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New economy : new policy rules?

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  • Eric Schaling, James Bullard

Abstract

We wish to understand the implications of recent shifts in US productivity for the structure of optimal monetary policy rules. Accordingly, we augment a standard inflation targeting model in which a forward-looking version of the Taylor rule constitutes the optimal monetary policy with regime switching in productivity, and calculate the optimal rule. We find that a rule that incorporates leading indicators about regimes significantly outperforms the Taylor-type rule. We use this result to comment on the new economy events of the 1990s and the stagflation events of the 1970s.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Society for Computational Economics in its series Computing in Economics and Finance 2001 with number 53.

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Date of creation: 01 Apr 2001
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Handle: RePEc:sce:scecf1:53

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Web page: http://www.econometricsociety.org/conference/SCE2001/SCE2001.html
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Keywords: economic structure; inflation; monetary policy; new economy;

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References

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  1. Lars E O Svensson, 1996. "Inflation Forecast Targeting: Implementing and Monitoring Inflation Targets," Bank of England working papers 56, Bank of England.
  2. Clarida, Richard & Galí, Jordi & Gertler, Mark, 1999. "The Science of Monetary Policy: A New Keynesian Perspective," CEPR Discussion Papers 2139, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  3. Taylor, John B., 1993. "Discretion versus policy rules in practice," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(1), pages 195-214, December.
  4. Hamilton, James D, 1989. "A New Approach to the Economic Analysis of Nonstationary Time Series and the Business Cycle," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 57(2), pages 357-84, March.
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Cited by:
  1. Zampolli, Fabrizio, 2006. "Optimal monetary policy in a regime-switching economy: The response to abrupt shifts in exchange rate dynamics," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 30(9-10), pages 1527-1567.
  2. Mewael F. Tesfaselassie & Eric Schaling & Sylvester Eijffinger, 2011. "Learning about the Term Structure and Optimal Rules for Inflation Targeting," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 43(8), pages 1685-1706, December.
  3. Jan Marc Berk, 2002. "New Economy, Old Central Banks?," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 02-087/2, Tinbergen Institute, revised 01 Aug 2002.
  4. James Bullard & Stefano Eusepi, 2003. "Did the Great Inflation Occur Despite Policymaker Commitment to a Taylor Rule?," Computing in Economics and Finance 2003 129, Society for Computational Economics.
  5. Schaling, E. & Eijffinger, S.C.W. & Tesfaselassie, M.F., 2004. "Heterogeneous Information about the Term Structure of Interest rates, Least-Squares Learning and Optimal Interest Rate Rules for Inflation Forecast Targeting," Discussion Paper 2004-14, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research.
  6. Schaling, E., 2003. "Learning, Inflation Reduction and Optimal Monetary Policy," Discussion Paper 2003-74, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research.
  7. Eric Schaling & Marco Hoeberichts, 2010. "Why Speed Doesn’t Kill: Learning to Believe in Disinflation," De Economist, Springer, vol. 158(1), pages 23-42, April.
  8. Schaling , Eric & Eijffinger , Sylvester & Tesfaselassie , Mewael, 2004. "Heterogeneous information about the term structure, least-squares learning and optimal rules for inflation targeting," Research Discussion Papers 23/2004, Bank of Finland.
  9. Eijffinger, Sylvester C W & Schaling, Eric & Tesfaselassie, Mewael F., 2004. "Heterogenous Information About the Term Structure of Interest Rates, Least-Squares Learning and Optimal Interest Rate Rules," CEPR Discussion Papers 4279, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.

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