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Desequilibrios Reales En Colombia

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  • Martha Misas A
  • Enrique López E

Abstract

La evaluación de los desequilibrios en los mercados de bienes y trabajo permite un diagnóstico preciso de la fase en que se encuentra una economía en el ciclo económico. Es éste artículo se utiliza la metodología de vectores autorregresivos estructurales (SVAR) aplicada a un único sistema de información conformado por las variables de producto real, precios al consumidor, tasa de desempleo y utilización de la capacidad instalada para construir la brecha del producto y de desempleo. Para el cálculo de éstos dos indicadores fue necesario resolver un complejo problema de indentificación, de forma tal que se pudieran definir los shock estructurales que han afectado en el pasado la economía colombiana. La teoría económica, específicamente un modelo IS-LM microfundamentado, permite estipular 10 restricciones de largo plazo y solucionar el problema.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by BANCO DE LA REPÚBLICA - ESPE in its journal ENSAYOS SOBRE POLÍTICA ECONÓMICA.

Volume (Year): (2001)
Issue (Month): ()
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Handle: RePEc:col:000107:002292

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  1. Olivier Jean Blanchard & Danny Quah, 1988. "The Dynamic Effects of Aggregate Demand and Supply Disturbance," Working papers 497, Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Department of Economics.
  2. Willie Belton & Richard Cebula, 2000. "Capacity utilization rates and unemployment rates: are they complements or substitutes in warning about future inflation?," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 32(12), pages 1521-1532.
  3. Ben S. Bernanke, 1986. "Alternative Explanations of the Money-Income Correlation," NBER Working Papers 1842, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  4. Jurgen A. Doornik & Henrik Hansen, 2008. "An Omnibus Test for Univariate and Multivariate Normality," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 70(s1), pages 927-939, December.
  5. Osborn, Denise R, et al, 1988. "Seasonality and the Order of Integration for Consumption," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 50(4), pages 361-77, November.
  6. Alain DeSerres & Alain Guay, 1995. "Selection of the Truncation Lag in Structural VARs (or VECMs) with Long-Run Restrictions," Econometrics 9510001, EconWPA.
  7. Luis Fernando Melo & Alvaro Riascos, . "El Producto Potencial utilizando el Filtro de Hodrick- Prescott con Parámetro de Suavización Variable y Ajustado por Inflación: Una Aplicación para Colombia," Borradores de Economia 083, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
  8. Juan Manuel Julio & Javier Gómez, . "Output Gap Estimation, Estimation Uncertainty and its Effect on Policy Rules," Borradores de Economia 125, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
  9. Enrique López E. & Martha Misas A., 1999. "Un Examen Empirico De La Curva De Phillips En Colombia," BORRADORES DE ECONOMIA 003676, BANCO DE LA REPÚBLICA.
  10. Luis Fernando Melo & Franz A.Hamann, . "Inflación Básica.Una Estimación Basada en Modelos VAR Estructurales," Borradores de Economia 093, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
  11. Adams, Charles & Coe, David T., 1989. "A Systems Approach to Estimating the Natural Rate of Unemployment and Potential Output for the United States," MPRA Paper 8622, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  12. St-Amant, P. & van Norden, S., 1997. "Measurement of the Output Gap: A Discussion of Recent Research at the Bank of Canada," Technical Reports 79, Bank of Canada.
  13. Cooley, Thomas F. & Leroy, Stephen F., 1985. "Atheoretical macroeconometrics: A critique," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 16(3), pages 283-308, November.
  14. Martha Misas & Enrique López, . "El Producto Potencial en Colombia: Una Estimación Bajo VAR Estructural," Borradores de Economia 094, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
  15. Dickey, David A & Fuller, Wayne A, 1981. "Likelihood Ratio Statistics for Autoregressive Time Series with a Unit Root," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 49(4), pages 1057-72, June.
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  17. Luis Eduardo Arango T. & Carlos Esteban Posada, 2001. "El Desempleo En Colombia," BORRADORES DE ECONOMIA 002495, BANCO DE LA REPÚBLICA.
  18. Charles A. Fleischman, 1999. "The causes of business cycles and the cyclicality of real wages," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 1999-53, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  19. Martha Misas Arango & Enrique López, 2000. "La Utilización De La Capacidad Instalada De La Industria En Colombia: Un Nuevo Enfoque," BORRADORES DE ECONOMIA 003096, BANCO DE LA REPÚBLICA.
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Cited by:
  1. Luis Eduardo Arango & IREGUI, Ana María & MELO, Luis F., 2006. "Recent macroeconomic performance in colombia: what went wrong?," REVISTA DE ECONOMÍA DEL ROSARIO, UNIVERSIDAD DEL ROSARIO.
  2. Luis Eduardo Arango & Ana María Iregui & Luis Fernando Melo, 2003. "Recent Behavior of Outpout , Unemployment, Wages and Prices in Colombia: What went wrong?," BORRADORES DE ECONOMIA 003417, BANCO DE LA REPÚBLICA.
  3. Carlos Esteban Posada, 2002. "Modelos de crecimiento y estilos de desarrollo: varias precisiones y una conjetura," REVISTA APUNTES DEL CENES, UNIVERSIDAD PEDAGOGICA Y TECNOLOGICA DE COLOMBIA.

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