Probing Potential Output: Monetary Policy, Credibility, and Optimal Learning under Uncertainty

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Probing Potential Output: Monetary Policy, Credibility, and Optimal Learning under Uncertainty

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Yetman, James

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James Yetman

Abstract

The effective conduct of monetary policy is complicated by uncertainty about the level of potential output, and thus about the size of the monetary policy response that would be sufficient to achieve the targeted inflation rate. One possible response to such uncertainty is for the monetary authority to "probe," interpreted here as actively using its policy response to learn about the level of potential output. Monetary authorities have put significant emphasis in recent years on attaining credibility for their policy objectives. These steps have anchored inflation expectations to the target of the monetary authority more firmly. I consider a simple calibrated model in the Canadian context and examine the relationship between credibility and optimal probing. I find that, for plausible parameter values, the optimal amount of probing is small and varies little with credibility. Only for low levels of credibility or unrealistically large levels of uncertainty or volatility does the optimal policy with probing diverge significantly from a policy that ignores learning. Even then, the optimal amount of probing diminishes as credibility rises.

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Paper provided by Bank of Canada in its series Working Papers with number 00-10.

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Length: 37 pages
Date of creation: 2000
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Handle: RePEc:bca:bocawp:00-10

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Other versions of this item:

Article
- Yetman, James, 2003. "Probing potential output: Monetary policy, credibility, and optimal learning under uncertainty," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 25(3), pages 311-330, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
Paper
- James Yetman, 2000. "Probing Potential Output: Monetary Policy, Credibility And Optimal Learning Under Uncertainty," Computing in Economics and Finance 2000 181, Society for Computational Economics. [Downloadable!]

Find related papers by JEL classification:
E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies

This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

NEP-ALL-2000-07-03 (All new papers)
NEP-MON-2000-07-03 (Monetary Economics)

Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

Jean-Philippe Cayen & Simon van Norden, 2002. "La fiabilité des estimations de l'écart de production au Canada," Working Papers 02-10, Bank of Canada. [Downloadable!]
Doyle, Matthew, 2006. "On the Optimality of Delay in 'Monetary Policy as a Process of Search'," Staff General Research Papers 12503, Iowa State University, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
Tesfaselassie, Mewael F. & Schaling, Eric & Eijffinger, Sylvester, 2006. "Learning about the term structure and optimal rules for inflation targeting," Discussion Paper 88, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research. [Downloadable!]
Other versions:
- Eijffinger, Sylvester C W & Schaling, Eric & Tesfaselassie, Mewael F., 2006. "Learning About the Term Structure and Optimal Rules for Inflation Targeting," CEPR Discussion Papers 5896, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
- Tesfaselassie, M.F. & Schaling, E. & Eijffinger, S.C.W., 2006. "Learning About the Term Structure and Optimal Rules for Inflation Targeting," Research Paper ERS-2006-058-F&A Revision, Erasmus Research Institute of Management (ERIM), ERIM is the joint research institute of the Rotterdam School of Management, Erasmus University and the Erasmus School of Economics (ESE) at Erasmus Uni. [Downloadable!]

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