IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/diw/diwwpp/dp312.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Structural Unemployment and the Output Gap in Germany: Evidence from an SVAR Analysis within a Hysteresis Framework

Author

Listed:
  • Ulrich Fritsche
  • Camille Logeay

Abstract

The German unemployment rate shows strong signs if non-stationarity over the course of the previous decades. This is in line with an insider-outsider model under full hysteresis. We applied a "theory-guided view" to the data using the structural VAR model as developed by Balmaseda, Dolado and López-Salido (2000) allowing for full hysteresis on the labour market. Our identification of the model implies long-lasting output gaps for Germany - especially for the disinflation period of the 1980s.

Suggested Citation

  • Ulrich Fritsche & Camille Logeay, 2002. "Structural Unemployment and the Output Gap in Germany: Evidence from an SVAR Analysis within a Hysteresis Framework," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 312, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
    • Handle: RePEc:diw:diwwpp:dp312
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.diw.de/documents/publikationen/73/diw_01.c.38524.de/dp312.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Olivier J. Blanchard & Lawrence H. Summers, 1986. "Hysteresis and the European Unemployment Problem," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1986, Volume 1, pages 15-90, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Blanchard, Olivier Jean & Quah, Danny, 1989. "The Dynamic Effects of Aggregate Demand and Supply Disturbances," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 79(4), pages 655-673, September.
    3. Balmaseda, Manuel & Dolado, Juan J & Lopez-Salido, J David, 2000. "The Dynamic Effects of Shocks to Labour Markets: Evidence from OECD Countries," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 52(1), pages 3-23, January.
    4. Layard, Richard & Nickell, Stephen & Jackman, Richard, 2005. "Unemployment: Macroeconomic Performance and the Labour Market," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780199279173.
    5. Blanchard, Olivier J. & Summers, Lawrence H., 1987. "Hysteresis in unemployment," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 31(1-2), pages 288-295.
    6. Gottschalk, Jan, 2001. "An Introduction into the SVAR Methodology: Identification, Interpretation and Limitations of SVAR models," Kiel Working Papers 1072, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    7. Barnett, William A. & Solow, Robert, 2000. "An Interview With Franco Modigliani," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 4(2), pages 222-256, June.
    8. repec:cup:macdyn:v:4:y:2000:i:2:p:222-56 is not listed on IDEAS
    9. Sims, Christopher A, 1980. "Macroeconomics and Reality," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 48(1), pages 1-48, January.
    10. Laurence Ball, 1999. "Aggregate demand and Long-Run Unemployment," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 30(2), pages 189-252.
    11. Perron, Pierre, 1989. "The Great Crash, the Oil Price Shock, and the Unit Root Hypothesis," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 57(6), pages 1361-1401, November.
    12. Elliott, Graham & Rothenberg, Thomas J & Stock, James H, 1996. "Efficient Tests for an Autoregressive Unit Root," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 64(4), pages 813-836, July.
    13. Gottschalk, Jan, 2002. "Keynesian and monetarist views on the German unemployment problem: theory and evidence," Kiel Working Papers 1096, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Ulrich Fritsche & Vladimir Kuzin, 2007. "Unit labor cost growth differentials in the Euro area, Germany, and the US: lessons from PANIC and cluster analysis," Macroeconomics and Finance Series 200703, University of Hamburg, Department of Socioeconomics.
    2. Matthias Duschl & Thomas Brenner, 2013. "Growth dynamics in regional systems of technological activities – A SVAR approach," Working Papers on Innovation and Space 2013-12, Philipps University Marburg, Department of Geography.
    3. Thomas Brenner & Matthias Duschl, 2015. "Causal dynamic effects in regional systems of technological activities: a SVAR approach," The Annals of Regional Science, Springer;Western Regional Science Association, vol. 55(1), pages 103-130, October.
    4. Houda Ben Hadj Boubaker, 2011. "Inflation Forecast-Based Rule for Inflation Targeting: Case of Some Selected MENA Countries," Working Papers 628, Economic Research Forum, revised 09 Jan 2011.
    5. Alexander Karsay, 2021. "Fates of indebted households during the Corona crisis: Survey results from Slovakia," Working and Discussion Papers WP 1/2021, Research Department, National Bank of Slovakia.
    6. Kappler, Marcus, 2007. "Projecting the Medium-Term: Outcomes and Errors for GDP Growth," ZEW Discussion Papers 07-068, ZEW - Leibniz Centre for European Economic Research.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Ribba, Antonio, 2007. "Permanent disinflationary effects on unemployment in a small open economy: Italy 1979-1995," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 24(1), pages 66-81, January.
    2. Gianni Amisano & Massimiliano Serati, 2003. "What goes up sometimes stays up: shocks and institutions as determinants of unemployment persistence," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 50(4), pages 440-470, September.
    3. Antonio Rodriguez-Gil, 2018. "Hysteresis and labour market institutions. Evidence from the UK and the Netherlands," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 55(4), pages 1985-2025, December.
    4. Miguel A. León‐Ledesma & Peter McAdam, 2004. "Unemployment, Hysteresis And Transition," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 51(3), pages 377-401, August.
    5. Alessandro Bellocchi & Giuseppe Travaglini & Beatrice Vitali, 2023. "How capital intensity affects technical progress: An empirical analysis for 17 advanced economies," Metroeconomica, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 74(3), pages 606-631, July.
    6. Elías Albagli & Pablo García & Jorge Restrepo, 2004. "Labor Market Rigidity and Structural Shocks: An Open-Economy Approach for International Comparisons," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 263, Central Bank of Chile.
    7. Dionisio Ramirez & Gabriel Rodr¨ªguez, 2014. "Do Labor Reforms in Spain Have an Effect on the Equilibrium Unemployment Rate?," International Journal of Social Science Studies, Redfame publishing, vol. 2(1), pages 105-120, January.
    8. Cuestas, Juan C. & Gil-Alana, Luis A. & Staehr, Karsten, 2011. "A further investigation of unemployment persistence in European transition economies," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 39(4), pages 514-532.
    9. García-Cintado, Alejandro & Romero-Ávila, Diego & Usabiaga, Carlos, 2015. "Can the hysteresis hypothesis in Spanish regional unemployment be beaten? New evidence from unit root tests with breaks," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 47(C), pages 244-252.
    10. Engelbert Stockhammer & Simon Sturn, 2012. "The impact of monetary policy on unemployment hysteresis," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 44(21), pages 2743-2756, July.
    11. Bashar, Omar H.M.N., 2011. "On the permanent effect of an aggregate demand shock: Evidence from the G-7 countries," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 28(3), pages 1374-1382, May.
    12. Kurmaş Akdoğan, 2017. "Unemployment hysteresis and structural change in Europe," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 53(4), pages 1415-1440, December.
    13. Echavarría-Soto, Juan José & López, Enrique & Ocampo, Sergio & Rodríguez-Niño, Norberto, 2012. "Choques, instituciones laborales y desempleo en Colombia," Chapters, in: Arango-Thomas, Luis Eduardo & Hamann-Salcedo, Franz Alonso (ed.), El mercado de trabajo en Colombia : hechos, tendencias e instituciones, chapter 18, pages 753-794, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
    14. Emilio Congregado & Antonio Golpe & Simon Parker, 2012. "The dynamics of entrepreneurship: hysteresis, business cycles and government policy," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 43(3), pages 1239-1261, December.
    15. Dolado, Juan J. & Jimeno, Juan F., 1997. "The causes of Spanish unemployment: A structural VAR approach," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 41(7), pages 1281-1307, July.
    16. Laurence Ball & N. Gregory Mankiw, 2002. "The NAIRU in Theory and Practice," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 16(4), pages 115-136, Fall.
    17. Lucas Papademos, 2005. "Macroeconomic theory and monetary policy: the contributions of Franco Modigliani and the ongoing debate," BNL Quarterly Review, Banca Nazionale del Lavoro, vol. 58(233-234), pages 187-214.
    18. Matteo Lanzafame, 2010. "The nature of regional unemployment in Italy," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 39(3), pages 877-895, December.
    19. Marika Karanassou & Hector Sala & Dennis J. Snower, 2010. "Phillips Curves And Unemployment Dynamics: A Critique And A Holistic Perspective," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 24(1), pages 1-51, February.
    20. Mariam Camarero & Josep Lluís Carrion‐i‐Silvestre & Cecilio Tamarit, 2006. "Testing for Hysteresis in Unemployment in OECD Countries: New Evidence using Stationarity Panel Tests with Breaks," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 68(2), pages 167-182, April.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Structural unemployment; output gap; structural VAR; insider-outsider model;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E12 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models - - - Keynes; Keynesian; Post-Keynesian; Modern Monetary Theory
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • J64 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Immigrant Workers - - - Unemployment: Models, Duration, Incidence, and Job Search
    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:diw:diwwpp:dp312. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Bibliothek (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/diwbede.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.