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Unraveling the complex interrelationships between exchange rates and fundamentals

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  • Murphy, Austin
  • Zhu, Yun (Ellen)
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    Abstract

    This research investigates the intrinsic characteristics of currency values by fundamentally decomposing investor expectations on 16 currencies. The results on 195 exchange rates over several decades indicate investors perceive countries to be more likely to choose devaluation solutions to BOP problems when inflation is lower and when an alternative drop in real income growth is more "painful". In addition, empirical support is provided for the hypothesis that forward rates often appear biased because the distributional expectations incorporated into them include, for a country with a current account deficit, a small probability of a large spot decline that does not actually occur in most finite samples.

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    Bibliographic Info

    Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Journal of Banking & Finance.

    Volume (Year): 32 (2008)
    Issue (Month): 6 (June)
    Pages: 1150-1160

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    Handle: RePEc:eee:jbfina:v:32:y:2008:i:6:p:1150-1160

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    Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/jbf

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    1. Fukuta, Yuichi & Saito, Makoto, 2002. "Forward Discount Puzzle and Liquidity Effects: Some Evidence from Exchange Rates among the United States, Canada, and Japan," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 34(4), pages 1014-33, November.
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    4. Hairault, Jean-Olivier & Patureau, Lise & Sopraseuth, Thepthida, 2003. "Overshooting and the exchange rate disconnect puzzle: a reappraisal," CEPREMAP Working Papers (Couverture Orange) 0305, CEPREMAP.
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    8. Froot, Kenneth A. & Frankel, Jeffrey A., 1988. "Forward Discount Bias: Is It an Exchange Risk Premium?," Department of Economics, Working Paper Series qt5w65g4zg, Department of Economics, Institute for Business and Economic Research, UC Berkeley.
    9. Jean-Pierre DANTHINE & John B. DONALDSON & Paolo SICONOLFI, 2005. "Distribution Risk and Equity Returns," FAME Research Paper Series rp161, International Center for Financial Asset Management and Engineering.
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    12. Jean-Olivier Hairault & Lise Patureau & Thepthida Sopraseuth, 2004. "Overshooting and Exchange Rate Disconnect Puzzle: A Reappraisal," Macroeconomics 0410001, EconWPA.
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    15. Husted, Steven & MacDonald, Ronald, 1999. "The Asian currency crash: were badly driven fundamentals to blame?," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 10(4), pages 537-550.
    16. Crowder, William J. & Phengpis, Chanwit, 2007. "A re-examination of international inflation convergence over the modern float," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 17(2), pages 125-139, April.
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    Cited by:
    1. Tigran Poghosyan & Evzen Kocenda, 2007. "Macroeconomic Sources of Foreign Exchange Risk in New EU Members," William Davidson Institute Working Papers Series wp898, William Davidson Institute at the University of Michigan.
    2. Georgios Chortareas & George Kapetanios, 2004. "Getting PPP Right: Identifying Mean-Reverting Real Exchange Rates in Panels," Working Papers 517, Queen Mary, University of London, School of Economics and Finance.
    3. Mun, Kyung-Chun, 2012. "The joint response of stock and foreign exchange markets to macroeconomic surprises: Using US and Japanese data," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 36(2), pages 383-394.

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