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The Time-Varying Long-Run Unemployment Rate: The Colombian Case

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  • Luis Eduardo Arango

    ()

  • Carlos Esteban Posada

    ()

Abstract

The long-run component of the Colombian unemployment rate is estimated for the last twenty years. According to the results, the main determinants of the permanent component of the unemployment rate are the real hourly wage, the non-wage labor costs and the rate of capital accumulation. Given the statistical properties of the variables, a cointegration approach was adopted.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Banco de la Republica de Colombia in its series Borradores de Economia with number 389.

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Handle: RePEc:bdr:borrec:389

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Keywords: Unemployment rate; labor costs; capital accumulation; cointegration;

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  1. Franco Modigliani & Lucas Papademos, 1975. "Targets for Monetary Policy in the Coming Year," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 6(1), pages 141-166.
  2. Laurence Ball & N. Gregory Mankiw, 2002. "The NAIRU in Theory and Practice," Harvard Institute of Economic Research Working Papers 1963, Harvard - Institute of Economic Research.
  3. Ana María Iregui & Jesús Otero, . "On the Dynamics of Unemployment in a Developing Economy: Colombia," Borradores de Economia 208, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
  4. Juan Manuel Julio, . "How Uncertain are NAIRU Estimates in Colombia," Borradores de Economia 184, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
  5. Francisco Javier LASSO VALDERRAMA, 2002. "Nueva metodología de Encuesta de hogares. ¿Más o menos desempleados?," ARCHIVOS DE ECONOMÍA 003282, DEPARTAMENTO NACIONAL DE PLANEACIÓN.
  6. Arturo Estrella & Frederic S. Mishkin, 1999. "Rethinking the Role of NAIRU in Monetary Policy: Implications of Model Formulation and Uncertainty," NBER Chapters, in: Monetary Policy Rules, pages 405-436 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  7. Edmund S. Phelps, 1968. "Money-Wage Dynamics and Labor-Market Equilibrium," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 76, pages 678.
  8. Douglas Staiger & James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 1996. "How Precise are Estimates of the Natural Rate of Unemployment?," NBER Working Papers 5477, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  9. Luis Eduardo Arango & IREGUI, Ana María & MELO, Luis F., 2006. "Recent macroeconomic performance in colombia: what went wrong?," REVISTA DE ECONOMÍA DEL ROSARIO, UNIVERSIDAD DEL ROSARIO.
  10. Luis Arango & Carlos Posada, 2002. "Unemployment rate and the real wage behaviour: a neoclassical hint for the Colombian labour market adjustment," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 9(7), pages 425-428.
  11. Jesús Antonio Bejarano Rojas, 2005. "Estimación Estructural Y Análisis De La Curva De Phillips Neokeynesiana Para Colombia," ENSAYOS SOBRE POLÍTICA ECONÓMICA, BANCO DE LA REPÚBLICA - ESPE.
  12. Luis Eduardo Arango & Carlos Esteban Posada, . "Unemployment Rate and the Real Wage Behavoir: A Neoclassical Hint for the Colombian Labor Market Adjustment," Borradores de Economia 180, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
  13. Carl E. Walsh, 1998. "The natural rate, NAIRU, and monetary policy," FRBSF Economic Letter, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue sep18.
  14. Johansen, Soren, 1991. "Estimation and Hypothesis Testing of Cointegration Vectors in Gaussian Vector Autoregressive Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 59(6), pages 1551-80, November.
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