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Investment intensity of currencies and the random walk hypothesis: Cross-currency evidence

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  • Chuluun, Tuugi
  • Eun, Cheol S.
  • Kiliç, Rehim
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    Abstract

    This paper studies the cross-currency and temporal variations in the random walk behavior in exchange rates. We characterize currencies with relatively large investment flows as investment intensive and conjecture that the more investment intensive a currency is, the closer its exchange rate adheres to random walk. Using 29 floating bilateral USD exchange rates, we find that the higher the investment intensity, the less likely it is to reject random walk and the smaller the deviation from random walk is. However, the effect of investment intensity is non-monotonic. Application of threshold models shows that after investment intensity reaches the estimated thresholds, the level of investment intensity has no further effect on the deviation from random walk. These findings help reconcile the previous conflicting results on the random walk in exchange rates by focusing on the effect of cross-currency and temporal variations in investment intensity.

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    Bibliographic Info

    Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Journal of Banking & Finance.

    Volume (Year): 35 (2011)
    Issue (Month): 2 (February)
    Pages: 372-387

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    Handle: RePEc:eee:jbfina:v:35:y:2011:i:2:p:372-387

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    Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/jbf

    Related research

    Keywords: Exchange rate Random walk Investment intensity Variance ratio;

    References

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    Cited by:
    1. Vít Bubák & Evžen Kocenda & Filip Zikes, 2010. "Volatility Transmission in Emerging European Foreign Exchange Markets," CESifo Working Paper Series 3063, CESifo Group Munich.
    2. Fahad Almudhaf, 2014. "Testing for random walk behaviour in CIVETS exchange rates," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 21(1), pages 60-63, January.
    3. Amélie Charles & Olivier Darné & Jae H. Kim, 2010. "Exchange-Rate Return Predictability and the Adaptive Markets Hypothesis: Evidence from Major Foreign Exchange Rates," Working Papers hal-00547722, HAL.

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