economics.
- Mkenda, Beatrice Kalinda, 2001. "Long-run and Short-run Determinants of the Real Exchange Rate in Zambia," Working Papers in Economics 40, University of Gothenburg, Department of Economics.
- Kenneth Rogoff, 1996. "The Purchasing Power Parity Puzzle," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 34(2), pages 647-668, June.
- Johansen, Soren & Juselius, Katarina, 1990. "Maximum Likelihood Estimation and Inference on Cointegration--With Applications to the Demand for Money," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 52(2), pages 169-210, May.
- Piritta Sorsa & Dimitar Chobanov, 2004. "Competitiveness in Bulgaria," IMF Working Papers 04/37, International Monetary Fund.
- Ronald MacDonald & Peter B. Clark, 1998. "Exchange Rates and Economic Fundamentals," IMF Working Papers 98/67, International Monetary Fund.
- Sossounov, Kirill & Ushakov, Nikolay, 2009. "Determination of the real exchange rate of rouble and assessment of long-rum policy of real exchange rate targeting," MPRA Paper 18549, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- International Monetary Fund, 2003. "The Equilibrium Real Exchange Rate in a Commodity Exporting Country," IMF Working Papers 03/93, International Monetary Fund.
- Ronald MacDonald & Luca Antonio Ricci, 2003.
"Estimation of the Equilibrium Real Exchange Rate for South Africa,"
IMF Working Papers
03/44, International Monetary Fund.
- Ronald Macdonald & Luca Antonio Ricci, 2004. "Estimation Of The Equilibrium Real Exchange Rate For South Africa," South African Journal of Economics, Economic Society of South Africa, vol. 72(2), pages 282-304, 06.
- Jemma Dridi & Maher Hasan, 2008. "The Impact of Oil-Related Incomeon the Equilibrium Real Exchange Rate in Syria," IMF Working Papers 08/196, International Monetary Fund.
- Johansen, Soren, 1988. "Statistical analysis of cointegration vectors," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 12(2-3), pages 231-254.
- Joannes Mongardini, 1998. "Estimating Egypt's Equilibrium Real Exchange Rate," IMF Working Papers 98/5, International Monetary Fund.
- Trigueros, Ignacio, 1988. "Comments on real and monetary determinants of real exchange rate behavior: Theory and evidence from developing countries by Sebastian Edwards," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 29(3), pages 343-345, November.
- Sebastian Edwards & Miguel A. Savastano, 1999. "Exchange Rates in Emerging Economies: What Do We Know? What Do We Need to Know?," NBER Working Papers 7228, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Thierry Buchs, 2005. "Equilibrium Real Exchange Rate In Brazil Estimation And Policy Implications," International Trade 0502013, EconWPA.
- Katerina Kalcheva & Nienke Oomes, 2007. "Diagnosing Dutch Disease," IMF Working Papers 07/102, International Monetary Fund.
- Zhang, Zhichao, 2001. "Real Exchange Rate Misalignment in China: An Empirical Investigation," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 29(1), pages 80-94, March.
- Claudio Paiva, 2001. "Competitiveness and the Equilibrium Exchange Rate in Costa Rica," IMF Working Papers 01/23, International Monetary Fund.
- Bernd Schnatz & Focco Vijsellaar & Chiara Osbat, 2004. "Productivity and the Euro-Dollar exchange rate," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer, vol. 140(1), pages 1-30, March.
- Dornbusch, Rudiger, 1976. "Expectations and Exchange Rate Dynamics," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 84(6), pages 1161-76, December.
- Elena Loukoianova & Plamen Iossifov, 2007. "Estimation of a Behavioral Equilibrium Exchange Rate Model for Ghana," IMF Working Papers 07/155, International Monetary Fund.
- Johansen, Soren, 1991. "Estimation and Hypothesis Testing of Cointegration Vectors in Gaussian Vector Autoregressive Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 59(6), pages 1551-80, November.
- Bela Balassa, 1964. "The Purchasing-Power Parity Doctrine: A Reappraisal," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 72, pages 584.
- Taline Koranchelian, 2005. "The Equilibrium Real Exchange Rate in a Commodity Exporting Country," IMF Working Papers 05/135, International Monetary Fund.
- Shumilov, Andrei & Sosunov, Kirill, 2005.
"Оценивание Равновесного Реального Обменного Курса Российского Рубля
[Estimation of the Equilibrium Real Exchange Rate for Russia]," MPRA Paper 42978, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Oomes , Nienke & Kalcheva, Katerina, 2007. "Diagnosing Dutch disease: Does Russia have the symptoms?," BOFIT Discussion Papers 7/2007, Bank of Finland, Institute for Economies in Transition.
- Habib, Maurizio Michael & Kalamova, Margarita Manolova, 2007. "Are there oil currencies? The real exchange rate of oil exporting countries," Working Paper Series 0839, European Central Bank.
- Johan Mathisen, 2003. "Estimation of the Equilibrium Real Exchange Rate for Malawi," IMF Working Papers 03/104, International Monetary Fund.
- Joannes Mongardini & Alexander Chudik, 2007. "In Search of Equilibrium," IMF Working Papers 07/90, International Monetary Fund.
- Hinkle, Lawrence E. & Monteil, Peter J. (ed.), 1999. "Exchange Rate Misalignment: Concepts and Measurement for Developing Countries," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780195211269, October.
- Dülger, Fikret & Lopcu, Kenan & Burgaç, Almıla & Ballı, Esra, 2013. "Is Russia suffering from Dutch Disease? Cointegration with structural break," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 38(4), pages 605-612.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Alexey Tcharykov).
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.