New economy : new policy rules?

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New economy : new policy rules?

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Eric Schaling, James Bullard

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Abstract

We wish to understand the implications of recent shifts in US productivity for the structure of optimal monetary policy rules. Accordingly, we augment a standard inflation targeting model in which a forward-looking version of the Taylor rule constitutes the optimal monetary policy with regime switching in productivity, and calculate the optimal rule. We find that a rule that incorporates leading indicators about regimes significantly outperforms the Taylor-type rule. We use this result to comment on the new economy events of the 1990s and the stagflation events of the 1970s.

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Paper provided by Society for Computational Economics in its series Computing in Economics and Finance 2001 with number 53.

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Date of creation: 01 Apr 2001
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Handle: RePEc:sce:scecf1:53

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Other versions of this item:

Article
- James B. Bullard & Eric Schaling, 2001. "New economy-new policy rules," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue May, pages 57-66. [Downloadable!]
Paper
- Bullard, J. & Schaling, E., 2000. "New economy : new policy rules?," Discussion Paper 72, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research. [Downloadable!]
- James Bullard & Eric Schaling, 2000. "New economy - new policy rules?," Working Papers 2000-019, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. [Downloadable!]

Find related papers by JEL classification:
C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions
E47 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Forecasting and Simulation
E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies

This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

NEP-ALL-2001-05-02 (All new papers)
NEP-TID-2001-05-02 (Technology & Industrial Dynamics)

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

Richard Clarida & Jordi Gali & Mark Gertler, 1999. "The Science of Monetary Policy: A New Keynesian Perspective," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 37(4), pages 1661-1707, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
Other versions:
- Clarida, Richard & Galí, Jordi & Gertler, Mark, 1999. "The Science of Monetary Policy: A New Keynesian Perspective," CEPR Discussion Papers 2139, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
- Clarida, R. & Gali, J. & Gertler, M., 1999. "The Science of Monetary Policy: A New Keynesian Perspective," Working Papers 99-13, C.V. Starr Center for Applied Economics, New York University. [Downloadable!]
- Richard Clarida & Jordi Galí & Mark Gertler, 1997. "The Science of Monetary Policy: A New Keynesian Perspective," Economics Working Papers 356, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra, revised Apr 1999. [Downloadable!]
- Richard Clarida & Jordi Gali & Mark Gertler, 1999. "The Science of Monetary Policy: A New Keynesian Perspective," NBER Working Papers 7147, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
Hamilton, James D, 1989. "A New Approach to the Economic Analysis of Nonstationary Time Series and the Business Cycle," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 57(2), pages 357-84, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
Taylor, John B., 1993. "Discretion versus policy rules in practice," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(1), pages 195-214, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
Svensson, Lars E. O., 1997. "Inflation forecast targeting: Implementing and monitoring inflation targets," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 41(6), pages 1111-1146, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
Other versions:
- Svensson, L-E-O, 1996. "Inflation Forecast Targeting : Implementaing and Monitoring Inflation Targets," Papers 615, Stockholm - International Economic Studies.
- Svensson, Lars E.O., 1997. "Inflation Forecast Targeting: Implementing and Monitoring Inflation Targets," Seminar Papers 615, Stockholm University, Institute for International Economic Studies. [Downloadable!]
- Svensson, Lars E O, 1996. "Inflation Forecast Targeting: Implementing and Monitoring Inflation Targets," CEPR Discussion Papers 1511, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
- Lars E. O. Svensson, 1997. "Inflation Forecast Targeting: Implementing and Monitoring Inflation Targets," NBER Working Papers 5797, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
- Lars E O Svensson, . "Inflation Forecast Targeting: Implementing and Monitoring Inflation Targets," Bank of England working papers 56, Bank of England.

Full references

Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

Eijffinger, S.C.W. & Tesfaselassie, M. & Schaling, E., 2004. "Heterogeneous information about the term structure of interest rates, least-squares learning and optimal interest rate rules for inflation forecast targeting," Discussion Paper 14, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research. [Downloadable!]
Other versions:
- Mewael Tesfaselassie & Eric Schaling & Sylvester Eijffinger, 2004. "Heterogeneous Information about the Term Structure of Interest Rates, Least-Squares Learning and Optimal Interest Rate Rules for Inflation Forecast Targeting," Econometric Society 2004 North American Summer Meetings 78, Econometric Society. [Downloadable!]
Schaling, E., 2003. "Learning, inflation reduction and optimal monetary policy," Discussion Paper 74, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research. [Downloadable!]
Jan Marc Berk, 2002. "New Economy, Old Central Banks?," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 02-087/2, Tinbergen Institute, revised 01 Aug 2002. [Downloadable!]
Other versions:
- Jan Marc Berk, 2003. "New Economy, Old Central Banks?," Economic Notes, Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena SpA, vol. 32(1), pages 1-35, 02. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
Schaling , Eric & Eijffinger , Sylvester & Tesfaselassie , Mewael, 2004. "Heterogeneous information about the term structure, least-squares learning and optimal rules for inflation targeting," Research Discussion Papers 23/2004, Bank of Finland. [Downloadable!]
James Bullard & Stefano Eusepi, 2005. "Did the Great Inflation Occur Despite Policymaker Commitment to a Taylor Rule?," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 8(2), pages 324-359, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
Other versions:
- James Bullard & Stefano Eusepi, 2003. "Did the Great Inflation Occur Despite Policymaker Commitment to a Taylor Rule?," Computing in Economics and Finance 2003 129, Society for Computational Economics. [Downloadable!]
- James B. Bullard & Stefano Eusepi, 2004. "Did the Great Inflation occur despite policymaker commitment to a Taylor rule?," Working Papers 2003-013, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. [Downloadable!]
- James Bullard & Stefano Eusepi, 2003. "Did the Great Inflation occur despite policymaker commitment to a Taylor rule?," Working Paper 2003-20, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta. [Downloadable!]
Eijffinger, Sylvester C W & Schaling, Eric & Tesfaselassie, Mewael F., 2006. "Learning About the Term Structure and Optimal Rules for Inflation Targeting," CEPR Discussion Papers 5896, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
Other versions:
- Tesfaselassie, Mewael F. & Schaling, Eric & Eijffinger, Sylvester, 2006. "Learning about the term structure and optimal rules for inflation targeting," Discussion Paper 88, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research. [Downloadable!]
- Tesfaselassie, M.F. & Schaling, E. & Eijffinger, S.C.W., 2006. "Learning About the Term Structure and Optimal Rules for Inflation Targeting," Research Paper ERS-2006-058-F&A Revision, Erasmus Research Institute of Management (ERIM), ERIM is the joint research institute of the Rotterdam School of Management, Erasmus University and the Erasmus School of Economics (ESE) at Erasmus Uni. [Downloadable!]
Fabrizio Zampolli, . "Optimal monetary policy in a regime-switching economy: the response to abrupt shifts in exchange rate dynamics," Bank of England working papers 297, Bank of England. [Downloadable!]
Eijffinger, Sylvester C W & Schaling, Eric & Tesfaselassie, Mewael F., 2004. "Heterogenous Information About the Term Structure of Interest Rates, Least-Squares Learning and Optimal Interest Rate Rules," CEPR Discussion Papers 4279, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)

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