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Money at Low Frequencies

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Author Info
Katrin Assenmacher-Wesche
Stefan Gerlach

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Abstract

Many central banks have abandoned monetary targeting because the link between money growth and inflation seemed to disappear in the 1980s. Using spectral regression techniques, we show that for the euro area, Japan, the UK, and the US there is a unit relationship between money growth and inflation at low frequencies when the impact of interest rate changes on money demand is accounted for. We estimate Phillips-curve equations in which the low-frequency information from money growth is combined with high-frequency information from the output gap to explain movements in inflation. (JEL: C22, E3) (c) 2007 by the European Economic Association.

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File URL: http://www.mitpressjournals.org/doi/pdfplus/10.1162/JEEA.2007.5.2-3.534
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Article provided by MIT Press in its journal Journal of the European Economic Association.

Volume (Year): 5 (2007)
Issue (Month): 2-3 (04-05)
Pages: 534-542
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Handle: RePEc:tpr:jeurec:v:5:y:2007:i:2-3:p:534-542

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References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Clive, W.J. & Lin, Jin-Lung, 1995. "Causality in the Long Run," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 11(03), pages 530-536, June. [Downloadable!]
  2. Reynard, Samuel, 2006. "Money and the Great Disinflation," Working Papers 2006-7, Swiss National Bank. [Downloadable!]
  3. Gali, Jordi & Gertler, Mark & David Lopez-Salido, J., 2005. "Robustness of the estimates of the hybrid New Keynesian Phillips curve," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 52(6), pages 1107-1118, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  4. Assenmacher-Wesche, Katrin & Gerlach, Stefan, 2006. "Interpreting Euro Area Inflation at High and Low Frequencies," CEPR Discussion Papers 5632, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  5. Engle, Robert F, 1974. "Band Spectrum Regression," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 15(1), pages 1-11, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  6. Stock, James H & Watson, Mark W, 1993. "A Simple Estimator of Cointegrating Vectors in Higher Order Integrated Systems," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 61(4), pages 783-820, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  7. Michael D. Bordo & Andrew Filardo, 2007. "Money Still Makes the World Go Round: The Zonal View," Journal of the European Economic Association, MIT Press, vol. 5(2-3), pages 509-523, 04-05. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  8. repec:cup:etheor:v:11:y:1995:i:3:p:530-36 is not listed on IDEAS
  9. Paul De Grauwe & Magdalena Polan, 2005. "Is Inflation Always and Everywhere a Monetary Phenomenon?," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 107(2), pages 239-259, 06. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  10. Pagan, Adrian, 1984. "Econometric Issues in the Analysis of Regressions with Generated Regressors," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 25(1), pages 221-47, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  11. Lucas, Robert E, Jr, 1980. "Two Illustrations of the Quantity Theory of Money," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 70(5), pages 1005-14, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  12. Terry J. Fitzgerald, 1999. "Money growth and inflation: how long is the long run?," Economic Commentary, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, issue Aug 1. [Downloadable!]
  13. Beck, Günter & Wieland, Volker, 2007. "Money in Monetary Policy Design under Uncertainty: The Two-Pillar Phillips Curve versus ECB-Style Cross-Checking," CEPR Discussion Papers 6098, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  14. Assenmacher-Wesche, Katrin & Gerlach, Stefan, 2006. "Money Growth, Output Gaps and Inflation at Low and High Frequency: Spectral Estimates for Switzerland," CEPR Discussion Papers 5723, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  15. Assenmacher-Wesche, Katrin & Gerlach, Stefan, 2006. "Understanding the Link between Money Growth and Inflation in the Euro Area," CEPR Discussion Papers 5683, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  16. Stefan Gerlach, 2004. "The two pillars of the European Central Bank," Economic Policy, CEPR, CES, MSH, vol. 19(40), pages 389-439, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  17. Breitung, Jorg & Candelon, Bertrand, 2006. "Testing for short- and long-run causality: A frequency-domain approach," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 132(2), pages 363-378, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Olga Arratibel & Christophe Kamps & Nadine Leiner-Killinger, 2009. "Inflation forecasting in the new EU member states," Working Paper Series 1015, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
  2. Beck, Günter & Wieland, Volker, 2007. "Money in Monetary Policy Design: A Formal Characterization of ECB-Style Cross-Checking," CEPR Discussion Papers 6097, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  3. Guenter W. Beck & Volker Wieland, 2007. "Money in Monetary Policy Design under Uncertainty: The Two-Pillar Phillips Curve versus ECB-Style Cross-Checking," CFS Working Paper Series 2007/17, Center for Financial Studies. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  4. Lee , Jim & Crowley, Patrick M, 2009. "Evaluating the stresses from ECB monetary policy in the euro area," Research Discussion Papers 11/2009, Bank of Finland. [Downloadable!]
  5. Edward Nelson, 2008. "Why money growth determines inflation in the long run: answering the Woodford critique," Working Papers 2008-013, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  6. Assenmacher-Wesche, Katrin & Gerlach, Stefan & Sekine, Toshitaka, 2008. "Monetary Factors and Inflation in Japan," CEPR Discussion Papers 6650, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  7. Felix Geiger & Oliver Sauter, 2009. "Deflationary vs. Inflationary Expectations - A New-Keynesian Perspective with Heterogeneous Agents and Monetary Believes," Diskussionspapiere aus dem Institut für Volkswirtschaftslehre der Universität Hohenheim 312/2009, Department of Economics, University of Hohenheim, Germany. [Downloadable!]
  8. Roberto A. De Santis & Carlo A. Favero & Barbara Roffia, 2008. "Euro area money demand and international portfolio allocation - a contribution to assessing risks to price stability," Working Paper Series 926, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
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