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Interpreting Euro Area Inflation at High and Low Frequencies

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  • Assenmacher-Wesche, Katrin
  • Gerlach, Stefan

Abstract

Several authors have recently interpreted the ECB's two-pillar framework as separate approaches to forecast and analyse inflation at different time horizons or frequency bands. The ECB has publicly supported this understanding of the framework. This paper presents further evidence on the behaviour of euro area inflation using band spectrum regressions, which allow for a natural definition of the short and long run in terms of specific frequency bands, and causality tests in the frequency domain. The main finding is that variations in inflation are well explained by low-frequency movements of money and real income growth and high-frequency fluctuations of the output gap.

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Paper provided by C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers in its series CEPR Discussion Papers with number 5632.

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Date of creation: Apr 2006
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Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:5632

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Keywords: frequency domain; inflation; money growth; quantity theory; spectral regression;

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