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Forecast Targeting as a Monetary Policy Strategy - Policy Rules in Practice

In: The Taylor Rule and the Transformation of Monetary Policy

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  • Michael Woodford

Abstract

Forecast targeting is an innovation in central banking that represents an important step toward more rule-based policymaking, even if it is not an attempt to follow a policy rule of any of the types that have received primary attention in the theoretical literature on optimal monetary policy. This paper discusses the extent to which forecast targeting can be considered an example of a policy rule, and the conditions under which it would represent a desirable rule, with a view to suggesting improvements in the approaches currently used by forecast-targeting central banks. Particular attention is given to the intertemporal consistency of forecast-targeting procedures, the assumptions about future policy that should be used in constructing the forecasts used in such procedures, the horizon with which the target criterion should be concerned, the relevance of forecasts other than the inflation forecast, and the degree of robustness of a desirable target criterion for monetary policy to changing circumstances.

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This chapter was published in:

  • Evan F. Koenig & Robert Leeson & George A. Kahn (ed.), 2012. "The Taylor Rule and the Transformation of Monetary Policy," Books, Hoover Institution, Stanford University, number 4, January.
    This item is provided by Hoover Institution, Stanford University in its series Book Chapters with number 4-9.

    Handle: RePEc:hoo:bookch:4-9

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    1. Taylor, John B, 1993. "The Use of the New Macroeconometrics for Policy Formulation," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 83(2), pages 300-305, May.
    2. Seppo Honkapohja & Kaushik Mitra, 2004. " Performance of Inflation Targeting Based on Constant Interest Rate Projections," CDMA Conference Paper Series 0406, Centre for Dynamic Macroeconomic Analysis.
    3. Pierpaolo Benigno & Michael Woodford, 2004. "Inflation stabilization and welfare: The case of a distorted steady state," Discussion Papers 0405-04, Columbia University, Department of Economics.
    4. Orphanides, Athanasios, 1999. "The Quest for Prosperity Without Inflation," Working Paper Series 93, Sveriges Riksbank (Central Bank of Sweden).
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    6. Clarida, Richard & Galí, Jordi & Gertler, Mark, 1999. "The Science of Monetary Policy: A New Keynesian Perspective," CEPR Discussion Papers 2139, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    7. Lars E. O. Svensson, 2003. "What Is Wrong with Taylor Rules? Using Judgment in Monetary Policy through Targeting Rules," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 41(2), pages 426-477, June.
    8. Richard Clarida & Jordi Galí & Mark Gertler, 1997. "Monetary policy rules and macroeconomic stability: Evidence and some theory," Economics Working Papers 350, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra, revised May 1999.
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    11. Preston, Bruce, 2008. "Adaptive learning and the use of forecasts in monetary policy," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 32(11), pages 3661-3681, November.
    12. Marc P. Giannoni & Michael Woodford, 2003. "Optimal Interest-Rate Rules: I. General Theory," Levine's Bibliography 506439000000000384, UCLA Department of Economics.
    13. Leitemo, Kai, 2003. " Targeting Inflation by Constant-Interest-Rate Forecasts," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 35(4), pages 609-26, August.
    14. Marc Giannoni & Michael Woodford, 2004. "Optimal Inflation-Targeting Rules," NBER Chapters, in: The Inflation-Targeting Debate, pages 93-172 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    15. Michael Woodford, 2005. "Central-bank communication and policy effectiveness," Discussion Papers 0506-07, Columbia University, Department of Economics.
    16. Calvo, Guillermo A., 1983. "Staggered prices in a utility-maximizing framework," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 12(3), pages 383-398, September.
    17. Charles A.E. Goodhart, 2001. "Monetary transmission lags and the formulation of the policy decision on interest rates," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Jul, pages 165-186.
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    19. King, Mervyn, 1997. "Changes in UK monetary policy: Rules and discretion in practice," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 39(1), pages 81-97, June.
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    Cited by:
    1. Giannoni, Marc & Woodford, Michael, 2010. "Optimal Target Criteria for Stabilization Policy," CEPR Discussion Papers 7719, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    2. Alexandre, Fernando & Bação, Pedro & Gabriel, Vasco, 2010. "Soft landing in a Markov-switching economy," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 107(2), pages 169-172, May.
    3. Michael Woodford, 2010. "Optimal Monetary Stabilization Policy," Discussion Papers 0910-18, Columbia University, Department of Economics.
    4. Fernando Alexandre & Vasco J. Gabriel & Pedro Bação, 2008. "Taylor-type rules versus optimal policy in a Markov-switching economy," NIPE Working Papers 15/2008, NIPE - Universidade do Minho.
    5. Vasco Curdia & Michael Woodford, 2010. "Conventional and Unconventional Monetary Policy," Discussion Papers 0910-17, Columbia University, Department of Economics.
    6. Glenn Otto & Graham Voss, 2009. "Strict and Flexible Inflation Forecast Targets: An Empirical Investigation," Working Papers 202009, Hong Kong Institute for Monetary Research.
    7. Michael Woodford, 2012. "Inflation Targeting and Financial Stability," NBER Working Papers 17967, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    8. Olivier Loisel, 2013. "The Implementation of Stabilization Policy," Working Papers 2013-24, Centre de Recherche en Economie et Statistique.
    9. Michael Woodford, 2012. "Principled Policymaking in an Uncertain World," INET Research Notes 10, Institute for New Economic Thinking (INET).

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