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Optimal Inflation Targeting Under Alternative Fiscal Regimes

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Author Info
Pierpaolo Benigno
Michael Woodford

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Abstract

Flexible inflation targeting has been advocated as a practical approach to the implementation of an optimal state-contingent monetary policy, but theoretical expositions reaching this conclusion have typically abstracted from the fiscal consequences of monetary policy. Here we extend the standard theory by considering the character of optimal monetary policy under a variety of assumptions about the fiscal regime, with the standard analysis appearing only as a special case in which non-distorting sources of government revenue exist, and fiscal policy can be relied upon to adjust so as to ensure intertemporal government solvency. Alternative cases treated in this paper include ones in which there exist only distorting sources of government revenue; and also ones in which fiscal policy is purely exogenous, so that the central bank cannot rely upon fiscal policy to adjust in order to maintain intertemporal solvency (a case emphasized in the critique of inflation targeting by Sims, 2005). We find that the fiscal policy regime has important consequences for the optimal conduct of monetary policy, but that a suitably modified form of inflation targeting will still represent a useful approach to the implementation of optimal policy. We derive an optimal targeting rule for monetary policy that applies to all of the fiscal regimes considered in this paper, and show that it involves commitment to an explicit target for an output-gap adjusted price level. The optimal policy will allow temporary departures from the long-run target rate of growth in the gap-adjusted price level in response to disturbances that affect the government’s budget, but it will also involve a commitment to rapidly restore the projected growth rate of this variable to its normal level following such disturbances, so that medium-term inflation expectations should remain firmly anchored despite the occurrence of fiscal shocks.

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Paper provided by Central Bank of Chile in its series Working Papers Central Bank of Chile with number 407.

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Date of creation: Dec 2006
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Handle: RePEc:chb:bcchwp:407

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Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Arminio Fraga & Ilan Goldfajn & Andre Minella, 2003. "Inflation Targeting in Emerging Market Economies," NBER Working Papers 10019, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  2. Richard Clarida & Jordi Gali & Mark Gertler, 1999. "The Science of Monetary Policy: A New Keynesian Perspective," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 37(4), pages 1661-1707, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  3. Marc P. Giannoni & Michael Woodford, 2003. "Optimal Interest-Rate Rules: I. General Theory," Levine's Bibliography 506439000000000384, UCLA Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
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  4. Barro, Robert J, 1979. "On the Determination of the Public Debt," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 87(5), pages 940-71, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. V. V. Chari & Patrick J. Kehoe, 1999. "Optimal Fiscal and Monetary Policy," NBER Working Papers 6891, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  6. Buera, Francisco & Nicolini, Juan Pablo, 2004. "Optimal maturity of government debt without state contingent bonds," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(3), pages 531-554, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  7. King, Mervyn, 1997. "Changes in UK monetary policy: Rules and discretion in practice," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 39(1), pages 81-97, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  8. Christopher A. Sims, 2001. "Fiscal consequences for Mexico of adopting the dollar," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, pages 597-625.
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  9. Svensson, Lars E. O., 1997. "Inflation forecast targeting: Implementing and monitoring inflation targets," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 41(6), pages 1111-1146, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  10. Svensson, Lars E. O. & Woodford, Michael, 2003. "Indicator variables for optimal policy," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(3), pages 691-720, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  11. George-Marios Angeletos, 2002. "Fiscal Policy With Noncontingent Debt And The Optimal Maturity Structure," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 117(3), pages 1105-1131, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  12. Pierpaolo Benigno & Michael Woodford, 2005. "Inflation Stabilization And Welfare: The Case Of A Distorted Steady State," Journal of the European Economic Association, MIT Press, vol. 3(6), pages 1185-1236, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  13. Correia, Maria Isabel Horta & Nicolini, Juan Pablo & Teles, Pedro, 2003. "Optimal Fiscal and Monetary Policy: Equivalence Results," CEPR Discussion Papers 3730, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  14. Pierpaolo Benigno & Michael Woodford, 2003. "Optimal Monetary and Fiscal Policy: A Linear Quadratic Approach," NBER Working Papers 9905, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  15. Calvo, Guillermo A., 1983. "Staggered prices in a utility-maximizing framework," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 12(3), pages 383-398, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  16. Andrew T. Levin & Fabio M. Natalucci & Jeremy M. Piger, 2004. "Explicit inflation objectives and macroeconomic outcomes," Working Paper Series 383, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
  17. Julio Rotemberg & Michael Woodford, 1997. "An Optimization-Based Econometric Framework for the Evaluation of Monetary Policy," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1997, Volume 12, pages 297-361 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!]
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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Vasco Cúrdia, 2008. "Optimal monetary policy under sudden stops," Staff Reports 323, Federal Reserve Bank of New York. [Downloadable!]
  2. Christopher Adam & Stephen O'Connell & Edward Buffie, 2008. "Aid volatility, monetary policy rules and the capital account in African economies," WEF Working Papers 0037, ESRC World Economy and Finance Research Programme, Birkbeck, University of London. [Downloadable!]
  3. Michael Kumhof & Ricardo Nunes & Irina Yakadina, 2008. "Simple monetary rules under fiscal dominance," International Finance Discussion Papers 937, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  4. Christopher Reicher, 2009. "Fiscal Taylor Rules in the Postwar United States," Kiel Working Papers 1509, Kiel Institute for the World Economy. [Downloadable!]
  5. Javier Gómez Pineda, . "Capital Flows and Monetary Policy," Borradores de Economia 395, Banco de la Republica de Colombia. [Downloadable!]
  6. Javier Guillermo Gómez, 2006. "Capital Flows and Monetary Policy," BORRADORES DE ECONOMIA 002097, BANCO DE LA REPÚBLICA. [Downloadable!]
  7. Svan Jari Stehn & David Vines, 2007. "Debt Stabilisation Bias And The Taylor Principle: Optimal Policy In A New Keynesian Model With Government Debt And Inflation Persistence," CAMA Working Papers 2007-22, Australian National University, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  8. Pierpaolo Benigno, 2006. "Are Valuation Effects Desirable from a Global Perspective?," NBER Working Papers 12219, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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