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Evidence on nominal wage rigidity from a panel of U.S. manufacturing industries

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Author Info
Vivek Ghosal
Prakash Loungani

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Abstract

Using annual data for 450 manufacturing industries over the period 1958 to 1989, we establish the following stylized facts on the response of industry nominal wage growth to aggregate and industry influences: ; 1. We find support for the canonical wage contracts model outlined in Blanchard and Fischer (1989). The elasticity of response of nominal wage growth to expected inflation is 0.7. The dasticity of nominal wage growth with respect to changes in unexpected inflation is 0.1. ; 2. These elasticity estimates are robust to splitting the sample along various dimensions: level of unionization, durability of the product, and industry contract length. The elasticity of nominal wage growth to expected inflation ranges from 0.6 to 0.8; the elasticity with respect to unexpected inflation is between 0.1 and 0.2. ; 3. We find support for the multi-sector wage indexation models of Duca and VanHoose (199] ) and others. The profit-sharing elasticity (the response of industry wage growth to industry profit growth) is positive, as hypothesized in these models. The instrumental variable estimates of the profit-sharing elasticity range from 0.1 to 0.3.

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Paper provided by Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.) in its series International Finance Discussion Papers with number 512.

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Date of creation: 1995
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Handle: RePEc:fip:fedgif:512

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Keywords: Manufactures ; Wages;

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References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Ian Domowitz & R. Glenn Hubbard & Bruce C. Petersen, 1988. "Market Structure and Cyclical Fluctuations in U.S. Manufacturing," NBER Working Papers 2115, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  2. David G. Blanchflower & Andrew J. Oswald & Peter Sanfey, 1992. "Wages, Profits and Rent-Sharing," NBER Working Papers 4222, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  3. Oswald, Andrew J., 1993. "Efficient contracts are on the labour demand curve : Theory and facts," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 1(1), pages 85-113, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  4. Kim, In-Moo & Loungani, Prakash, 1992. "The role of energy in real business cycle models," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 29(2), pages 173-189, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  5. Charles A. Fleischman, 1999. "The causes of business cycles and the cyclicality of real wages," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 1999-53, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
  6. Ahmed, Shaghil, 1987. "Wage stickiness and the non-neutrality of money : A cross-industry analysis," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 20(1), pages 25-50, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  7. Cooley, T.F. & Cho, J.O., 1991. "The Business Cycle with Nominal Contracts," Papers 90-07, Rochester, Business - General.
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  8. Dutkowsky, Donald H & Atesoglu, H Sonmez, 1993. "Wage Contracting in the Macroeconomy," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 25(1), pages 62-78, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  9. Gordon, Robert J, 1988. "The Role of Wages in the Inflation Process," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 78(2), pages 276-83, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  10. Gray, Jo Anna, 1976. "Wage indexation: A macroeconomic approach," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 2(2), pages 221-235, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  11. Montgomery, Edward & Shaw, Kathryn, 1985. "Long-term contracts, expectations and wage inertia," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 16(2), pages 209-226, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  12. Waldo, Douglas G., 1981. "Sticky nominal wages and the optimal employment rule," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 7(3), pages 339-353. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  13. Sargent, Thomas J, 1976. "A Classical Macroeconometric Model for the United States," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 84(2), pages 207-37, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  14. Christiano, Lawrence J & Eichenbaum, Martin, 1992. "Current Real-Business-Cycle Theories and Aggregate Labor-Market Fluctuations," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 82(3), pages 430-50, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  15. Marcello Estevao & Stacey Tevlin, 1995. "The role of profits in wage determination: evidence from US manufacturing," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 95-48, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  16. Prescott, David & Wilton, David, 1992. "The Determinants of Wage Changes in Indexed.and Nonindexed Contracts: A Switching Model," Journal of Labor Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 10(3), pages 331-55, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  17. Gottfries, Nils, 1992. "Insiders, Outsiders, and Nominal Wage Contracts," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 100(2), pages 252-70, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  18. Barro, Robert J., 1977. "Long-term contracting, sticky prices, and monetary policy," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 3(3), pages 305-316, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  19. Rotemberg, Julio J & Woodford, Michael, 1992. "Oligopolistic Pricing and the Effects of Aggregate Demand on Economic Activity," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 100(6), pages 1153-1207, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  20. Fischer, Stanley, 1977. "Long-Term Contracts, Rational Expectations, and the Optimal Money Supply Rule," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 85(1), pages 191-205, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  21. Duca, John V & VanHoose, David D, 1991. "Optimal Wage Indexation in a Multisector Economy," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 32(4), pages 859-67, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  22. Fair, Ray C, 1979. "An Analysis of the Accuracy of Four Macroeconometric Models," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 87(4), pages 701-18, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  23. Michael A. Curme & Barry T. Hirsch & David A. Macpherson, 1990. "Union membership and contract coverage in the United States, 1983รป1988," Industrial and Labor Relations Review, ILR Review, ILR School, Cornell University, vol. 44(1), pages 5-33, October.
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  1. John V. Duca & David D. VanHoose, 1998. "The rise of goods-market competition and the fall of nominal wage contracting: endogenous wage contracting in a multisector economy," Working Papers 98-05, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas. [Downloadable!]
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  2. John V. Duca & David D. VanHoose, 1997. "Goods-market competition and profit sharing: a multisector macro approach," Working Papers 97-09, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas. [Downloadable!]
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  3. Christopher Hanes, 2000. "Nominal Wage Rigidity and Industry Characteristics in the Downturns of 1893, 1929, and 1981," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 90(5), pages 1432-1446, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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