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Learning About the Term Structure and Optimal Rules for Inflation Targeting

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Author Info
Eijffinger, Sylvester C W
Schaling, Eric
Tesfaselassie, Mewael F.

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Abstract

In this paper we incorporate the term structure of interest rates in a standard inflation forecast targeting framework. We find that under flexible inflation targeting and uncertainty in the degree of persistence in the economy, allowing for active learning possibilities has effects on the optimal interest rate rule followed by the central bank. For a wide range of possible initial beliefs about the unknown parameter, the dynamically optimal rule is in general more activist, in the sense of responding aggressively to the state of the economy, than the myopic rule for small to moderate deviations of the state variable from its target. On the other hand, for large deviations, the optimal policy is less activist than the myopic and the certainty equivalence policies.

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Paper provided by C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers in its series CEPR Discussion Papers with number 5896.

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Date of creation: Oct 2006
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Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:5896

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Related research
Keywords: learning rational expectations separation principle term structure of interest rates

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Other Model Applications
E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Determination of Interest Rates; Term Structure of Interest Rates
E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
F33 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Monetary Arrangements and Institutions

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  2. Ellison, Martin, 2003. "The Learning Cost of Interest Rate Reversals," CEPR Discussion Papers 4135, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  3. Richard Clarida & Jordi Gali & Mark Gertler, 1999. "The Science of Monetary Policy: A New Keynesian Perspective," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 37(4), pages 1661-1707, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  5. Eric Schaling, James Bullard, 2001. "New economy : new policy rules?," Computing in Economics and Finance 2001 53, Society for Computational Economics. [Downloadable!]
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  6. Wieland, Volker, 2000. "Learning by doing and the value of optimal experimentation," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 24(4), pages 501-534, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  7. James B. Bullard, 1991. "Learning, rational expectations and policy: a summary of recent research," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Jan, pages 50-60. [Downloadable!]
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  9. Svensson, Lars E. O., 1997. "Inflation forecast targeting: Implementing and monitoring inflation targets," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 41(6), pages 1111-1146, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  10. Eijffinger, Sylvester C W & Schaling, Eric & Verhagen, Willem, 2000. "The Term Structure of Interest Rates and Inflation Forecast Targeting," CEPR Discussion Papers 2375, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  11. George W. Evans & Seppo Honkapohja, 2003. "Adaptive learning and monetary policy design," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, pages 1045-1084.
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  12. Andrew T. Levin & Richhild Moessner, 2005. "Inflation persistence and monetary policy design - an overview," Working Paper Series 539, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
  13. Beck, Gunter W. & Wieland, Volker, 2002. "Learning and control in a changing economic environment," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 26(9-10), pages 1359-1377, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  14. Volker Wieland, 2006. "Monetary Policy and Uncertainty about the Natural Unemployment Rate: Brainard-Style Conservatism versus Experimental Activism," Advances in Macroeconomics, Berkeley Electronic Press, vol. 6(1), pages 1288-1288. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  15. Kiefer, Nicholas M & Nyarko, Yaw, 1989. "Optimal Control of an Unknown Linear Process with Learning," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 30(3), pages 571-86, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  16. Schaling, Eric, 2004. "The Nonlinear Phillips Curve and Inflation Forecast Targeting: Symmetric versus Asymmetric Monetary Policy Rules," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 36(3), pages 361-86, June.
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  17. Rudebusch, Glenn D. & Svensson, Lars E. O., 2002. "Eurosystem monetary targeting: Lessons from U.S. data," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 46(3), pages 417-442, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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