Advanced Search
MyIDEAS: Login

Central Bank Misperceptions and the Role of Money in Interest Rate Rules

Contents:

Author Info

  • Beck, Günter
  • Wieland, Volker

Abstract

Research with Keynesian-style models has emphasized the importance of the output gap for policies aimed at controlling inflation while declaring monetary aggregates largely irrelevant. Critics, however, have argued that these models need to be modified to account for observed money growth and inflation trends, and that monetary trends may serve as a useful cross-check for monetary policy. We identify an important source of monetary trends in form of persistent central bank misperceptions regarding potential output. Simulations with historical output gap estimates indicate that such misperceptions may induce persistent errors in monetary policy and sustained trends in money growth and inflation. If interest rate prescriptions derived from Keynesian-style models are augmented with a cross-check against money-based estimates of trend inflation, inflation control is improved substantially.

Download Info

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
File URL: http://www.cepr.org/pubs/dps/DP6947.asp
Download Restriction: CEPR Discussion Papers are free to download for our researchers, subscribers and members. If you fall into one of these categories but have trouble downloading our papers, please contact us at subscribers@cepr.org

As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.

Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers in its series CEPR Discussion Papers with number 6947.

as in new window
Length:
Date of creation: Aug 2008
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:6947

Contact details of provider:
Postal: Centre for Economic Policy Research, 77 Bastwick Street, London EC1V 3PZ
Phone: 44 - 20 - 7183 8801
Fax: 44 - 20 - 7183 8820

Order Information:
Email:

Related research

Keywords: monetary policy under uncertainty; money; output gap uncertainty; quantity theory; Taylor rules;

Other versions of this item:

Find related papers by JEL classification:

This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

References

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
as in new window
  1. Kalchbrenner, J. H. & Tinsley, P. A. & Berry, J. & Garrett, B., 1977. "On filtering auxiliary information in short-run monetary policy," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 7(1), pages 39-84, January.
  2. Reynard, Samuel, 2004. "Financial market participation and the apparent instability of money demand," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(6), pages 1297-1317, September.
  3. Mark Bils & Peter J. Klenow, 2004. "Some Evidence on the Importance of Sticky Prices," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 112(5), pages 947-985, October.
  4. Orphanides, Athanasios & Porter, Richard D., 2000. "P revisited: money-based inflation forecasts with a changing equilibrium velocity," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 52(1-2), pages 87-100.
  5. Orphanides, Athanasios & Wieland, Volker, 2000. "Inflation zone targeting," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 44(7), pages 1351-1387, June.
  6. Andrew C. Harvey, 1990. "The Econometric Analysis of Time Series, 2nd Edition," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 2, volume 1, number 026208189x.
  7. Javier Andrés & J. David López-Salido & Javier Vallés, 2001. "Money in an Estimated Business Cycle Model of the Euro Area," Banco de España Working Papers 0121, Banco de España.
  8. Svensson, L-E-O, 1996. "Inflation Forecast Targeting : Implementaing and Monitoring Inflation Targets," Papers 615, Stockholm - International Economic Studies.
  9. Lawrence Christiano & Cosmin Ilut & Roberto Motto & Massimo Rostagno, 2008. "Monetary policy and stock market boom-bust cycles," Working Paper Series 955, European Central Bank.
  10. Athanasios Orphanides & Simon van Norden, 1999. "The Reliability of Output Gap Estimates in Real Time," Macroeconomics 9907006, EconWPA.
  11. Guenter Coenen & Andrew Levin & Volker Wieland, 2003. "Data Uncertainty and the Role of Money as an Information Variable for Monetary Policy," CFS Working Paper Series 2003/07, Center for Financial Studies.
  12. Lars E.O. Svensson & Michael Wooford, 2000. "Indicator variables for optimal policy," Working Paper Series 12, European Central Bank.
  13. Ireland, Peter N, 2004. "Money's Role in the Monetary Business Cycle," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 36(6), pages 969-83, December.
  14. Richard Clarida & Jordi Gali & Mark Gertler, 1999. "The Science of Monetary Policy: A New Keynesian Perspective," NBER Working Papers 7147, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  15. Marvin Goodfriend & Robert G. King, 1998. "The new neoclassical synthesis and the role of monetary policy," Working Paper 98-05, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond.
  16. Beck, Günter & Wieland, Volker, 2007. "Money in Monetary Policy Design: A Formal Characterization of ECB-Style Cross-Checking," CEPR Discussion Papers 6097, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  17. Orphanides, Athanasios, 2003. "The quest for prosperity without inflation," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(3), pages 633-663, April.
  18. Julio Rotemberg & Michael Woodford, 1997. "An Optimization-Based Econometric Framework for the Evaluation of Monetary Policy," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1997, Volume 12, pages 297-361 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  19. Assenmacher-Wesche, Katrin & Gerlach, Stefan, 2006. "Interpreting Euro Area Inflation at High and Low Frequencies," CEPR Discussion Papers 5632, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  20. Wieland, Volker, 2003. "Monetary Policy and Uncertainty about the Natural Unemployment Rate," CEPR Discussion Papers 3811, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  21. Luca Benati, 2009. "Long Run Evidence on Money Growth and Inflation," Working Paper Series 1027, European Central Bank.
  22. Svensson, Lars E. O. & Woodford, Michael, 2004. "Indicator variables for optimal policy under asymmetric information," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 28(4), pages 661-690, January.
  23. Christina Gerberding & Franz Seitz & Andreas Worms, 2005. "How the Bundesbank really conducted monetary policy," Computing in Economics and Finance 2005 60, Society for Computational Economics.
  24. Stefan Gerlach, 2004. "The two pillars of the European Central Bank," Economic Policy, CEPR & CES & MSH, vol. 19(40), pages 389-439, October.
  25. Walsh, Carl E, 2004. "Robustly Optimal Instrument Rules and Robust Control: An Equivalence Result," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 36(6), pages 1105-13, December.
  26. Wieland, Volker, 2000. "Learning by doing and the value of optimal experimentation," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 24(4), pages 501-534, April.
  27. Taylor, John B, 1979. "Estimation and Control of a Macroeconomic Model with Rational Expectations," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 47(5), pages 1267-86, September.
  28. Lawrence J. Christiano & Massimo Rostagno, 2001. "Money Growth Monitoring and the Taylor Rule," NBER Working Papers 8539, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  29. Beck, Gunter W. & Wieland, Volker, 2002. "Learning and control in a changing economic environment," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 26(9-10), pages 1359-1377, August.
  30. Guenter W. Beck & Volker Wieland, 2007. "Money in Monetary Policy Design under Uncertainty: A Formal Characterization of ECB-Style Cross-Checking," CFS Working Paper Series 2007/18, Center for Financial Studies.
  31. Taylor, John B., 1993. "Discretion versus policy rules in practice," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(1), pages 195-214, December.
  32. Calvo, Guillermo A., 1983. "Staggered prices in a utility-maximizing framework," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 12(3), pages 383-398, September.
  33. William Kerr & Robert G. King, 1996. "Limits on interest rate rules in the IS model," Economic Quarterly, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, issue Spr, pages 47-75.
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

Citations

Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
as in new window

Cited by:
  1. Van Beveren, Ilke & Bernard, Andrew B & Blanchard, Emily J & Vandenbussche, Hylke, 2011. "Carry-along trade," Open Access publications from Katholieke Universiteit Leuven urn:hdl:123456789/387875, Katholieke Universiteit Leuven.
  2. Otmar Issing, 2011. "Lessons for monetary policy: what should the consensus be?," Globalization and Monetary Policy Institute Working Paper 81, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
  3. Beck, Günter & Wieland, Volker, 2009. "Money in monetary policy design: Monetary cross-checking in the New-Keynesian model," CEPR Discussion Papers 7518, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  4. Bernard, Andrew B & Van Beveren, Ilke & Vandenbussche, Hylke, 2010. "Multi-product exporters, carry-along trade and the margins of trade," Open Access publications from Katholieke Universiteit Leuven urn:hdl:123456789/387848, Katholieke Universiteit Leuven.
  5. Abraham, Filip & Van Hove, Jan, 2010. "Can Belgian firms cope with the Chinese dragon and Asian tigers? The export performance of multi-product firms on foreign markets," Open Access publications from Katholieke Universiteit Leuven urn:hdl:123456789/330214, Katholieke Universiteit Leuven.
  6. Athanasios Orphanides & Volker Wieland, 2013. "Complexity and Monetary Policy," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 9(1), pages 167-204, January.
  7. Helge Berger & Henning Weber, 2012. "Money as Indicator for the Natural Rate of Interest," IMF Working Papers 12/6, International Monetary Fund.
  8. Bigio, Saki, 2010. "Learning under fear of floating," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 34(10), pages 1923-1950, October.
  9. Orphanides, Athanasios, 2010. "Monetary Policy Lessons from the Crisis," CEPR Discussion Papers 7891, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  10. Roth, Markus & Bursian, Dirk, 2012. "Taylor rule cross-checking and selective monetary policy adjustment," Annual Conference 2012 (Goettingen): New Approaches and Challenges for the Labor Market of the 21st Century 62078, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
  11. Alfred A. Haug & William G. Dewald, 2012. "Money, Output, And Inflation In The Longer Term: Major Industrial Countries, 1880–2001," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 50(3), pages 773-787, 07.

Lists

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

Statistics

Access and download statistics

Corrections

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:6947

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: ().

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.