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Evaluating Foreign Exchange Market Intervention: Self-Selection, Counterfactuals and Average Treatment Effects

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Author Info
Rasmus Fatum (School of Business, University of Alberta)
Michael M. Hutchison (Department of Economics, University of California Santa Cruz)

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Abstract

Studies of central bank intervention are complicated by the fact that we typically observe intervention only during periods of turbulent exchange markets. Furthermore, entering the market during these particular periods is a conscious “self-selection” choice made by the intervening central bank. We estimate the “counterfactual” exchange rate movements that allow us to determine what would have occurred in the absence of intervention and we introduce the method of propensity score matching to the intervention literature in order to estimate the “average treatment effect” (ATE) of intervention. Specifically, we estimate the ATE for daily Bank of Japan intervention over the January 1999 to March 2004 period. This sample encompasses a remarkable variation in intervention frequencies as well as unprecedented frequent intervention towards the latter part of the period. We find that the effects of intervention vary dramatically and inversely with the frequency of intervention: Intervention is effective over the 1999 to 2002 period, ineffective during 2003 and counterproductive during the first quarter of 2004.

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Publisher Info
Paper provided by Economic Policy Research Unit (EPRU), University of Copenhagen. Department of Economics in its series EPRU Working Paper Series with number 06-04.

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Length: 23 pages
Date of creation: May 2006
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Handle: RePEc:kud:epruwp:06-04

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Related research
Keywords: foreign exchange intervention; Bank of Japan; self-selection; matching methods;

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies
F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets

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References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Christopher J. Neely, 2005. "An analysis of recent studies of the effect of foreign exchange intervention," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Nov, pages 685-718. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  2. Christopher J. Neely, 2006. "Identifying the effects of U.S. intervention on the levels of exchange rates," Working Papers 2005-031, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. [Downloadable!]
  3. Lucio Sarno & Mark P. Taylor, 2001. "Official Intervention in the Foreign Exchange Market: Is It Effective and, If So, How Does It Work?," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 39(3), pages 839-868, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  4. Reuven Glick & Xueyan Guo & Michael Hutchison, 2004. "Currency Crises, Capital Account Liberalization, and Selection Bias," Santa Cruz Department of Economics, Working Paper Series 1008, Department of Economics, UC Santa Cruz. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  5. Baillie, Richard T. & Osterberg, William P., 1997. "Why do central banks intervene?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 16(6), pages 909-919, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. Ito, Takatoshi & Yabu, Tomoyoshi, 2007. "What prompts Japan to intervene in the Forex market? A new approach to a reaction function," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 26(2), pages 193-212, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  7. Owen F. Humpage, 2003. "Government intervention in the foreign exchange market," Working Paper 0315, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland. [Downloadable!]
  8. Bhattacharya, Utpal & Weller, Paul, 1997. "The advantage to hiding one's hand: Speculation and central bank intervention in the foreign exchange market," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 39(2), pages 251-277, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  9. Fatum, Rasmus & Hutchison, Michael, 2006. "Effectiveness of official daily foreign exchange market intervention operations in Japan," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 25(2), pages 199-219, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  10. Ho, W.-M.Wai-Ming, 2004. "The liquidity effects of foreign exchange intervention," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 63(1), pages 179-208, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  11. Kearns, Jonathan & Rigobon, Roberto, 2005. "Identifying the efficacy of central bank interventions: evidence from Australia and Japan," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 66(1), pages 31-48, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  12. Almekinders, Geert J. & Eijffinger, Sylvester C. W., 1996. "A friction model of daily Bundesbank and Federal Reserve intervention," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 20(8), pages 1365-1380, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  13. Humpage, Owen F, 1999. "U.S. Intervention: Assessing the Probability of Success," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 31(4), pages 731-47, November.
  14. Vitale, Paolo, 1999. "Sterilised central bank intervention in the foreign exchange market," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(2), pages 245-267, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  15. White, Halbert, 1980. "A Heteroskedasticity-Consistent Covariance Matrix Estimator and a Direct Test for Heteroskedasticity," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 48(4), pages 817-38, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  16. Mark P. Taylor, 2004. "Is Official Exchange Rate Intervention Effective?," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 71, pages 1-11, 02. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  17. Torsten Persson, 2001. "Currency unions and trade: how large is the treatment effect?," Economic Policy, CEPR, CES, MSH, vol. 16(33), pages 433-462, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  18. Reitz, Stefan & Taylor, Mark P., 2006. "The coordination channel of foreign exchange intervention: a nonlinear microstructural analysis," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2006,08, Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Centre. [Downloadable!]
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  19. Guido W. Imbens, 2004. "Nonparametric Estimation of Average Treatment Effects Under Exogeneity: A Review," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 86(1), pages 4-29, 06. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  20. Rasmus Fatum, 2002. "Post-Plaza intervention in the DEM/USD exchange rate," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 35(3), pages 556-567, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
Full references

Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Rasmus Fatum & Jesper Pedersen, 2007. "Real-Time Effects of Central Bank Interventions in the Euro Market," EPRU Working Paper Series 07-01, Economic Policy Research Unit (EPRU), University of Copenhagen. Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
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