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How Useful are Simple Rules for Monetary Policy? The Swedish Experience

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Author Info
Berg, Claes () (Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of Sweden)
Jansson, Per () (Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of Sweden)
Vredin, Anders () (Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of Sweden)

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Abstract

Monetary policy is often analysed in terms of simple rules. Such rules may be useful for many purposes, even when they do not describe the actual monetary policy strategy exactly. This paper compares monetary policy in Sweden during the inflation-targeting regime 19932002 with the policies implied by certain simple instrument rules. Calibrated rules that are commonly used in theoretical analyses do not provide good approximations of Sveriges Riksbank’s (the central bank of Sweden) policy, whereas rules with reaction coefficients that have been estimated using the bank’s own (realtime forecasts do capture policy behaviour quite well. There are different forecastbased rules including different arguments and forecast horizons that describe monetary policy about equally well. A close reading of various policy documents, e.g., Inflation Reports, minutes from the bank’s Executive Board meetings, and speeches, shows that large deviations from the simple rules are associated with factors that are usually neglected in theoretical models of monetary policy. Examples of such factors are concerns for credibility and uncertainties about various economic relationships.

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Publisher Info
Paper provided by Sveriges Riksbank (Central Bank of Sweden) in its series Working Paper Series with number 169.

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Length: 44 pages
Date of creation: 01 Aug 2004
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:hhs:rbnkwp:0169

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Postal: Sveriges Riksbank, SE-103 37 Stockholm, Sweden
Phone: 08 - 787 00 00
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Web page: http://www.riksbank.com/
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Related research
Keywords: monetary policy; inflation target; Taylor rule; forecast-based policy rules; transparency;

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy

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References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Jansson, Per & Vredin, Anders, 2003. "Forecast-Based Monetary Policy: The Case of Sweden," International Finance, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 6(3), pages 349-80, Winter. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. Eric M. Leeper & Tao Zha, 2000. "Assessing simple policy rules: a view from a complete macro model," Working Paper 2000-19, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta. [Downloadable!]
  3. Kenneth N. Kuttner, 2004. "The role of policy rules in inflation targeting," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Jul, pages 89-112. [Downloadable!]
  4. Rogoff, Kenneth, 1985. "The Optimal Degree of Commitment to an Intermediate Monetary Target," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 100(4), pages 1169-89, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. Edward J. Green, 2001. "Central banking and the economics of information," Economic Perspectives, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, issue Q II, pages 28-37. [Downloadable!]
  6. Honkapohja, Seppo & Mitra, Kaushik, 2003. "Performance of Inflation Targeting Based on Constant Interest Rate Projections," CEPR Discussion Papers 4126, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  7. Ireland, Peter N., 1999. "Does the time-consistency problem explain the behavior of inflation in the United States?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 44(2), pages 279-291, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  8. Barro, Robert J & Gordon, David B, 1983. "A Positive Theory of Monetary Policy in a Natural Rate Model," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 91(4), pages 589-610, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  9. Glenn D. Rudebusch & Lars E. O. Svensson, 1998. "Policy rules for inflation targeting," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue Mar.
    Other versions:
  10. Jon Faust & Dale W. Henderson, 2004. "Is inflation targeting best-practice monetary policy?," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Jul, pages 117-144. [Downloadable!]
  11. Taylor, John B., 1993. "Discretion versus policy rules in practice," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(1), pages 195-214, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  12. Rudebusch, Glenn D., 2002. "Term structure evidence on interest rate smoothing and monetary policy inertia," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(6), pages 1161-1187, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  13. Michael Woodford, 2001. "Monetary policy in the information economy," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, pages 297-370. [Downloadable!]
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  14. Lars E. O. Svensson, 2003. "What Is Wrong with Taylor Rules? Using Judgment in Monetary Policy through Targeting Rules," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 41(2), pages 426-477, June.
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  15. Athanasios Orphanides, 2002. "Monetary-Policy Rules and the Great Inflation," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 92(2), pages 115-120, May. [Downloadable!]
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  16. Richard Clarida & Jordi Galí & Mark Gertler, 2000. "Monetary Policy Rules And Macroeconomic Stability: Evidence And Some Theory," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 115(1), pages 147-180, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  17. repec:fth:bfdipa:18/2001 is not listed on IDEAS
  18. John B. Taylor, 2001. "The Role of the Exchange Rate in Monetary-Policy Rules," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 91(2), pages 263-267, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  19. Leitemo, Kai, 2003. " Targeting Inflation by Constant-Interest-Rate Forecasts," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 35(4), pages 609-26, August.
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  21. Huang, Angela & Margaritis, Dimitri & Mayes, David, 2001. "Monetary policy rules in practice: Evidence from New Zealand," Research Discussion Papers 18/2001, Bank of Finland. [Downloadable!]
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  23. Charles A.E. Goodhart, 2001. "Monetary transmission lags and the formulation of the policy decision on interest rates," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Jul, pages 165-186. [Downloadable!]
  24. Jon Faust & Dale W. Henderson, 2004. "Is inflation targeting best-practice monetary policy?," International Finance Discussion Papers 807, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
  25. John C. Williams, 1999. "Simple rules for monetary policy," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 1999-12, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  26. Blix, Mårten & Sellin, Peter, 2000. "A Bivariate Distribution for Inflation and Output Forecasts," Working Paper Series 102, Sveriges Riksbank (Central Bank of Sweden). [Downloadable!]
  27. Nessén, Marianne & Vestin, David, 2000. "Average Inflation Targeting," Working Paper Series 119, Sveriges Riksbank (Central Bank of Sweden). [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  28. M. Nessen & U. Söderström, 2001. "Core Inflation and Monetary Policy," DNB Staff Reports (discontinued) 67, Netherlands Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
Full references

Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Kenneth N. Kuttner, 2004. "The role of policy rules in inflation targeting," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Jul, pages 89-112. [Downloadable!]
  2. Marcela Meirelles Aurelio, 2005. "Do we really know how inflation targeters set interest rates?," Research Working Paper RWP 05-02, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City. [Downloadable!]
  3. Jesper Lindé & Marianne Nessén & Ulf Söderström, 2004. "Monetary Policy in an Estimated Open-Economy Model with Imperfect Pass-Through," Working Papers 263, IGIER (Innocenzo Gasparini Institute for Economic Research), Bocconi University. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  4. Andersson, Michael K. & Karlsson, Gustav & Svensson, Josef, 2007. "The Riksbank’s Forecasting Performance," Working Paper Series 218, Sveriges Riksbank (Central Bank of Sweden). [Downloadable!]
  5. Lindé, Jesper, 2003. "Monetary Policy Shocks and Business Cycle Fluctuations in a Small Open Economy: Sweden 1986-2002," Working Paper Series 153, Sveriges Riksbank (Central Bank of Sweden). [Downloadable!]
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