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Evaluating foreign exchange market intervention: Self-selection, counterfactuals and average treatment effects

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  • Fatum, Rasmus
  • Hutchison, Michael M.

Abstract

Estimating the effect of official foreign exchange market intervention is complicated by the fact that intervention at any point entails a "self-selection" choice made by the authorities and that no counterfactual is observed. To address these issues, we estimate the "counterfactual" exchange rate movement in the absence of intervention by introducing the method of propensity-score matching to estimate the "average treatment effect" (ATE) of intervention. To derive the propensity scores we estimate central bank intervention reaction functions. We estimate the ATE for daily official intervention in Japan over the January 1999-March 2004 period. This sample encompasses a remarkable variation in intervention frequencies as well as unprecedented frequent intervention towards the latter part of the period. We find that only sporadic and relatively infrequent intervention is effective.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Journal of International Money and Finance.

Volume (Year): 29 (2010)
Issue (Month): 3 (April)
Pages: 570-584

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Handle: RePEc:eee:jimfin:v:29:y:2010:i:3:p:570-584

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Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/30443

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Keywords: Foreign exchange intervention Bank of Japan Self-selection Matching methods;

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References

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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Stephen Hall & Amangeldi Kenjegaliev & P.A.V.B. Swamy & George S. Tavlas, 2013. "Measuring Currency Pressures: The Cases of the Japanese Yen, the Chinese Yuan, and the U.K. Pound," Discussion Papers in Economics 13/10, Department of Economics, University of Leicester.
  2. Taro Esaka & Shinji Takagi, 2012. "Testing the Effectiveness of Market-Based Controls: Evidence from the Experience of Japan with Short-Term Capital Flows in the 1970s," Discussion Papers in Economics and Business 12-03, Osaka University, Graduate School of Economics and Osaka School of International Public Policy (OSIPP).
  3. Jaromir Benes & Andrew Berg & Rafael A Portillo & David Vavra, 2013. "Modeling Sterilized Interventions and Balance Sheet Effects of Monetary Policy in a New-Keynesian Framework," IMF Working Papers 13/11, International Monetary Fund.
  4. Fatum, Rasmus & Yamamoto, Yohei, 2014. "Large versus small foreign exchange interventions," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 43(C), pages 114-123.
  5. Shinji Takagi & Hiroki Okada, 2013. "Central Bank Independence and the Signaling Effect of Intervention: A Preliminary Exploration," Discussion Papers in Economics and Business 13-04, Osaka University, Graduate School of Economics and Osaka School of International Public Policy (OSIPP).

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