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Seasonal Adjustment and Signal Extraction in Economic Time Series

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Author Info

  • Víctor Gómez
  • Agustín Maravall

Abstract

The paper deals with seasonal adjustment and trend estimation as a signal extraction problem in a regression-ARIMA model-based framework. This framework includes the capacity to preadjust the series by removing outliers and deterministic effects in general. For the preadjusted series the model considered is that of an ARIMA model for the aggregate series, with ARIMA-type models for the components.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Banco de Espa�a in its series Banco de Espa�a Working Papers with number 9809.

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Length: 61 pages
Date of creation: 1998
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:bde:wpaper:9809

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Web page: http://www.bde.es/
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Related research

Keywords: TIME SERIES ; SEASONAL FLUCTUATIONS;

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Cited by:
  1. Cagri Sarikaya & Fethi Ogunc & Dilara Ece & Hakan Kara & Umit Ozlale, 2005. "Estimating Output Gap for the Turkish Economy," Working Papers 0503, Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey.
  2. Bušs, Ginters, 2009. "Comparing forecasts of Latvia's GDP using simple seasonal ARIMA models and direct versus indirect approach," MPRA Paper 16684, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  3. Agustín Maravall Herrero & Domingo Pérez Cañete, 2011. "Applying and interpreting model-based seasonal adjustment. The euro-area industrial production series," Banco de Espa�a Working Papers 1116, Banco de Espa�a.
  4. Gianluca Caporello & Agustín Maravall & Fernando J. Sánchez, 2001. "Program TSW Reference Manual," Banco de Espa�a Working Papers 0112, Banco de Espa�a.
  5. Ece Oral & Dilara Ece & Turknur Hamsici, 2005. "Building Up a Real Sector Business Confidence Index for Turkey," Central Bank Review, Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey, vol. 5(1), pages 23-54.
  6. Marcus Scheiblecker, 2003. "The Working Days Effect in the Calculation of Quarterly GDP. An Empirical Analysis using Seasonal Time Series Models," WIFO Monatsberichte (monthly reports), WIFO, vol. 76(11), pages 829-839, November.
  7. Assenmacher-Wesche, Katrin & Gerlach, Stefan, 2008. "Interpreting euro area inflation at high and low frequencies," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 52(6), pages 964-986, August.
  8. Guido Bulligan & Roberto Golinelli & Giuseppe Parigi, 2010. "Forecasting monthly industrial production in real-time: from single equations to factor-based models," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 39(2), pages 303-336, October.
  9. Jyh-Ying Peng & John A. D. Aston, . "The State Space Models Toolbox for MATLAB," Journal of Statistical Software, American Statistical Association, vol. 41(i06).
  10. Agustín Maravall & Fernando J. Sánchez, 2000. "An Application of TRAMO-SEATS: Model Selection and Out-of-Sample Performance: the Swiss CPI Series," Banco de Espa�a Working Papers 0014, Banco de Espa�a.
  11. Oguz Atuk & Beyza Pinar Ural, 2002. "Seasonal Adjustment Methods : An Application to the Turkish Monetary Aggregates," Central Bank Review, Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey, vol. 2(1), pages 21-37.
  12. Aslihan Atabek & Oguz Atuk & Evren Erdogan Cosar & Cagri Sarikaya, 2009. "Mevsimsel Modellerde Calisma Gunu Degiskeni," CBT Research Notes in Economics 0903, Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey.
  13. Roberto Iannaccone & Edoardo Otranto, 2003. "Signal Extraction in Continuous Time and the Generalized Hodrick- Prescott Filter," Econometrics 0311002, EconWPA.
  14. Luis J. Álvarez & María de los Llanos Matea, 1999. "Underlying Inflation Measures in Spain," Banco de Espa�a Working Papers 9911, Banco de Espa�a.
  15. Javier J. Pérez & Jesús Rodríguez López & Carlos Usabiaga, 2002. "Análisis Dinámico de la Relación entre Ciclo Económico y Ciclo del Desempleo en Andalucía en Comparación con el Resto de España," Economic Working Papers at Centro de Estudios Andaluces E2002/07, Centro de Estudios Andaluces.

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