Advanced Search
MyIDEAS: Login to save this paper or follow this series

Learning About the Term Structure and Optimal Rules for Inflation Targeting

Contents:

Author Info

  • Eijffinger, Sylvester C W
  • Schaling, Eric
  • Tesfaselassie, Mewael F.

Abstract

In this paper we incorporate the term structure of interest rates in a standard inflation forecast targeting framework. We find that under flexible inflation targeting and uncertainty in the degree of persistence in the economy, allowing for active learning possibilities has effects on the optimal interest rate rule followed by the central bank. For a wide range of possible initial beliefs about the unknown parameter, the dynamically optimal rule is in general more activist, in the sense of responding aggressively to the state of the economy, than the myopic rule for small to moderate deviations of the state variable from its target. On the other hand, for large deviations, the optimal policy is less activist than the myopic and the certainty equivalence policies.

Download Info

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
File URL: http://www.cepr.org/pubs/dps/DP5896.asp
Download Restriction: CEPR Discussion Papers are free to download for our researchers, subscribers and members. If you fall into one of these categories but have trouble downloading our papers, please contact us at subscribers@cepr.org

As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.

Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers in its series CEPR Discussion Papers with number 5896.

as in new window
Length:
Date of creation: Oct 2006
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:5896

Contact details of provider:
Postal: Centre for Economic Policy Research, 77 Bastwick Street, London EC1V 3PZ.
Phone: 44 - 20 - 7183 8801
Fax: 44 - 20 - 7183 8820

Order Information:
Email:

Related research

Keywords: learning; rational expectations; separation principle; term structure of interest rates;

Other versions of this item:

Find related papers by JEL classification:

This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

References

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
as in new window
  1. Thomas Sargent & Noah Williams & Tao Zha, 2006. "The conquest of South American inflation," Working Paper 2006-20, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
  2. Svensson, L-E-O, 1996. "Inflation Forecast Targeting : Implementaing and Monitoring Inflation Targets," Papers 615, Stockholm - International Economic Studies.
  3. Eijffinger, S.C.W. & Schaling, E. & Verhagen, W.H., 1998. "The Term Structure of Interest Rates and Inflation Forecast Targeting," Discussion Paper 1998-85, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research.
  4. Mark Gertler & Jordi Gali & Richard Clarida, 1999. "The Science of Monetary Policy: A New Keynesian Perspective," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 37(4), pages 1661-1707, December.
  5. James Bullard & Eric Schaling, 2000. "New economy - new policy rules?," Working Papers 2000-019, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
  6. Beck, Gunter W. & Wieland, Volker, 2002. "Learning and control in a changing economic environment," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 26(9-10), pages 1359-1377, August.
  7. Ellison, Martin & Valla, Natacha, 2001. "Learning, uncertainty and central bank activism in an economy with strategic interactions," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 48(1), pages 153-171, August.
  8. Rudebusch, Glenn D. & Svensson, Lars E. O., 1999. "Eurosystem Monetary Targeting: Lessons from U.S. Data," Working Paper Series 92, Sveriges Riksbank (Central Bank of Sweden).
  9. Bullard, James & Mitra, Kaushik, 2002. "Learning about monetary policy rules," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(6), pages 1105-1129, September.
  10. James Bullard & Eric Schaling, 2005. "Monetary Policy, Determinacy, and Learnability in the Open Economy," Working Papers 11, Economic Research Southern Africa.
  11. Schaling, E., 1998. "The Nonlinear Phillips Curve and Inflation Forecast Targeting - Symmetric Versus Asymmetric Monetary Policy Rules," Discussion Paper 1998-136, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research.
  12. Stephen Pollock, 2002. "Recursive Estimation in Econometrics," Working Papers 462, Queen Mary, University of London, School of Economics and Finance.
  13. Pollock, D. S. G., 2003. "Recursive estimation in econometrics," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 44(1-2), pages 37-75, October.
  14. Schaling , Eric & Eijffinger , Sylvester & Tesfaselassie , Mewael, 2004. "Heterogeneous information about the term structure, least-squares learning and optimal rules for inflation targeting," Research Discussion Papers 23/2004, Bank of Finland.
  15. Ellison, Martin, 2006. "The learning cost of interest rate reversals," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 53(8), pages 1895-1907, November.
  16. James B. Bullard, 1991. "Learning, rational expectations and policy: a summary of recent research," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Jan, pages 50-60.
  17. Tesfaselassie, M.F., 2005. "Communication, Learning and Optimal Monetary Policy," Open Access publications from Tilburg University urn:nbn:nl:ui:12-173210, Tilburg University.
  18. Yetman, James, 2000. "Probing Potential Output: Monetary Policy, Credibility, and Optimal Learning under Uncertainty," Working Papers 00-10, Bank of Canada.
  19. Klok, H.J. & Schaik, A.B.T.M. van & Smulders, J.A., 2001. "Economologues: Liber Amicorum voor Theo van de Klundert," Open Access publications from Tilburg University urn:nbn:nl:ui:12-86472, Tilburg University.
  20. Kiefer, Nicholas M & Nyarko, Yaw, 1989. "Optimal Control of an Unknown Linear Process with Learning," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 30(3), pages 571-86, August.
  21. Levin, Andrew T. & Moessner, Richhild, 2005. "Inflation persistence and monetary policy design: an overview," Working Paper Series 0539, European Central Bank.
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

Citations

Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
as in new window

Cited by:
  1. Lars E.O. Svensson & Noah Williams, 2008. "Optimal Monetary Policy Under Uncertainty in DSGE Models: A Markov Jump-Linear-Quadratic Approach," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 484, Central Bank of Chile.
  2. Williams, Noah, 2012. "Monetary policy under financial uncertainty," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 59(5), pages 449-465.
  3. Lars E.O. Svensson & Noah Williams, 2008. "Optimal monetary policy under uncertainty: a Markov jump-linear-quadratic approach," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Jul, pages 275-294.
  4. Lars E.O. Svensson & Noah M. Williams, 2007. "Bayesian and Adaptive Optimal Policy under Model Uncertainty," NBER Working Papers 13414, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  5. repec:nbr:nberwo:13892 is not listed on IDEAS
  6. Mewael F. Tesfaselassie & Eric Schaling, 2009. "Managing Disinflation under Uncertainty," Working Papers 145, Economic Research Southern Africa.
  7. D.A. Kendrick & H.M. Amman & M.P. Tucci, 2008. "Learning About Learning in Dynamic Economic Models," Working Papers 08-20, Utrecht School of Economics.
  8. Svensson, Lars E.O., 2010. "Inflation Targeting," Handbook of Monetary Economics, in: Benjamin M. Friedman & Michael Woodford (ed.), Handbook of Monetary Economics, edition 1, volume 3, chapter 22, pages 1237-1302 Elsevier.
  9. Eric Schaling & Marco Hoeberichts, 2010. "Why Speed Doesn’t Kill: Learning to Believe in Disinflation," De Economist, Springer, vol. 158(1), pages 23-42, April.

Lists

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

Statistics

Access and download statistics

Corrections

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:5896. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: ().

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.