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Central Bank Misperceptions and the Role of Money in Interest Rate Rules

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  • Guenter Beck

    (Abteilung Geld und Währung)

  • Volker Wieland

    ()
    (Fachbereich Wirtschaftswissenschaft)

Abstract

Research with Keynesian-style models has emphasized the importance of the output gap for policies aimed at controlling inflation while declaring monetary aggregates largely irrelevant. Critics, however, have argued that these models need to be modifed to account for observed money growth and inflation trends, and that monetary trends may serve as a useful cross-check for monetary policy. We identify an important source of monetary trends in form of persistent central bank misperceptions regarding potential output. Simulations with historical output gap estimates indicate that such misperceptions may induce persistent errors in monetary policy and sustained trends in money growth and inflation. If interest rate prescriptions derived from Keynesian-style models are augmented with a cross-check against money-based estimates of trend inflation, inflation control is improved substantially.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Stanford Institute for Economic Policy Research in its series Discussion Papers with number 08-004.

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Date of creation: 2008
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Handle: RePEc:sip:dpaper:08-004

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Keywords: Taylor rule; money; quantity theory; output gap uncertainty; monetary policy under uncertainty;

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References

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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Barthélemy, Jean & Clerc, Laurent & Marx, Magali, 2011. "A two-pillar DSGE monetary policy model for the euro area," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 28(3), pages 1303-1316, May.
  2. Chevapatrakul, Thanaset & Kim, Tae-Hwan & Mizen, Paul, 2012. "Monetary information and monetary policy decisions: Evidence from the euroarea and the UK," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 34(2), pages 326-341.
  3. Jens Boysen-Hogrefe, 2014. "Monetary aggregates to improve early output gap estimates in the euro area - an empirical assessment," Kiel Working Papers 1908, Kiel Institute for the World Economy.
  4. Orphanides, Athanasios & Wieland, Volker, 2012. "Complexity and monetary policy," IMFS Working Paper Series 57, Institute for Monetary and Financial Stability (IMFS), Goethe University Frankfurt.
  5. Bursian, Dirk & Roth, Markus, 2013. "Optimal policy and taylor rule cross-checking under parameter uncertainty," SAFE Working Paper Series 30, Research Center SAFE - Sustainable Architecture for Finance in Europe, Goethe University Frankfurt.
  6. Beck, Guenter W. & Wieland, Volker, 2009. "Money in monetary policy design: Monetary cross-checking in the New-Keynesian Model," CFS Working Paper Series 2009/19, Center for Financial Studies (CFS).
  7. Orphanides, Athanasios, 2010. "Monetary Policy Lessons from the Crisis," CEPR Discussion Papers 7891, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  8. Alfred A. Haug & William G. Dewald, 2010. "Money, Output and Inflation in the Longer Term: Major Industrial Countries, 1880-2001," Working Papers 1013, University of Otago, Department of Economics, revised Sep 2010.
  9. Bletzinger, Tilman & Wieland, Volker, 2013. "Estimating the European Central Bank's "Extended Period of Time"," IMFS Working Paper Series 74, Institute for Monetary and Financial Stability (IMFS), Goethe University Frankfurt.
  10. Matteo Barigozzi & Antonio Conti, 2013. "On the Stability of Euro Area Money Demand and its Implications for Monetary Policy," LEM Papers Series 2013/11, Laboratory of Economics and Management (LEM), Sant'Anna School of Advanced Studies, Pisa, Italy.
  11. Seitz, Franz & Schmidt, Markus A., 2014. "Money in modern macro models: A review of the arguments," OTH im Dialog: Weidener Diskussionspapiere 37, University of Applied Sciences Amberg-Weiden (OTH).
  12. Schmidt, Sebastian & Wieland, Volker, 2013. "The New Keynesian Approach to Dynamic General Equilibrium Modeling: Models, Methods and Macroeconomic Policy Evaluation," Handbook of Computable General Equilibrium Modeling, Elsevier.
  13. Otmar Issing, 2011. "Lessons for monetary policy: what should the consensus be?," Globalization and Monetary Policy Institute Working Paper 81, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
  14. Helge Berger & Henning Weber, 2012. "Money As Indicator for the Natural Rate of Interest," IMF Working Papers 12/6, International Monetary Fund.
  15. Issing, Otmar, 2011. "Lessons for monetary policy: What should the consensus be?," CFS Working Paper Series 2011/13, Center for Financial Studies (CFS).
  16. Roth, Markus & Bursian, Dirk, 2012. "Taylor rule cross-checking and selective monetary policy adjustment," Annual Conference 2012 (Goettingen): New Approaches and Challenges for the Labor Market of the 21st Century 62078, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.

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