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Why use Markov-switching models in exchange rate prediction?

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  • Lee, Hsiu-Yun
  • Chen, Show-Lin
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    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/B6VB1-4JW15KN-2/2/4c344aea7a5ff386a46333a8a9cf188d
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    Bibliographic Info

    Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Economic Modelling.

    Volume (Year): 23 (2006)
    Issue (Month): 4 (July)
    Pages: 662-668

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    Handle: RePEc:eee:ecmode:v:23:y:2006:i:4:p:662-668

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    Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/30411

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    1. Guillermo A. Calvo & Carmen M. Reinhart, 2002. "Fear Of Floating," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 117(2), pages 379-408, May.
    2. Engel, Charles, 1994. "Can the Markov switching model forecast exchange rates?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 36(1-2), pages 151-165, February.
    3. Ya-Hwei Yang & Jia-Dong Shea, 2005. "Deflation and Monetary Policy in Taiwan," NBER Working Papers 11244, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    4. Kirikos, Dimitris G, 2002. "Discrete Policy Interventions and Rational Forecast Errors in Foreign Exchange Markets: The Uncovered Interest Parity Hypothesis Revisited," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 7(4), pages 327-38, October.
    5. Kirikos, Dimitris G., 2004. "A Reconsideration of Uncovered Interest Rate Parity under Switching Policy Regimes," Economia Internazionale / International Economics, Camera di Commercio di Genova, vol. 57(2), pages 125-144.
    6. Dimitris Kirikos, 2000. "Forecasting exchange rates out of sample: random walk vs Markov switching regimes," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 7(2), pages 133-136.
    7. Engel, Charles & Hamilton, James D, 1990. "Long Swings in the Dollar: Are They in the Data and Do Markets Know It?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 80(4), pages 689-713, September.
    8. Kim, Chang-Jin, 1994. "Dynamic linear models with Markov-switching," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 60(1-2), pages 1-22.
    9. Evans, George W, 1991. "Pitfalls in Testing for Explosive Bubbles in Asset Prices," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 81(4), pages 922-30, September.
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    Cited by:
    1. Tamgac, Unay, 2011. "Crisis and self-fulfilling expectations: The Turkish experience in 1994 and 2000-2001," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 20(1), pages 44-58, January.
    2. Lee, Hsiu-Yun, 2011. "Nonlinear exchange rate dynamics under stochastic official intervention," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 28(4), pages 1510-1518, July.
    3. Bhar, Ramaprasad & Hammoudeh, Shawkat, 2011. "Commodities and financial variables: Analyzing relationships in a changing regime environment," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 20(4), pages 469-484, October.

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