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Salaire réel, chocs technologiques et fluctuations économiques

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  • Dominique Tremblay
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    Abstract

    The author presents empirical evidence that he has obtained from an analysis of the response of different economic variables, including the real wage rate, to a technology shock. He replicates Gal�’s (1999) bivariate model and compares dynamic impulse responses and conditional correlations with evidence provided by the vectorerror-correction model that was identified using the King, Plosser, Stock, and Watson (1991) procedure. To calculate confidence intervals, the author uses Kilian’s (1998) bootstrap-after-bootstrap method. The empirical evidence suggests that it is not possible to reject a procyclical real wage in response to a technology shock. Therefore, real-business-cycle models cannot be rejected based on their conditional predictions of the labour - market dynamics in favour of other types of models.

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    Bibliographic Info

    Paper provided by Bank of Canada in its series Working Papers with number 02-42.

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    Length: 70 pages
    Date of creation: 2002
    Date of revision:
    Handle: RePEc:bca:bocawp:02-42

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    Keywords: Economic Models; Business Fluctuations and Cycles;

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    1. Susanto Basu & John Fernald & Miles Kimball, 2004. "Are Technology Improvements Contractionary?," NBER Working Papers 10592, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Alain Paquet, 1994. "A Guide to Applied Modern Macroeconometrics," Documents techniques CREFE / CREFE Technical Papers 1, CREFE, Université du Québec à Montréal.
    3. King, Robert G. & Plosser, Charles I. & Stock, James H. & Watson, Mark W., 1991. "Stochastic Trends and Economic Fluctuations," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 81(4), pages 819-40, September.
    4. Kydland, Finn E & Prescott, Edward C, 1982. "Time to Build and Aggregate Fluctuations," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(6), pages 1345-70, November.
    5. Kwiatkowski, Denis & Phillips, Peter C. B. & Schmidt, Peter & Shin, Yongcheol, 1992. "Testing the null hypothesis of stationarity against the alternative of a unit root : How sure are we that economic time series have a unit root?," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 54(1-3), pages 159-178.
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    11. Charles A. Fleischman, 1999. "The causes of business cycles and the cyclicality of real wages," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 1999-53, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    12. Lutz Kilian, 1998. "Small-Sample Confidence Intervals For Impulse Response Functions," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 80(2), pages 218-230, May.
    13. Katharine G. Abraham & John C. Haltiwanger, 1995. "Real Wages and the Business Cycle," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 33(3), pages 1215-1264, September.
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    21. Neville Francis & Valerie A. Ramey, 2002. "Is the Technology-Driven Real Business Cycle Hypothesis Dead?," NBER Working Papers 8726, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    22. Engle, Robert F & Granger, Clive W J, 1987. "Co-integration and Error Correction: Representation, Estimation, and Testing," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 55(2), pages 251-76, March.
    23. Bils, Mark J, 1985. "Real Wages over the Business Cycle: Evidence from Panel Data," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 93(4), pages 666-89, August.
    24. Lucas, Robert E, Jr, 1973. "Some International Evidence on Output-Inflation Tradeoffs," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 63(3), pages 326-34, June.
    25. Fairise, Xavier & Langot, Francois, 1994. "Labor productivity and the business cycle: Can R.B.C. models be saved?," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 38(8), pages 1581-1594, October.
    26. Geary, Patrick T & Kennan, John, 1982. "The Employment-Real Wage Relationship: An International Study," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 90(4), pages 854-71, August.
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    28. Neftci, Salih N, 1978. "A Time-Series Analysis of the Real Wages-Employment Relationship," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 86(2), pages 281-91, April.
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