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The causes of business cycles and the cyclicality of real wages

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Charles A. Fleischman

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Abstract

A model's ability to explain procyclical movements in real wages has become an important benchmark by which macroeconomists judge business cycle theories. Because Keynesian models with sticky nominal wages predict countercyclical real wages, they have been criticized and dismissed in favor of Real Business Cycle models or New Keynesian models based on price stickiness or countercyclical markups. The bulk of the evidence for procyclical real wages, however, comes from studies using panel data that estimate the unconditional, contemporaneous correlation between real wages and the unemployment rate. These studies constrain real wage cyclicality to be the same irrespective of the source of the business cycle fluctuations. This paper relaxes this constraint and estimates a structural VAR identified by long-run restrictions on the responses of hours and output to labor supply, technology, oil price, and aggregate demand shocks. It finds that real wages are procyclical in response to technology shocks and oil price shocks, but are countercyclical in response to labor supply shocks and aggregate demand shocks. The procyclicality of real wages during the periods covered by the panel data sets may be explained by the importance of the productivity slowdown and the 1970s oil price shocks. The results highlight the limitations of using the unconditional, contemporaneous correlation between real wages and business cycle indicators to sort out competing theories of the business cycle, and cast strong doubt on the appropriateness of the rejection of sticky wage models.

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Paper provided by Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.) in its series Finance and Economics Discussion Series with number 1999-53.

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Date of creation: 1999
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Handle: RePEc:fip:fedgfe:1999-53

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Keywords: Business cycles ; Wages;

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Full references

Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Jean-Pierre DANTHINE & André KURMANN, 2004. "Efficiency Wages Revisited: The Internal Reference Perspective (new version)," Cahiers de Recherches Economiques du Département d'Econométrie et d'Economie politique (DEEP) 04.09, Université de Lausanne, Faculté des HEC, DEEP, revised Jun 2005. [Downloadable!]
  2. Julián Messina & Chiara Strozzi & Jarkko Turunen, 2008. "Real Wages over the Business Cycle: OECD Evidence from the Time and Frequency Domains," Center for Economic Research (RECent) 028, University of Modena and Reggio E., Dept. of Economics. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  3. Vivek Ghosal & Prakash Loungani, 1995. "Evidence on nominal wage rigidity from a panel of U.S. manufacturing industries," International Finance Discussion Papers 512, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  4. Neville Francis & Valerie A. Ramey, 2002. "Is the Technology-Driven Real Business Cycle Hypothesis Dead?," NBER Working Papers 8726, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. Dominique Tremblay, 2002. "Salaire réel, chocs technologiques et fluctuations économiques," Working Papers 02-42, Bank of Canada. [Downloadable!]
  6. Kevin X.D. Huang & Zheng Liu & Louis Phaneuf, 2002. "Why does the cyclical behavior of real wages change over time?," Research Working Paper RWP 02-09, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  7. G. Peersman & R. Straub, 2006. "Putting the New Keynesian Model to a Test," Working Papers of Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, Ghent University, Belgium 06/375, Ghent University, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration. [Downloadable!]
  8. Ulrich Woitek, 2004. "Real Wages and Business Cycle Asymmetries," CESifo Working Paper Series CESifo Working Paper No. , CESifo Group Munich. [Downloadable!]
  9. G. Peersman & R. Straub, 2005. "Technology Shocks and Robust Sign Restrictions in a Euro Area SVAR," Working Papers of Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, Ghent University, Belgium 05/288, Ghent University, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration. [Downloadable!]
  10. Roland Straub & Gert Peersman, 2006. "Putting the New Keynesian Model to a Test," IMF Working Papers 06/135, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
  11. Jean-Pierre Danthine & André Kurmann, 2005. "The Macroeconomic Consequences of Reciprocity in Labor Relations," Cahiers de Recherches Economiques du Département d'Econométrie et d'Economie politique (DEEP) 05.08, Université de Lausanne, Faculté des HEC, DEEP. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  12. Jean-Pierre DANTHINE & André KURMANN, 2007. "The Business Cycle Implications of Reciprocity in Labor Relations," Cahiers de Recherches Economiques du Département d'Econométrie et d'Economie politique (DEEP) 07.12, Université de Lausanne, Faculté des HEC, DEEP. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  13. Martha Misas & Enrique López Enciso, . "Desequilibrios Reales en Colombia," Borradores de Economia 181, Banco de la Republica de Colombia. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  14. Gert Peersman & Roland Straub, 2004. "Technology shocks and robust sign restrictions in a euro area SVAR," Working Paper Series 373, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
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