IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/ecosta/v6y2018icp57-73.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Assessing causality and delay within a frequency band

Author

Listed:
  • Breitung, Jörg
  • Schreiber, Sven

Abstract

The frequency-specific Granger causality test is extended to a more general null hypothesis that allows causality testing at unknown frequencies within a pre-specified range of frequencies. This setup corresponds better to empirical situations encountered in applied research and it is easily implemented in vector autoregressive models. Furthermore tools are provided to estimate and determine the sampling uncertainty of the phase shift/delay at some pre-specified frequency or frequency band. In an empirical application dealing with the dynamics of CO2 emissions and US temperatures it is found that emissions cause temperature changes only at very low frequencies with more than 30 years of oscillation. In a business cycle application the causality and leading properties of new orders for German industrial production are analyzed at the interesting frequencies.

Suggested Citation

  • Breitung, Jörg & Schreiber, Sven, 2018. "Assessing causality and delay within a frequency band," Econometrics and Statistics, Elsevier, vol. 6(C), pages 57-73.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecosta:v:6:y:2018:i:c:p:57-73
    DOI: 10.1016/j.ecosta.2017.04.005
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2452306217300370
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only. Contains open access articles
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.ecosta.2017.04.005?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version below or search for a different version of it.

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Toda, Hiro Y & Phillips, Peter C B, 1993. "Vector Autoregressions and Causality," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 61(6), pages 1367-1393, November.
    2. Assenmacher-Wesche, Katrin & Gerlach, Stefan, 2008. "Money growth, output gaps and inflation at low and high frequency: Spectral estimates for Switzerland," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 32(2), pages 411-435, February.
    3. Croux, Christophe & Reusens, Peter, 2013. "Do stock prices contain predictive power for the future economic activity? A Granger causality analysis in the frequency domain," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 35(C), pages 93-103.
    4. Yanfeng Wei, 2015. "The informational role of commodity prices in formulating monetary policy: a reexamination under the frequency domain," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 49(2), pages 537-549, September.
    5. Toda, Hiro Y. & Yamamoto, Taku, 1995. "Statistical inference in vector autoregressions with possibly integrated processes," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 66(1-2), pages 225-250.
    6. Sims, Christopher A & Stock, James H & Watson, Mark W, 1990. "Inference in Linear Time Series Models with Some Unit Roots," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 58(1), pages 113-144, January.
    7. Beveridge, Stephen & Nelson, Charles R., 1981. "A new approach to decomposition of economic time series into permanent and transitory components with particular attention to measurement of the `business cycle'," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 7(2), pages 151-174.
    8. Katrin Assenmacher-Wesche & Stefan Gerlach, 2007. "Money at Low Frequencies," Journal of the European Economic Association, MIT Press, vol. 5(2-3), pages 534-542, 04-05.
    9. Shiller, Robert J, 1979. "The Volatility of Long-Term Interest Rates and Expectations Models of the Term Structure," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 87(6), pages 1190-1219, December.
    10. Assenmacher-Wesche, Katrin & Gerlach, Stefan, 2008. "Interpreting euro area inflation at high and low frequencies," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 52(6), pages 964-986, August.
    11. Clive, W.J. & Lin, Jin-Lung, 1995. "Causality in the Long Run," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 11(3), pages 530-536, June.
    12. Granger, C W J, 1969. "Investigating Causal Relations by Econometric Models and Cross-Spectral Methods," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 37(3), pages 424-438, July.
    13. Hiroshi Yamada & Wei Yanfeng, 2014. "Some Theoretical and Simulation Results on the Frequency Domain Causality Test," Econometric Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 33(8), pages 936-947, November.
    14. Lemmens, Aurélie & Croux, Christophe & Dekimpe, Marnik G., 2008. "Measuring and testing Granger causality over the spectrum: An application to European production expectation surveys," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 24(3), pages 414-431.
    15. Breitung, Jorg & Candelon, Bertrand, 2006. "Testing for short- and long-run causality: A frequency-domain approach," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 132(2), pages 363-378, June.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Strohsal, Till & Proaño, Christian R. & Wolters, Jürgen, 2019. "Characterizing the financial cycle: Evidence from a frequency domain analysis," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 106(C), pages 568-591.
    2. Jair N. Ojeda-Joya & Oscar Jaulin-Mendez & Juan C. Bustos-Peláez, 2019. "The Interdependence Between Commodity-Price and GDP Cycles: A Frequency-Domain Approach," Atlantic Economic Journal, Springer;International Atlantic Economic Society, vol. 47(3), pages 275-292, September.
    3. Rangan Gupta & Patrick Kanda & Mark E. Wohar, 2021. "Predicting Stock Market Movements in the United States: The Role of Presidential Approval Ratings," International Review of Finance, International Review of Finance Ltd., vol. 21(1), pages 324-335, March.
    4. Candelon, Bertrand & Hasse, Jean-Baptiste, 2023. "Testing for causality between climate policies and carbon emissions reduction," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 55(PA).
    5. Matteo Farnè & Angela Montanari, 2022. "A Bootstrap Method to Test Granger-Causality in the Frequency Domain," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 59(3), pages 935-966, March.
    6. Theologos Dergiades & Panos K. Pouliasis, 2023. "Should stock returns predictability be ‘hooked on’ long‐horizon regressions?," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 28(1), pages 718-732, January.
    7. Daouda Coulibaly & Fulgence Zran Goueu, 2019. "An Empirical Analysis of the Link between Economic Growth and Exports in Côte d’Ivoire," International Business Research, Canadian Center of Science and Education, vol. 12(9), pages 94-104, September.
    8. Wei, Yanfeng & Zhang, Liguo & Guo, Xiaoying & Yang, Ting, 2021. "A theoretical and simulation analysis on the power of the frequency domain causality test," Statistics & Probability Letters, Elsevier, vol. 170(C).
    9. Süssmuth, Bernd, 2019. "Bitcoin and Web Search Query Dynamics: Is the price driving the hype or is the hype driving the price?," VfS Annual Conference 2019 (Leipzig): 30 Years after the Fall of the Berlin Wall - Democracy and Market Economy 203566, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    10. Bernd Süssmuth, 2022. "The mutual predictability of Bitcoin and web search dynamics," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 41(3), pages 435-454, April.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Tiwari, Aviral Kumar, 2012. "An empirical investigation of causality between producers' price and consumers' price indices in Australia in frequency domain," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 29(5), pages 1571-1578.
    2. Ritabrata Bose & Ashima Goyal, 2020. "Disaggregated Indian industrial cycles: A Spectral analysis," Indira Gandhi Institute of Development Research, Mumbai Working Papers 2020-033, Indira Gandhi Institute of Development Research, Mumbai, India.
    3. Matteo Farnè & Angela Montanari, 2022. "A Bootstrap Method to Test Granger-Causality in the Frequency Domain," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 59(3), pages 935-966, March.
    4. Tiwari, Aviral Kumar & Jena, Sangram Keshari & Mitra, Amarnath & Yoon, Seong-Min, 2018. "Impact of oil price risk on sectoral equity markets: Implications on portfolio management," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 72(C), pages 120-134.
    5. Claudiu Tiberiu Albulescu & Cornel Oros & Aviral Kumar Tiwari, 2017. "Oil price–inflation pass-through in Romania during the inflation targeting regime," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 49(15), pages 1527-1542, March.
    6. Assenmacher-Wesche, Katrin & Gerlach, Stefan & Sekine, Toshitaka, 2008. "Monetary factors and inflation in Japan," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 22(3), pages 343-363, September.
    7. Bekiros, Stelios & Nguyen, Duc Khuong & Uddin, Gazi Salah & Sjö, Bo, 2016. "On the time scale behavior of equity-commodity links: Implications for portfolio management," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 41(C), pages 30-46.
    8. Nachane, D.M. & Dubey, Amlendu Kumar, 2011. "The vanishing role of money in the macro-economy: An empirical investigation for India," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 28(3), pages 859-869, May.
    9. Schreiber, Sven & Breitung, Jörg, 2015. "Tests Of Non-Causality In A Frequency Band," VfS Annual Conference 2015 (Muenster): Economic Development - Theory and Policy 113111, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    10. Catherine Bruneau & Eric Jondeau, 1999. "Long‐run Causality, with an Application to International Links Between Long‐term Interest Rates," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 61(4), pages 545-568, November.
    11. Wang, Lu & Ma, Feng & Niu, Tianjiao & Liang, Chao, 2021. "The importance of extreme shock: Examining the effect of investor sentiment on the crude oil futures market," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 99(C).
    12. David Greasley & Les Oxley, 2010. "Cliometrics And Time Series Econometrics: Some Theory And Applications," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 24(5), pages 970-1042, December.
    13. Tsangyao Chang & Omid Ranjbar & Charl Jooste, 2017. "Stock Market Interactions between the BRICS and the United States: Evidence from Asymmetric Granger Causality Tests in the Frequency Domain," Iranian Economic Review (IER), Faculty of Economics,University of Tehran.Tehran,Iran, vol. 21(2), pages 297-320, Spring.
    14. CLAUDIU TIBERIU ALBULESCU & Daniel Goyeau & AVIRAL KUMAR TIWARI, 2013. "Revisiting The Financial Volatility–Derivative Products Relationship On Euronext.Liffe Using A Frequency Domain Analysis," Brussels Economic Review, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles, vol. 56(3-4), pages 349-364.
    15. Aviral Kumar Tiwari, 2012. "Tax Burden and GDP: Evidence from Frequency Doman Approach for the USA," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 32(1), pages 147-159.
    16. repec:ipg:wpaper:2014-441 is not listed on IDEAS
    17. Wei, Yanfeng & Guo, Xiaoying, 2016. "An empirical analysis of the relationship between oil prices and the Chinese macro-economy," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 56(C), pages 88-100.
    18. Éric Jondeau, 2001. "La théorie des anticipations de la structure par terme permet-elle de rendre compte de l'évolution des taux d'intérêt sur euro-devise ?," Annals of Economics and Statistics, GENES, issue 62, pages 139-174.
    19. repec:adr:anecst:y:2001:i:62:p:07 is not listed on IDEAS
    20. Xu Huang & Emmanuel Silva & Hossein Hassani, 2018. "Causality between Oil Prices and Tourist Arrivals," Stats, MDPI, vol. 1(1), pages 1-21, October.
    21. Tiwari, Aviral Kumar & Mutascu, Mihai Ioan & Albulescu, Claudiu Tiberiu & Kyophilavong, Phouphet, 2015. "Frequency domain causality analysis of stock market and economic activity in India," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 39(C), pages 224-238.
    22. Breitung, Jorg & Candelon, Bertrand, 2006. "Testing for short- and long-run causality: A frequency-domain approach," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 132(2), pages 363-378, June.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Granger causality; Frequency domain; Filter gain;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • Q54 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Climate; Natural Disasters and their Management; Global Warming

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:ecosta:v:6:y:2018:i:c:p:57-73. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.journals.elsevier.com/econometrics-and-statistics .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.