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Recent Behavior of Output, Unemployment, Wages and Prices in Colombia:What went Wrong?

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  • Luis Eduardo Arango

    ()

  • Ana María Iregui

    ()

  • Luis Fernando Melo

    ()

Abstract

At the end of the last decade, the real activity in Colombia underwent the sharpest recession of the last fifty years. We postulate a non-triangular structural VAR model(Amisano and Giannini, 1997) to describe the dynamics of output, prices, unemployment and wages during the last two decades. The evidence suggests that, in the long-run, monetary policy has been neutral to both output and unemployment while the main reasons for the increase in the latter have been the lack of credibility of monetary policy, the way in which wages are set and the increase in non-wage labor costs.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Banco de la Republica de Colombia in its series Borradores de Economia with number 249.

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Handle: RePEc:bdr:borrec:249

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Keywords: Structural VAR; unemployment; monetary policy; wages; expectations;

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References

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  1. Juan J. Dolado & Juan F. Jimeno, . "The causes of Spanish unemployment: A structural VAR apporach," Working Papers 96-19, FEDEA.
  2. Ana María Iregui & Jesús Otero, 2002. "On The Dynamics Of Unemployment In A Developing Economy: Colombia," BORRADORES DE ECONOMIA 003298, BANCO DE LA REPÚBLICA.
  3. Martha Misas & Enrique López Enciso, . "Desequilibrios Reales en Colombia," Borradores de Economia 181, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
  4. Luis Eduardo Arango, . "Temporary and Permanent Components of Colombia's Output," Borradores de Economia 096, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
  5. Yann Algan, 2000. "How well does the Aggregate Demand - Aggregate Supply framework explain unemployment fluctuations? A France - United States Comparison," Sciences Po publications info:hdl:2441/8886, Sciences Po.
  6. Olivier Jean Blanchard & Danny Quah, 1988. "The Dynamic Effects of Aggregate Demand and Supply Disturbance," Working papers 497, Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Department of Economics.
  7. Martha Misas & Enrique López, . "El Producto Potencial en Colombia: Una Estimación Bajo VAR Estructural," Borradores de Economia 094, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
  8. Olivier J. Blanchard, 1986. "Hysteresis and Unemployment," Working papers 430, Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Department of Economics.
  9. Balmaseda, Manuel & Dolado, Juan J & Lopez-Salido, J David, 2000. "The Dynamic Effects of Shocks to Labour Markets: Evidence from OECD Countries," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 52(1), pages 3-23, January.
  10. Martha Misas A. & Carlos Esteban Posada, 2000. "Crecimiento y Ciclos Económicos en Colombia en el siglo XX: El Aporte de un VAR Estructural," BORRADORES DE ECONOMIA 002229, BANCO DE LA REPÚBLICA.
  11. Fabiani, Silvia & Locarno, Alberto & Oneto, Giampaolo & Sestito, Paolo, 2000. "The sources of unemployment fluctuations: an empirical application to the Italian case," Working Paper Series 0029, European Central Bank.
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Cited by:
  1. Martha Misas A>rango & Enrique López Enciso & Juana Téllez Corredor & José Fernando Escobar Restrepo, 2005. "La Inflación Subyacente En Colombia: Un Enfoque De Tendencias Estocásticas Comunes Asociadas A Un Vec Estructural," BORRADORES DE ECONOMIA 003026, BANCO DE LA REPÚBLICA.
  2. Juan Carlos Parra Alvarez, . "Hechos estilizados de la economía colombiana: fundamentos empíricos para la construcción y evaluación de un modelo DSGE," Borradores de Economia 509, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.

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