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Real wages and monetary policy: A DSGE approach

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  • Perry, Bryan
  • Phillips, Kerk L.
  • Spencer, David E.

Abstract

Economists have long investigated the cyclical behavior of real wages in order to draw inferences regarding the relative stickiness of prices and wages. Recent studies have adopted techniques intended to identify monetary shocks and examined the response of real wages and output or employment to such shocks. A finding that real wages are procyclical in response to a positive monetary policy shock, for example, is taken as evidence that prices are stickier than wages. In this paper, we show that factors other than wage and price stickiness affect the response of real wages to a monetary policy shock. Accordingly, examining the response of real wages is not enough to sort out the relative stickiness of prices and wages. We use two prominent DSGE models to help us address this issue. These models incorporate both sticky wages and prices but in different ways. The first model (Huang, Liu, and Phaneuf, American Economic Review, 2004) is relatively simple and is not intended for policy analysis. Its relative simplicity allows us to approach the issues both analytically and through simulations. The second model (Smets and Wouters, American Economic Review, 2007) is a relatively complex model of the U.S. economy with many frictions and intended to be useful for policy analysis. Because of its complexity, we must rely principally on simulation exercises. Using these models we offer robust evidence that the real wage response to monetary policy is affected in important ways by properties of the economy other than stickiness of wages and prices, such as the importance of intermediate goods in the production process and the size of key elasticities. Consequently, we cannot appropriately infer the relative stickiness of wages and prices from examining only the response of real wages to a monetary policy shock.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by University Library of Munich, Germany in its series MPRA Paper with number 36995.

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Date of creation: 29 Feb 2012
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Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:36995

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Keywords: real wages; monetary policy; DSGE models;

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  1. Charles A. Fleischman, 1999. "The causes of business cycles and the cyclicality of real wages," Finance and Economics Discussion Series, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.) 1999-53, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  2. Frank Smets & Rafael Wouters, 2007. "Shocks and Frictions in US Business Cycles: A Bayesian DSGE Approach," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 97(3), pages 586-606, June.
  3. Huw Dixon & Engin Kara, . "How to Compare Taylor and Calvo Contracts: A Comment on Michael Kiley," Discussion Papers 05/04, Department of Economics, University of York.
  4. Kevin X.D. Huang & Zheng Liu & Louis Phaneuf, 2002. "Why does the cyclical behavior of real wages change over time?," Research Working Paper, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City RWP 02-09, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City.
  5. Taylor, John B., 1999. "Staggered price and wage setting in macroeconomics," Handbook of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, in: J. B. Taylor & M. Woodford (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 15, pages 1009-1050 Elsevier.
  6. repec:nbr:nberre:0126 is not listed on IDEAS
  7. Fischer, Stanley, 1977. "Long-Term Contracts, Rational Expectations, and the Optimal Money Supply Rule," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, University of Chicago Press, vol. 85(1), pages 191-205, February.
  8. Miles S. Kimball & Michael Woodford, 1994. "The quantitative analysis of the basic neomonetarist model," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, pages 1241-1289.
  9. Calvo, Guillermo A., 1983. "Staggered prices in a utility-maximizing framework," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 12(3), pages 383-398, September.
  10. Gamber, Edward N & Joutz, Frederick L, 1993. "The Dynamic Effects of Aggregate Demand and Supply Disturbances: Comment," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 83(5), pages 1387-93, December.
  11. Fischer, Stanley, 1988. "Recent Developments in Macroeconomics," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, Royal Economic Society, vol. 98(391), pages 294-339, June.
  12. Taylor, John B, 1980. "Aggregate Dynamics and Staggered Contracts," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, University of Chicago Press, vol. 88(1), pages 1-23, February.
  13. Spencer, David E, 1998. "The Relative Stickiness of Wages and Prices," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, Western Economic Association International, vol. 36(1), pages 120-37, January.
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