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Outpout Gap Estimation, Estimation Uncertainty And Its Effect On Policy Rules

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  • Juan Manuel Julio

    ()

  • Javier Gómez

    ()

Abstract

The authors propose a short run model for the monetary transmission mechanism in which the output gap is modelled as an unobserved variable. By estimating this model using maximum likelihood on a Kalman Filter, the authors find an estimate of the unobserved output gap as well as its estimation uncertainty. The performance of monetary rules is studied both with certainty on the output gap values as well as with estimation uncertainty. Although the estimated gap is more reasonable than some other estimates proposed for Colombia, it is estimated with a considerable amount of uncertainty. In fact, the gap is not significantly different from zero in all but five quarter. This result amounts to say that we can not be sure about the sign or value of the gap except when the economy faces an unusual rate of growth. Moreover, we found that potential output does not differ statistically from a linear trend, thus, the gap may be understood as deviations from a linear trend, being the money surprises the source of this deviations. This result may be due to the sample length. In addition, we estimated the optimal linear policy rule with and without uncertainty and used it as a benchmark to evaluate the Taylor rule and the historical data, By introducing output gap estimation uncertainty the variance of the target variables increases, and so the reaction of the authority is smaller, Finally, Colombian historical results resemble those of an economy under a Taylor rule with uncertainty.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by BANCO DE LA REPÚBLICA in its series BORRADORES DE ECONOMIA with number 003309.

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Length: 26
Date of creation: 30 Jul 1999
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:col:000094:003309

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  1. Glenn Rudebusch & Lars E.O. Svensson, 1999. "Policy Rules for Inflation Targeting," NBER Chapters, in: Monetary Policy Rules, pages 203-262 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  2. Lucas, Robert E, Jr, 1973. "Some International Evidence on Output-Inflation Tradeoffs," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 63(3), pages 326-34, June.
  3. Frank Smets, 1998. "Output gap uncertainty: does it matter for the Taylor rule?," BIS Working Papers 60, Bank for International Settlements.
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Cited by:
  1. Juan Manuel Julio, . "How Uncertain are NAIRU Estimates in Colombia," Borradores de Economia 184, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
  2. Andrés González & Sergio Ocampo & Julian Pérez Amaya & Diego Rodríguez, 2012. "Output gap and Neutral interest measures for Colombia," Borradores de Economia 726, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
  3. Juan Manuel Julio Román, 2006. "The Monetary Policy Rule During The Transition Toa Stable Lvel Of Inflation: The Case Of Colombia," BORRADORES DE ECONOMIA 003613, BANCO DE LA REPÚBLICA.
  4. Martha Misas Arango & Enrique López Enciso, 0000. "Desequilibrios Reales En Colombia," BORRADORES DE ECONOMIA 002291, BANCO DE LA REPÚBLICA.
  5. Gloria Lucía Bernal Nisperuza & Johanna Táutiva Pradere, 2008. "Relevancia de los datos en tiempo real en la estimación de la regla de Taylor para Colombia," DOCUMENTOS DE ECONOMÍA 005421, UNIVERSIDAD JAVERIANA - BOGOTÁ.
  6. Martha Misas A. & Carlos Esteban Posada & Diego Mauricio Vásquez, 2001. "¿Está Determinado el Nivel de Precios por las Expectativas de Dinero y Producto en Colombia?," BORRADORES DE ECONOMIA 003807, BANCO DE LA REPÚBLICA.
  7. Remberto Rhenals & Juan Pablo Saldarriaga, 2008. "An Optimal Taylor Rule for Colombia, 1991-2006," Lecturas de Economía, Universidad de Antioquia, Departamento de Economía, issue 69, pages 9-39, Julio-Dic.
  8. Julio, Juan Manuel & Cobo, Adolfo, 2000. "The Relationship between Wages and Prices in Colombia," MPRA Paper 29069, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 18 Jul 2000.
  9. Gloria Lucía Bernal Nisperuza & Johanna Táutiva Pradere, 2011. "Datos en tiempo real:una aplicación a la regla de taylor en Colombia," Revista de Economía Institucional, Universidad Externado de Colombia - Facultad de Economía, vol. 13(24), pages 373-394, January-J.

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