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Does Anticipated Aggregate Demand Policy Matter? Further Econometric Results

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  • Mishkin, Frederic S

Abstract

A heated debate has arisen over what Modigliani has dubbed the Macro Rational Expections (MRE) hypothesis. This hypothesis embodies two component hypotheses: 1) rational expectations and 2) short-run neutrality -- i.e., that anticipated changes in aggregate demand will have already been taken into account in economic agents' behavior and will thus evoke no output or employment response. Together these component hypotheses imply that deterministic feedback policy rules will have no effect on business cycle fluctuations. The irrelevance of these types of policy rules is inconsistent with much previous macro theorizing as well as with the views of policymakers. It is thus an extremely controversial proposition which requires a wide range of empirical research. This paper is a sequel to a previous paper by the author. That paper developed a methodology for testing the MRE hypothesis and found that anticipated money growth does matter to the business cycle. This paper extends the analyses to cases where the rate of nominal GNP growth or the inflation rate, rather than money growth, is the aggregate demand variable. The empirical results are also negative on the MRE hypothesis and its corresponding policy ineffectiveness proposition.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by American Economic Association in its journal American Economic Review.

Volume (Year): 72 (1982)
Issue (Month): 4 (September)
Pages: 788-802

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Handle: RePEc:aea:aecrev:v:72:y:1982:i:4:p:788-802

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  1. Frederic S. Mishkin, 1980. "Does Anticipated Monetary Policy Matter? An Econometric Investigation," NBER Working Papers 0506, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  2. Lucas, Robert E, Jr, 1973. "Some International Evidence on Output-Inflation Tradeoffs," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 63(3), pages 326-34, June.
  3. Robert J. Gordon, 1979. "New Evidence that Fully Anticipated Monetary Changes Influence Real Output After All," Discussion Papers 369, Northwestern University, Center for Mathematical Studies in Economics and Management Science.
  4. Grossman, Jacob, 1979. "Nominal Demand Policy and Short-Run Fluctuations in Unemployment and Prices in the United States," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 87(5), pages 1063-85, October.
  5. Barro, Robert J, 1977. "Unanticipated Money Growth and Unemployment in the United States," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 67(2), pages 101-15, March.
  6. Leiderman, Leonardo, 1980. "Macroeconometric testing of the rational expectations and structural neutrality hypotheses for the United States," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 6(1), pages 69-82, January.
  7. Andrew B. Abel & Frederic S. Mishkin, 1981. "An Integrated View of Tests of Rationality, Market Efficiency, and the Short-Run Neutrality of Monetary Policy," NBER Working Papers 0726, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  8. Sargent, Thomas J, 1976. "A Classical Macroeconometric Model for the United States," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 84(2), pages 207-37, April.
  9. Franco Modigliani, 1977. "The monetarist controversy; or, should we forsake stabilization policies?," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue Spr suppl, pages 27-46.
  10. Small, David H, 1979. "Unanticipated Money Growth and Unemployment in the United States: Comment," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 69(5), pages 996-1003, December.
  11. Fair, Ray C, 1979. "An Analysis of the Accuracy of Four Macroeconometric Models," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 87(4), pages 701-18, August.
  12. Granger, C W J, 1969. "Investigating Causal Relations by Econometric Models and Cross-Spectral Methods," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 37(3), pages 424-38, July.
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Cited by:
  1. Vivek Ghosal & Prakash Loungani, 1995. "Evidence on nominal wage rigidity from a panel of U.S. manufacturing industries," International Finance Discussion Papers 512, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  2. Sharon J. Erenburg, . "Linking Public Capital to Economic Performance, Public Capital: The Missing Link Between Investment and Economic Growth ," Economics Public Policy Brief Archive 14, Levy Economics Institute.
  3. Magda E. Kandil, 2014. "Does Demand Volatility Lower Growth and Raise Inflation? Evidence from the Caribbean," IMF Working Papers 14/67, International Monetary Fund.
  4. Frederic S. Mishkin, 2007. "Will monetary policy become more of a science?," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2007-44, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  5. Frederic S. Mishkin, 2011. "Monetary Policy Strategy: Lessons from the Crisis," NBER Working Papers 16755, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  6. Thomas Mayer, 2012. "Ziliak and McCloskey's Criticisms of Significance Tests: An Assessment," Econ Journal Watch, Econ Journal Watch, vol. 9(3), pages 256-297, September.
  7. Huayu Sun & Yue Ma, 2004. "Money and price relationship in China," Journal of Chinese Economic and Business Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 2(3), pages 225-247.
  8. Kim, Jinbang & De Marchi, Neil & Morgan, Mary S., 1995. "Empirical model particularities and belief in the natural rate hypothesis," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 67(1), pages 81-102, May.
  9. Rahmi Yamak & Yakup Kucukkale, 2002. "Anticipated versus Unanticipated Money in Turkey," Macroeconomics 0211011, EconWPA.
  10. Ermini, Luigi & Chang, Dongkoo, 1996. "Testing the joint hypothesis of rationality and neutrality under seasonal cointegration: The case of Korea," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 74(2), pages 363-386, October.
  11. Antonio Aznar & Mª Teresa Aparicio & Francisco Javier Trivez, 1991. "Modelo LSW versus modelo NRH-GAP, aplicación de una nueva metodología de selección de modelos," Investigaciones Economicas, Fundación SEPI, vol. 15(3), pages 575-599, September.

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