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Nonlinear exchange rate dynamics under stochastic official intervention

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  • Lee, Hsiu-Yun
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    Abstract

    Many studies employ non-linear models to explain or forecast the exchange rate and find their superiority. This article builds an exchange rate model of managed float under conditional official intervention. In the model, the government minimizes social loss through a trade-off between targeting the exchange rate and lowering intervention costs. We obtain an endogenous threshold model and derive an analytical solution of the exchange rate stochastic interventions. The implication of a managed float causing a lower volatility of the exchange rate has been found by past empirical studies. Our model provides not only a justification for the central banks' conditional interventions but also a rationale for the use of regime-switching models of two states (intervention vs. non-intervention) in the empirical studies of exchange rates.

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    Bibliographic Info

    Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Economic Modelling.

    Volume (Year): 28 (2011)
    Issue (Month): 4 (July)
    Pages: 1510-1518

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    Handle: RePEc:eee:ecmode:v:28:y:2011:i:4:p:1510-1518

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    Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/30411

    Related research

    Keywords: Sterilized intervention Exchange rate dynamics Managed float Regime-switching;

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    Cited by:
    1. Lee, Hsiu-Yun & Lai, Hung-Pin, 2011. "A structural threshold model of the exchange rate under optimal intervention," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 30(6), pages 931-946, October.
    2. Su, Jen-Je & Cheung, Adrian (Wai-Kong) & Roca, Eduardo, 2014. "Does Purchasing Power Parity hold? New evidence from wild-bootstrapped nonlinear unit root tests in the presence of heteroskedasticity," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 36(C), pages 161-171.

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