Central Bank Misperceptions and the Role of Money in Interest Rate Rules
Abstract
Research with Keynesian-style models has emphasized the importance of the output gap for policies aimed at controlling inflation while declaring monetary aggregates largely irrelevant. Critics, however, have argued that these models need to be modified to account for observed money growth and inflation trends, and that monetary trends may serve as a useful cross-check for monetary policy. We identify an important source of monetary trends in form of persistent central bank misperceptions regarding potential output. Simulations with historical output gap estimates indicate that such misperceptions may induce persistent errors in monetary policy and sustained trends in money growth and inflation. If interest rate prescriptions derived from Keynesian-style models are augmented with a cross-check against money-based estimates of trend inflation, inflation control is improved substantially.Download Info
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Bibliographic Info
Paper provided by C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers in its series CEPR Discussion Papers with number 6947.Length:
Date of creation: Aug 2008
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Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:6947
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Related research
Keywords: monetary policy under uncertainty; money; output gap uncertainty; quantity theory; Taylor rules;Other versions of this item:
- Beck, Guenter W. & Wieland, Volker, 2008. "Central bank misperceptions and the role of money in interest-rate rules," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 55(Supplemen), pages S1-S17, October.
- Volker Wieland & Günter W. Beck, 2008. "Central Bank Misperceptions and the Role of Money in Interest Rate Rules," CFS Working Paper Series 2008/25, Center for Financial Studies.
- Guenter Beck & Volker Wieland, 2008. "Central bank misperceptions and the role of money in interest rate rules," Working Paper Research 147, National Bank of Belgium.
- Guenter W. Beck & Volker Wieland, 2008. "Central Bank misperceptions and the role of money in interest rate rules," Working Paper Series 967, European Central Bank.
- Guenter Beck & Volker Wieland, 2008. "Central Bank Misperceptions and the Role of Money in Interest Rate Rules," Discussion Papers 08-004, Stanford Institute for Economic Policy Research.
- E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
- E41 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Demand for Money
- E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
- E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
- E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2009-02-28 (All new papers)
- NEP-CBA-2009-02-28 (Central Banking)
- NEP-MAC-2009-02-28 (Macroeconomics)
- NEP-MON-2009-02-28 (Monetary Economics)
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