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The Impact of FX Central Bank Intervention in a Noise Trading Framework

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  • Michel Beine
  • Paul De Grauwe
  • Marianna Grimaldi

Abstract

In this paper we investigate the effects of central bank interventions (CBI) in a noise trading model with chartists and fundamentalists. We first estimate a model in which chartists extrapolate past returns and fundamentalists forecast a mean reverting dynamics of the exchange rate towards a fundamental value. Then, we investigate the role of central bank interventions in explaining the switching properties between the two types of agents. We find evidence that in the medium run, interventions increase the proportion of fundamentalists and therefore exert some stabilizing influence on the exchange rate.

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Paper provided by CESifo Group Munich in its series CESifo Working Paper Series with number 1520.

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Date of creation: 2005
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Handle: RePEc:ces:ceswps:_1520

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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Szafarz, Ariane, 2012. "Financial crises in efficient markets: How fundamentalists fuel volatility," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 36(1), pages 105-111.
  2. Charles, Amélie & Darné, Olivier & Kim, Jae H., 2012. "Exchange-rate return predictability and the adaptive markets hypothesis: Evidence from major foreign exchange rates," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 31(6), pages 1607-1626.
  3. Chuluun, Tuugi & Eun, Cheol S. & Kiliç, Rehim, 2011. "Investment intensity of currencies and the random walk hypothesis: Cross-currency evidence," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 35(2), pages 372-387, February.
  4. Lee, Hsiu-Yun, 2011. "Nonlinear exchange rate dynamics under stochastic official intervention," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 28(4), pages 1510-1518, July.
  5. Christian D. Dick & Lukas Menkhoff, 2013. "Exchange Rate Expectations of Chartists and Fundamentalists," CESifo Working Paper Series 4181, CESifo Group Munich.
  6. Albert Wang, F., 2010. "Informed arbitrage with speculative noise trading," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 34(2), pages 304-313, February.
  7. Daniela Federici & Giancarlo Gandolfo, 2011. "The Euro/Dollar Exchange Rate: Chaotic or Non-Chaotic?," CESifo Working Paper Series 3420, CESifo Group Munich.
  8. Federici, Daniela & Gandolfo, Giancarlo, 2012. "The Euro/Dollar exchange rate: Chaotic or non-chaotic? A continuous time model with heterogeneous beliefs," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 36(4), pages 670-681.
  9. Kocenda, Evzen & Poghosyan, Tigran, 2009. "Macroeconomic sources of foreign exchange risk in new EU members," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 33(11), pages 2164-2173, November.
  10. Beine, Michel & Janssen, Gust & Lecourt, Christelle, 2009. "Should central bankers talk to the foreign exchange markets?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 28(5), pages 776-803, September.
  11. Rosa, Carlo, 2011. "The high-frequency response of exchange rates to monetary policy actions and statements," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 35(2), pages 478-489, February.
  12. Lee, Hsiu-Yun & Lai, Hung-Pin, 2011. "A structural threshold model of the exchange rate under optimal intervention," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 30(6), pages 931-946, October.

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