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Money at Low Frequencies

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  • Assenmacher-Wesche, Katrin
  • Gerlach, Stefan

Abstract

Many central banks have abandoned monetary targeting because the link between money growth and inflation seemed to disappear in the 1980s. Using spectral regression techniques, we show that for the euro area, Japan, the UK and the US there is a unit relationship between money growth and inflation at low frequencies when the impact of interest rate changes on money demand is accounted for. We estimate Phillips-curve equations in which the low-frequency information from money growth is combined with high-frequency information from the output gap to explain movements in inflation.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers in its series CEPR Discussion Papers with number 5868.

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Date of creation: Oct 2006
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Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:5868

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Keywords: frequency domain; Phillips curve; Quantity theory; spectral regression;

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  1. Beck, Günter & Wieland, Volker, 2007. "Money in Monetary Policy Design under Uncertainty: The Two-Pillar Phillips Curve versus ECB-Style Cross-Checking," CEPR Discussion Papers 6098, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  2. Katrin Assenmacher-Wesche & Stefan Gerlach, 2006. "Money Growth, Output Gaps and Inflation at Low and High Frequency: Spectral Estimates for Switzerland," Working Papers 2006-05, Swiss National Bank.
  3. James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 1991. "A simple estimator of cointegrating vectors in higher order integrated systems," Working Paper Series, Macroeconomic Issues 91-3, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
  4. Terry J. Fitzgerald, 1999. "Money growth and inflation: how long is the long run?," Economic Commentary, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, issue Aug.
  5. Jordi Galí & Mark Gertler & David López-Salido, 2005. "Robustness of the Estimates of the Hybrid New Keynesian Phillips Curve," Banco de Espa�a Working Papers 0520, Banco de Espa�a.
  6. R. F. Engle, 1972. "Band Spectrum Regressions," Working papers 96, Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Department of Economics.
  7. Stefan Gerlach & Katrin Assenmacher-Wesche, 2006. "Interpreting Euro area inflation at high and low frequencies," BIS Working Papers 195, Bank for International Settlements.
  8. Pagan, Adrian, 1984. "Econometric Issues in the Analysis of Regressions with Generated Regressors," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 25(1), pages 221-47, February.
  9. Paul De Grauwe & Magdalena Polan, 2005. "Is Inflation Always and Everywhere a Monetary Phenomenon?," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 107(2), pages 239-259, 06.
  10. Benati, Luca, 2009. "Long run evidence on money growth and inflation," Working Paper Series 1027, European Central Bank.
  11. Breitung, Jorg & Candelon, Bertrand, 2006. "Testing for short- and long-run causality: A frequency-domain approach," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 132(2), pages 363-378, June.
  12. Clive, W.J. & Lin, Jin-Lung, 1995. "Causality in the Long Run," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 11(03), pages 530-536, June.
  13. Assenmacher-Wesche, Katrin & Gerlach, Stefan, 2006. "Understanding the Link between Money Growth and Inflation in the Euro Area," CEPR Discussion Papers 5683, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  14. Samuel Reynard, 2006. "Money and the Great Disinflation," Working Papers 2006-07, Swiss National Bank.
  15. Michael D. Bordo & Andrew Filardo, 2007. "Money Still Makes the World Go Round: The Zonal View," Journal of the European Economic Association, MIT Press, vol. 5(2-3), pages 509-523, 04-05.
  16. Stefan Gerlach, 2004. "The two pillars of the European Central Bank," Economic Policy, CEPR & CES & MSH, vol. 19(40), pages 389-439, October.
  17. Lucas, Robert E, Jr, 1980. "Two Illustrations of the Quantity Theory of Money," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 70(5), pages 1005-14, December.
  18. repec:cup:etheor:v:11:y:1995:i:3:p:530-36 is not listed on IDEAS
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