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Money in monetary policy design: Monetary cross-checking in the New-Keynesian model

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  • Beck, Günter
  • Wieland, Volker

Abstract

In the New-Keynesian model, optimal interest rate policy under uncertainty is formulated without reference to monetary aggregates as long as certain standard assumptions on the distributions of unobservables are satisfied. The model has been criticized for failing to explain common trends in money growth and inflation, and that therefore money should be used as a cross-check in policy formulation (see Lucas (2007)). We show that the New-Keynesian model can explain such trends if one allows for the possibility of persistent central bank misperceptions. Such misperceptions motivate the search for policies that include additional robustness checks. In earlier work, we proposed an interest rate rule that is near-optimal in normal times but includes a cross-check with monetary information. In case of unusual monetary trends, interest rates are adjusted. In this paper, we show in detail how to derive the appropriate magnitude of the interest rate adjustment following a significant cross-check with monetary information, when the New-Keynesian model is the central bank's preferred model. The cross-check is shown to be effective in offsetting persistent deviations of inflation due to central bank misperceptions.

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Paper provided by C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers in its series CEPR Discussion Papers with number 7518.

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Date of creation: Oct 2009
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Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:7518

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Keywords: European Central Bank; monetary policy; money; New-Keynesian model; policy under uncertainty; quantity theory;

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References

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  1. Beck, Günter W. & Wieland, Volker, 2007. "Money in monetary policy design under uncertainty: the Two-Pillar Phillips Curve versus ECB-style cross-checking," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2007,20, Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Centre.
  2. Assenmacher-Wesche, Katrin & Gerlach, Stefan, 2008. "Interpreting euro area inflation at high and low frequencies," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 52(6), pages 964-986, August.
  3. Orphanides, Athanasios & Porter, Richard D. & Reifschneider, David & Tetlow, Robert & Finan, Frederico, 2000. "Errors in the measurement of the output gap and the design of monetary policy," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 52(1-2), pages 117-141.
  4. Beck, Günter & Wieland, Volker, 2008. "Central Bank Misperceptions and the Role of Money in Interest Rate Rules," CEPR Discussion Papers 6947, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  5. Peter N. Ireland, 2000. "Money's Role in the Monetary Business Cycle," Boston College Working Papers in Economics 458, Boston College Department of Economics.
  6. Lars E.O. Svensson & Michael Woodford, 2000. "Indicator variables for optimal policy," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
  7. Gunter Coenen & Andrew Levin & Volker Wieland, 2001. "Data uncertainty and the role of money as an information variable for monetary policy," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2001-54, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  8. Volker Wieland, 1996. "Learning by doing and the value of optimal experimentation," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 96-5, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  9. Lawrence J. Christiano & Massimo Rostagno, 2001. "Money Growth Monitoring and the Taylor Rule," NBER Working Papers 8539, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  10. Mark Gertler & Jordi Gali & Richard Clarida, 1999. "The Science of Monetary Policy: A New Keynesian Perspective," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 37(4), pages 1661-1707, December.
  11. Javier Andrés & J. David López-Salido & Javier Vallés, 2006. "Money in an Estimated Business Cycle Model of the Euro Area," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 116(511), pages 457-477, 04.
  12. Orphanides, Athanasios, 2000. "The quest for prosperity without inflation," Working Paper Series 0015, European Central Bank.
  13. Benati, Luca, 2009. "Long run evidence on money growth and inflation," Working Paper Series 1027, European Central Bank.
  14. Beck, Günter & Wieland, Volker, 2007. "Money in Monetary Policy Design: A Formal Characterization of ECB-Style Cross-Checking," CEPR Discussion Papers 6097, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  15. Beck, Gunter W. & Wieland, Volker, 2002. "Learning and control in a changing economic environment," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 26(9-10), pages 1359-1377, August.
  16. Mark Bils & Peter J. Klenow, 2004. "Some Evidence on the Importance of Sticky Prices," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 112(5), pages 947-985, October.
  17. Marvin Goodfriend & Robert King, 1997. "The New Neoclassical Synthesis and the Role of Monetary Policy," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1997, Volume 12, pages 231-296 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  18. William Kerr & Robert G. King, 1996. "Limits on interest rate rules in the IS model," Economic Quarterly, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, issue Spr, pages 47-75.
  19. Julio Rotemberg & Michael Woodford, 1997. "An Optimization-Based Econometric Framework for the Evaluation of Monetary Policy," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1997, Volume 12, pages 297-361 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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