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Probing Potential Output: Monetary Policy, Credibility And Optimal Learning Under Uncertainty

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Author Info
James Yetman (Bank of Canada)

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Abstract

The effective conduct of monetary policy is hampered by uncertainty surrounding the level of potential output. Here, the case for following a more aggressive policy to learn about the economy is considered in a model where potential output is changing over time. Following such a policy may be referred to as probing or experimenting.In this model, with parameters calibrated to recent Canadian data, the optimal amount of probing is small and increases only a little with credibility. Only for unrealistically large amounts of uncertainty does the optimal policy with probing diverge significantly from a policy that ignores learning, and even then, for most forms of uncertainty, the optimal amount of probing diminishes as credibility rises.

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Paper provided by Society for Computational Economics in its series Computing in Economics and Finance 2000 with number 181.

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Date of creation: 05 Jul 2000
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Handle: RePEc:sce:scecf0:181

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Postal: CEF 2000, Departament d'Economia i Empresa, Universitat Pompeu Fabra, Ramon Trias Fargas, 25,27, 08005, Barcelona, Spain
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  1. repec:bep:macadv:v:6:y:2006:i:1:p:1288-1288 is not listed on IDEAS
  2. Doyle, Matthew, 2006. "On the Optimality of Delay in 'Monetary Policy as a Process of Search'," Staff General Research Papers 12503, Iowa State University, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
  3. Eijffinger, Sylvester C W & Schaling, Eric & Tesfaselassie, Mewael F., 2006. "Learning About the Term Structure and Optimal Rules for Inflation Targeting," CEPR Discussion Papers 5896, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  4. Jean-Philippe Cayen & Simon van Norden, 2002. "La fiabilité des estimations de l'écart de production au Canada," Working Papers 02-10, Bank of Canada. [Downloadable!]
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