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Performance of Technical Trading Systems in the Yen/Dollar Market

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Author Info

  • Stephan Schulmeister

    (WIFO)

Abstract

The study investigates the profitability of 1,024 moving average and momentum models and their components in the yen/dollar market. It turns out that all models would have been profitable between 1976 and 1999. The pattern of profitability is as follows: the models produce more single losses than single profits, however, the size of the single profits is on average much higher than the size of single losses. Hence, the profitability of technical currency trading is exclusively due to the exploitation of persistent exchange rate trends. These results hold also when technical trading is examined over subperiods. The models which perform best over the most recent subperiod are in most cases significantly profitable also ex ante. However, the profitability of technical currency trading based on daily data has declined since the late 1980s and has disappeared over the out-of-sample period between 2000 and 2004.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by WIFO in its series WIFO Working Papers with number 291.

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Length: 22 pages
Date of creation: 16 May 2007
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:wfo:wpaper:y:2007:i:291

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Keywords: Performance of Technical Trading Systems in the Yen/Dollar Market Exchange rate; Technical trading; Speculation;

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References

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  1. Yin-Wong Cheung & Menzie D. Chinn, 2000. "Currency Traders and Exchange Rate Dynamics: A Survey of the U.S. Market," CESifo Working Paper Series 251, CESifo Group Munich.
  2. Neely, C. J. & Weller, P. A., 2003. "Intraday technical trading in the foreign exchange market," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 22(2), pages 223-237, April.
  3. Olson, Dennis, 2004. "Have trading rule profits in the currency markets declined over time?," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 28(1), pages 85-105, January.
  4. Yin-Wong Cheung & Menzie D. Chinn & Ian W. Marsh, 2004. "How do UK-based foreign exchange dealers think their market operates?," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 9(4), pages 289-306.
  5. Neely, Christopher & Weller, Paul & Dittmar, Rob, 1997. "Is Technical Analysis in the Foreign Exchange Market Profitable? A Genetic Programming Approach," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 32(04), pages 405-426, December.
  6. Thomas Gehrig & Lukas Menkhoff, 2006. "Extended evidence on the use of technical analysis in foreign exchange," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 11(4), pages 327-338.
  7. Chang, P H Kevin & Osler, Carol L, 1999. "Methodical Madness: Technical Analysis and the Irrationality of Exchange-Rate Forecasts," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 109(458), pages 636-61, October.
  8. Ryan Sullivan & Allan Timmermann & Halbert White, 1999. "Data-Snooping, Technical Trading Rule Performance, and the Bootstrap," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 54(5), pages 1647-1691, October.
  9. L. Menkhoff & M. Schlumberger, 1995. "Persistent profitability of technical analysis on foreign exchange markets?," BNL Quarterly Review, Banca Nazionale del Lavoro, vol. 48(193), pages 189-215.
  10. Bertrand Maillet & Thierry Michel, 2000. "Further insights on the puzzle of technical analysis profitability," The European Journal of Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 6(2), pages 196-224.
  11. Menkhoff, Lukas & Taylor, Mark P., 2006. "The Obstinate Passion of Foreign Exchange Professionals: Technical Analysis," Diskussionspapiere der Wirtschaftswissenschaftlichen Fakultät der Leibniz Universität Hannover dp-352, Leibniz Universität Hannover, Wirtschaftswissenschaftliche Fakultät.
  12. Gehrig, Thomas & Menkhoff, Lukas, 2004. "The use of flow analysis in foreign exchange: exploratory evidence," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 23(4), pages 573-594, June.
  13. Stephan Schulmeister, 2008. "Components of the profitability of technical currency trading," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 18(11), pages 917-930.
  14. Stephan Schulmeister, 2007. "The Profitability of Technical Stock Trading has Moved from Daily to Intraday Data," WIFO Working Papers 289, WIFO.
  15. Gencay, Ramazan, 1999. "Linear, non-linear and essential foreign exchange rate prediction with simple technical trading rules," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 47(1), pages 91-107, February.
  16. Thomas Gehrig & Lukas Menkhoff, 2005. "The Rise of Fund Managers in Foreign Exchange:Will Fundamentals Ultimately Dominate?," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 28(4), pages 519-540, 04.
  17. Gencay, Ramazan & Dacorogna, Michel & Olsen, Richard & Pictet, Olivier, 2003. "Foreign exchange trading models and market behavior," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 27(6), pages 909-935, April.
  18. Cheung, Yin-Wong & Wong, Clement Yuk-Pang, 2000. "A survey of market practitioners' views on exchange rate dynamics," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(2), pages 401-419, August.
  19. L. Menkhoff & M. Schlumberger, 1995. "Persistent profitability of technical analysis on foreign exchange markets?," Banca Nazionale del Lavoro Quarterly Review, Banca Nazionale del Lavoro, vol. 48(193), pages 189-215.
  20. Levich, Richard M. & Thomas, Lee III, 1993. "The significance of technical trading-rule profits in the foreign exchange market: a bootstrap approach," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 12(5), pages 451-474, October.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Stephan Schulmeister, 2007. "The Interaction Between the Aggregate Behaviour of Technical Trading Systems and Stock Price Dynamics," WIFO Working Papers 290, WIFO.
  2. Michel Beine & Paul De Grauwe & Marianna Grimaldi, 2005. "The Impact of FX Central Bank Intervention in a Noise Trading Framework," CESifo Working Paper Series 1520, CESifo Group Munich.

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