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Performance of Technical Trading Systems in the Yen/Dollar Market

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Author Info
Stephan Schulmeister (WIFO)

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Abstract

The study investigates the profitability of 1,024 moving average and momentum models and their components in the yen/dollar market. It turns out that all models would have been profitable between 1976 and 1999. The pattern of profitability is as follows: the models produce more single losses than single profits, however, the size of the single profits is on average much higher than the size of single losses. Hence, the profitability of technical currency trading is exclusively due to the exploitation of persistent exchange rate trends. These results hold also when technical trading is examined over subperiods. The models which perform best over the most recent subperiod are in most cases significantly profitable also ex ante. However, the profitability of technical currency trading based on daily data has declined since the late 1980s and has disappeared over the out-of-sample period between 2000 and 2004.

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Publisher Info
Paper provided by WIFO in its series WIFO Working Papers with number 291.

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Length: 22 pages
Date of creation: 16 May 2007
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Handle: RePEc:wfo:wpaper:y:2007:i:291

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Related research
Keywords: Performance of Technical Trading Systems in the Yen/Dollar Market Exchange rate; Technical trading; Speculation;

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This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports: References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Chang, P H Kevin & Osler, Carol L, 1999. "Methodical Madness: Technical Analysis and the Irrationality of Exchange-Rate Forecasts," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 109(458), pages 636-61, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. Levich, Richard M. & Thomas, Lee III, 1993. "The significance of technical trading-rule profits in the foreign exchange market: a bootstrap approach," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 12(5), pages 451-474, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. Gehrig, Thomas & Menkhoff, Lukas, 2004. "The use of flow analysis in foreign exchange: exploratory evidence," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 23(4), pages 573-594, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  4. Lukas Menkhoff & Mark P. Taylor, 2007. "The Obstinate Passion of Foreign Exchange Professionals: Technical Analysis," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 45(4), pages 936-972, December.
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  5. Gencay, Ramazan, 1999. "Linear, non-linear and essential foreign exchange rate prediction with simple technical trading rules," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 47(1), pages 91-107, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. Olson, Dennis, 2004. "Have trading rule profits in the currency markets declined over time?," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 28(1), pages 85-105, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  7. Thomas Gehrig & Lukas Menkhoff, 2005. "The Rise of Fund Managers in Foreign Exchange:Will Fundamentals Ultimately Dominate?," The World Economy, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 28(4), pages 519-540, 04. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  8. Cheung, Yin-Wong & Wong, Clement Yuk-Pang, 2000. "A survey of market practitioners' views on exchange rate dynamics," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(2), pages 401-419, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  9. Cheung, Yin-Wong & Chinn, Menzie David & Marsh, Ian W, 1999. "How Do UK-Based Foreign Exchange Dealers Think Their Market Operates?," CEPR Discussion Papers 2230, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  10. Dittmar, Robert & Neely, Christopher J & Weller, Paul, 1996. "Is Technical Analysis in the Foreign Exchange Market Profitable? A Genetic Programming Approach," CEPR Discussion Papers 1480, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  11. Neely, C. J. & Weller, P. A., 2003. "Intraday technical trading in the foreign exchange market," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 22(2), pages 223-237, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  12. Allan Timmermann & Halbert White & Ryan Sullivan, 1998. "Data-Snooping, Technical Trading, Rule Performance and the Bootstrap," FMG Discussion Papers dp303, Financial Markets Group. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  13. Stephan Schulmeister, 2007. "The Profitability of Technical Stock Trading has Moved from Daily to Intraday Data," WIFO Working Papers 289, WIFO. [Downloadable!]
  14. Thomas Gehrig & Lukas Menkhoff, 2006. "Extended evidence on the use of technical analysis in foreign exchange," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 11(4), pages 327-338. [Downloadable!]
  15. Stephan Schulmeister, 2005. "Components of the Profitability of Technical Currency Trading," WIFO Working Papers 263, WIFO. [Downloadable!]
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  16. Cheung, Yin-Wong & Chinn, Menzie David, 2001. "Currency traders and exchange rate dynamics: a survey of the US market," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 20(4), pages 439-471, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  17. Gencay, Ramazan & Dacorogna, Michel & Olsen, Richard & Pictet, Olivier, 2003. "Foreign exchange trading models and market behavior," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 27(6), pages 909-935, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
Full references

Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Stephan Schulmeister, 2007. "The Interaction Between the Aggregate Behaviour of Technical Trading Systems and Stock Price Dynamics," WIFO Working Papers 290, WIFO. [Downloadable!]
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