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Interpreting Euro Area Inflation at High and Low Frequencies

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Author Info
Assenmacher-Wesche, Katrin
Gerlach, Stefan

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Abstract

Several authors have recently interpreted the ECB's two-pillar framework as separate approaches to forecast and analyse inflation at different time horizons or frequency bands. The ECB has publicly supported this understanding of the framework. This paper presents further evidence on the behaviour of euro area inflation using band spectrum regressions, which allow for a natural definition of the short and long run in terms of specific frequency bands, and causality tests in the frequency domain. The main finding is that variations in inflation are well explained by low-frequency movements of money and real income growth and high-frequency fluctuations of the output gap.

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Paper provided by C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers in its series CEPR Discussion Papers with number 5632.

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Date of creation: Apr 2006
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Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:5632

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Related research
Keywords: frequency domain inflation money growth quantity theory spectral regression

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models
E3 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles
E5 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit

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References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
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    Other versions:
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  26. Assenmacher-Wesche, Katrin & Gerlach, Stefan, 2006. "Understanding the Link between Money Growth and Inflation in the Euro Area," CEPR Discussion Papers 5683, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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Full references

Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Woodford, Michael, 2007. "Does a 'Two-Pillar Phillips Curve' Justify a Two-Pillar Monetary Policy Strategy?," CEPR Discussion Papers 6447, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  2. Assenmacher-Wesche, Katrin & Gerlach, Stefan, 2006. "Money Growth, Output Gaps and Inflation at Low and High Frequency: Spectral Estimates for Switzerland," CEPR Discussion Papers 5723, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  3. Michael Woodford, 2007. "How Important is Money in the Conduct of Monetary Policy?," Levine's Working Paper Archive 122247000000001419, UCLA Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  4. Guenter W. Beck & Volker Wieland, 2007. "Money in Monetary Policy Design under Uncertainty: The Two-Pillar Phillips Curve versus ECB-Style Cross-Checking," CFS Working Paper Series 2007/17, Center for Financial Studies. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  5. Boris Hofmann, 2008. "Do monetary indicators lead euro area inflation?," Working Paper Series 867, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
  6. Kai Carstensen, 2007. "Is core money growth a good and stable inflation predictor in the euro area?," Kiel Working Papers 1318, Kiel Institute for the World Economy. [Downloadable!]
  7. Berger, Helge & Österholm, Pär, 2007. "Does Money Growth Granger-Cause Inflation in the Euro Area? Evidence from Out-of-Sample Forecasts Using Bayesian VARs," Working Paper Series 2007:30, Uppsala University, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  8. Assenmacher-Wesche, Katrin & Gerlach, Stefan, 2006. "Money at Low Frequencies," CEPR Discussion Papers 5868, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
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