Volatility Regimes in Macroeconomic Time Series: The Case of the Visegrad Group
AbstractThe authors analyze several monthly and quarterly macroeconomic time series for the Czech Republic, Poland, Hungary, and Slovakia. These countries embarked on an economic transition in the early 1990s which ultimately led to their membership in the European Union, with Slovakia joining the euro area in 2009. It is natural to assume that changes of such a magnitude should also influence the major macroeconomic indicators. The authors explore the characteristics of these series by endogenously identifying their volatility regimes. In the course of their analysis, they show the difficulties in the handling of unit roots as a necessary step preceding volatility modeling. The final set of breaks identified shows very few changes near the beginning of the series, which corresponds to the transition period.
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Bibliographic InfoArticle provided by Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences in its journal Finance a uver - Czech Journal of Economics and Finance.
Volume (Year): 61 (2011)
Issue (Month): 6 (December)
macroeconomic fluctuations; economic transition; structural breaks; volatility regimes; cumulative sum of squares; unit root testing;
Find related papers by JEL classification:
- O11 - Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Macroeconomic Analyses of Economic Development
- C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models
- E00 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General - - - General
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