IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/bdr/borrec/240.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Efficient Policy Rule for Inflation Targeting in Colombia

Author

Listed:
  • Martha López P.

Abstract

In a small macroeconomic model of the Colombian economy I investigate the problem of selecting a policy rule that is consistent with inflation targeting. I spell out the characteristics of the optimal feedback and output parameters in the rule, as well as for the optimal forecasting horizont for inflation targeting.Using stochastic simulations of the model it is found that, as expected, rules that use forecasts of inflation rather than just contemporaneous inflation have stabilization properties

Suggested Citation

  • Martha López P., 2003. "Efficient Policy Rule for Inflation Targeting in Colombia," Borradores de Economia 240, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
  • Handle: RePEc:bdr:borrec:240
    DOI: 10.32468/be.240
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://doi.org/10.32468/be.240
    Download Restriction: no

    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.32468/be.240?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Blanchard, Olivier Jean & Quah, Danny, 1989. "The Dynamic Effects of Aggregate Demand and Supply Disturbances," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 79(4), pages 655-673, September.
    2. John B. Taylor, 1994. "The inflation/output variability trade-off revisited," Conference Series ; [Proceedings], Federal Reserve Bank of Boston, vol. 38, pages 21-24.
    3. N. Gregory Mankiw & Ricardo Reis, 2002. "Sticky Information versus Sticky Prices: A Proposal to Replace the New Keynesian Phillips Curve," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 117(4), pages 1295-1328.
    4. Svensson, Lars E. O., 1999. "Inflation targeting as a monetary policy rule," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 43(3), pages 607-654, June.
    5. Ben S. Bernanke & Julio J. Rotemberg (ed.), 1997. "NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1997," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 026252242x, December.
    6. Hodrick, Robert J & Prescott, Edward C, 1997. "Postwar U.S. Business Cycles: An Empirical Investigation," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 29(1), pages 1-16, February.
    7. Quispe Misaico, Zenón, 1998. "Una aproximación a la demanda de los principales agregados monetarios en el Perú: Junio 1991-Mayo 1997," Revista Estudios Económicos, Banco Central de Reserva del Perú, issue 3, pages 1-20.
    8. Pierre St-Amant & Simon van Norden, 1997. "Measurement of the Output Gap: A Discussion of Recent Research at the Bank of Canada," Technical Reports 79, Bank of Canada.
    9. David Gruen & Tim Robinson & Andrew Stone, 2002. "Output Gaps in Real Time: Are They Reliable Enough to Use for Monetary Policy?," RBA Research Discussion Papers rdp2002-06, Reserve Bank of Australia.
    10. Taylor, John B, 1979. "Estimation and Control of a Macroeconomic Model with Rational Expectations," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 47(5), pages 1267-1286, September.
    11. Harvey, A. & TTrimbur, T. & van Dijk, H., 2003. "Cyclical Components in Economic Time Series: a Bayesian Approach," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 0302, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
    12. Leo Butler, 1996. "The Bank of Canada's New Quarterly Porjection Model Part 4 : A Semi- Structural Method to Estimate Potential Output : Combining Economic Theory with a Time-Series Filter," Technical Reports 77, Bank of Canada.
    13. Javier Gómez & José Darío Uribe & Hernando Vargas, 2002. "The Implementation Of Inflation Targeting In Colombia," Borradores de Economia 3603, Banco de la Republica.
    14. Simon van Norden, 1995. "Why Is It So Hard to Measure the Current Output Gap?," Macroeconomics 9506001, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    15. Jeffrey C. Fuhrer, 1994. "Goals, guidelines, and constraints facing monetary policymakers: an overview," New England Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston, issue Sep, pages 3-15.
    16. Batini, Nicoletta & Nelson, Edward, 2001. "Optimal horizons for inflation targeting," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 25(6-7), pages 891-910, June.
    17. Quah, Danny, 1992. "The Relative Importance of Permanent and Transitory Components: Identification and Some Theoretical Bounds," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 60(1), pages 107-118, January.
    18. McCallum, Bennett T. & Nelson, Edward, 1999. "Nominal income targeting in an open-economy optimizing model," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 43(3), pages 553-578, June.
    19. Nicoletta Batini & Andrew Haldane, 1999. "Forward-Looking Rules for Monetary Policy," NBER Chapters, in: Monetary Policy Rules, pages 157-202, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    20. Blanchard, Olivier Jean & Kahn, Charles M, 1980. "The Solution of Linear Difference Models under Rational Expectations," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 48(5), pages 1305-1311, July.
    21. Calvo, Guillermo A., 1983. "Staggered prices in a utility-maximizing framework," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 12(3), pages 383-398, September.
    22. Glenn Rudebusch & Lars E.O. Svensson, 1999. "Policy Rules for Inflation Targeting," NBER Chapters, in: Monetary Policy Rules, pages 203-262, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    23. Laurence Ball, 1994. "What Determines the Sacrifice Ratio?," NBER Chapters, in: Monetary Policy, pages 155-193, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    24. Robert G. King, 1995. "Quantitative theory and econometrics," Economic Quarterly, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, issue Sum, pages 53-105.
    25. Julio J. Rotemberg & Michael Woodford, 1997. "An Optimization-Based Econometric Framework for the Evaluation of Monetary Policy," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1997, Volume 12, pages 297-361, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    26. Marianne Baxter & Robert G. King, 1999. "Measuring Business Cycles: Approximate Band-Pass Filters For Economic Time Series," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 81(4), pages 575-593, November.
    27. Clarida, Richard & Gali, Jordi & Gertler, Mark, 1998. "Monetary policy rules in practice Some international evidence," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 42(6), pages 1033-1067, June.
    28. Frank Smets, 2002. "Output gap uncertainty: Does it matter for the Taylor rule?," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 27(1), pages 113-129.
    29. Ben S. Bernanke & Frederic S. Mishkin, 1997. "Inflation Targeting: A New Framework for Monetary Policy?," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 11(2), pages 97-116, Spring.
    30. Clark, Todd E. & McCracken, Michael W., 2006. "The Predictive Content of the Output Gap for Inflation: Resolving In-Sample and Out-of-Sample Evidence," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 38(5), pages 1127-1148, August.
    31. Laurence M. Ball, 1999. "Policy Rules for Open Economies," NBER Chapters, in: Monetary Policy Rules, pages 127-156, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    32. Jesús Antonio Bejarano Rojas, 2005. "Estimación estructural y análisis de la curva de Phillips neokeynesiana para Colombia," Revista ESPE - Ensayos sobre Política Económica, Banco de la Republica de Colombia, vol. 23(48), pages 64-117, Junio.
    33. Renzo Rossini Miñán, 2002. "Aspectos de la adopción de un esquema de metas explícitas de inflación en el Perú," Revista de Análisis del BCB, Banco Central de Bolivia, vol. 5(1), pages 47-67, June.
    34. Harvey, A C & Jaeger, A, 1993. "Detrending, Stylized Facts and the Business Cycle," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 8(3), pages 231-247, July-Sept.
    35. Drew, Aaron & Hunt, Benjamin, 2000. "Efficient simple policy rules and the implications of potential output uncertainty," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 52(1-2), pages 143-160.
    36. Yasuo Hirose & Koichiro Kamada, 2001. "A New Technique for Simultaneous Estimation of the Output Gap and Phillips Curve," Bank of Japan Working Paper Series Research and Statistics D, Bank of Japan.
    37. Richard Dennis, 2000. "Optimal simple targeting rules for small open economies," Working Paper Series 2000-20, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    38. Ms. Sweta Chaman Saxena & Ms. Valerie Cerra, 2000. "Alternative Methods of Estimating Potential Output and the Output Gap: An Application to Sweden," IMF Working Papers 2000/059, International Monetary Fund.
    39. John B. Taylor, 1999. "Monetary Policy Rules," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number tayl99-1, March.
    40. Rünstler, Gerhard, 2002. "The information content of real-time output gap estimates, an application to the euro area," Working Paper Series 182, European Central Bank.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Andrés Giraldo & Martha Misas & Edgar Villa, 2012. "Reconstructing Colombia‘s Recent History of Monetary Policy from 1990 to 2010," Revista ESPE - Ensayos sobre Política Económica, Banco de la Republica de Colombia, vol. 30(67), pages 56-103, July.
    2. Urrutia, Miguel & Hofstetter, Marc & Hamann, Franz, 2014. "Inflation Targeting in Colombia, 2002-2012," IDB Publications (Working Papers) 6394, Inter-American Development Bank.
    3. Juan Manuel Julio Román, 2006. "The Monetary Policy Rule During The Transition To A Stable Level Of Inflation: The Case Of Colombia," Borradores de Economia 404, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
    4. Pietro Bonaldi & Andrés González & Diego Rodríguez, 2011. "Importancia de las rigideces nominales y reales en Colombia: un enfoque de equilibrio general dinámico y estocástico," Revista ESPE - Ensayos Sobre Política Económica, Banco de la República, vol. 29(66), pages 48-78, December.
    5. Andrés Felipe Giraldo Palomino, 2008. "Aversión a la inflación y regla de Taylor en Colombia 1994-2005," Revista Cuadernos de Economia, Universidad Nacional de Colombia, FCE, CID, December.
    6. Mr. Daniel Leigh, 2008. "Achieving a Soft Landing: The Role of Fiscal Policy," IMF Working Papers 2008/069, International Monetary Fund.
    7. Andrés Felipe Giraldo & Martha Misas Arango & Edgar Villa Pérez, 2011. "Reconstructing the recent monetary policy history of Colombia from 1990 to 2010," Vniversitas Económica 8860, Universidad Javeriana - Bogotá.
    8. Gloria Lucía Bernal Nisperuza & Johanna Táutiva Pradere, 2008. "Relevancia de los datos en tiempo real en la estimación de la regla de Taylor para Colombia," Documentos de Economía 5421, Universidad Javeriana - Bogotá.
    9. Gloria Lucía Bernal Nisperuza & Johanna Táutiva Pradere, 2011. "Datos en tiempo real:una aplicación a la regla de taylor en Colombia," Revista de Economía Institucional, Universidad Externado de Colombia - Facultad de Economía, vol. 13(24), pages 373-394, January-J.
    10. Edgar Villa & Martha A. Misas & Andrés F. Giraldo, 2014. "Inflation Targeting and an Optimal Taylor Rule for an Open Economy: Evidence for Colombia 1990-2011," Latin American Journal of Economics-formerly Cuadernos de Economía, Instituto de Economía. Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile., vol. 51(1), pages 41-83, May.
    11. Andrés Felipe Giraldo Palomino, 2010. "Aspectos institucionales de la Banca Central en Colombia (1963-2007)," Revista Cuadernos de Economia, Universidad Nacional de Colombia, FCE, CID, June.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Luis Gonzalo Llosa & Shirley Miller, 2004. "Using Additional Information in Estimating the Output Gap in Peru: a Multivariate Unobserved Component Approach," Money Affairs, CEMLA, vol. 0(1), pages 57-82, January-J.
    2. Adriana Arreaza & Enid Blanco & Miguel Dorta, 2004. "A Small Scale Macroeconomic Model for Venezuela," Money Affairs, CEMLA, vol. 0(1), pages 25-38, January-J.
    3. Wayne Robinson, 2004. "Real Shocks, Credibility & Stabilization Policy in a Small Open Economy," Money Affairs, CEMLA, vol. 0(1), pages 39-55, January-J.
    4. Batini, Nicoletta & Harrison, Richard & Millard, Stephen P., 2003. "Monetary policy rules for an open economy," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 27(11-12), pages 2059-2094, September.
    5. Coenen, Gunter & Wieland, Volker, 2005. "A small estimated euro area model with rational expectations and nominal rigidities," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 49(5), pages 1081-1104, July.
    6. Svensson, Lars E. O., 1999. "Inflation targeting as a monetary policy rule," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 43(3), pages 607-654, June.
    7. Lars E. O. Svensson, 2003. "What Is Wrong with Taylor Rules? Using Judgment in Monetary Policy through Targeting Rules," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 41(2), pages 426-477, June.
    8. Michael Paetz, 2007. "Robust Control and Persistence in the New Keynesian Economy," Quantitative Macroeconomics Working Papers 20711, Hamburg University, Department of Economics.
    9. Wieland, Volker & Coenen, Günter, 2002. "Inflation dynamics and international linkages: a model of the United States, the euro area and Japan," Working Paper Series 181, European Central Bank.
    10. Athanasios Orphanides & John C. Williams, 2002. "Robust Monetary Policy Rules with Unknown Natural Rates," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 33(2), pages 63-146.
    11. Mr. Eric Parrado, 2004. "Inflation Targeting and Exchange Rate Rules in an Open Economy," IMF Working Papers 2004/021, International Monetary Fund.
    12. Victor Gaiduch & Benjamin Hunt, 2000. "Inflation targeting under potential output uncertainty," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Discussion Paper Series DP2000/08, Reserve Bank of New Zealand.
    13. Leitemo, Kai, 2003. "Targeting Inflation by Constant-Interest-Rate Forecasts," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 35(4), pages 609-626, August.
    14. Raf Wouters & Michel Dombrecht, 2000. "Model-based inflation forecasts and monetary policy rules," Working Paper Research 01, National Bank of Belgium.
    15. Lars E. O. Svensson, 2003. "What Is Wrong with Taylor Rules? Using Judgment in Monetary Policy through Targeting Rules," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 41(2), pages 426-477, June.
    16. Mark Gertler & Jordi Gali & Richard Clarida, 1999. "The Science of Monetary Policy: A New Keynesian Perspective," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 37(4), pages 1661-1707, December.
    17. Caporale, Guglielmo Maria & Helmi, Mohamad Husam & Çatık, Abdurrahman Nazif & Menla Ali, Faek & Akdeniz, Coşkun, 2018. "Monetary policy rules in emerging countries: Is there an augmented nonlinear taylor rule?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 72(C), pages 306-319.
    18. Ms. Keiko Honjo & Mr. Benjamin L Hunt, 2006. "Stabilizing Inflation in Iceland," IMF Working Papers 2006/262, International Monetary Fund.
    19. Wieland, Volker & Wolters, Maik, 2013. "Forecasting and Policy Making," Handbook of Economic Forecasting, in: G. Elliott & C. Granger & A. Timmermann (ed.), Handbook of Economic Forecasting, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 0, pages 239-325, Elsevier.
    20. Isard, Peter & Laxton, Douglas & Eliasson, Ann-Charlotte, 2001. "Inflation targeting with NAIRU uncertainty and endogenous policy credibility," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 25(1-2), pages 115-148, January.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • C45 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods: Special Topics - - - Neural Networks and Related Topics
    • E41 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Demand for Money
    • E47 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bdr:borrec:240. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Clorith Angélica Bahos Olivera (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/brcgvco.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.