Advanced Search
MyIDEAS: Login

Strict and Flexible Inflation Forecast Targets: An Empirical Investigation

Contents:

Author Info

Abstract

We examine whether models of inflation forecast targeting are consistent with the observed behaviour of the central banks of Australia, Canada, and the United States. The target criteria from these models restrict the conditionally expected paths of variables targeted by the central bank, in particular inflation and the output gap. We estimate various moment conditions, providing a description of monetary policy for each central bank under different maintained hypotheses. We then test whether these estimated conditions satisfy the predictions of models of optimal monetary policy. The overall objective is to examine the extent to which and the manner in which these central banks successfully balance inflation and output objectives over the near term. For all three countries, we obtain reasonable estimates for both the strict and flexible inflation forecast targeting models, though with some qualifications. Most notably, for Australia and the United States there are predictable deviations from forecasted targets, which is not consistent with models of inflation targeting. In contrast, the results for Canada lend considerable support to simple models of flexible inflation forecast targeting.

Download Info

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
File URL: http://www.uvic.ca/socialsciences/economics/assets/docs/discussion/ddp0902.pdf
Download Restriction: no

Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Department of Economics, University of Victoria in its series Department Discussion Papers with number 0902.

as in new window
Length: 48 pages
Date of creation: 16 Jun 2009
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:vic:vicddp:0902

Note: ISSN 1914-2838
Contact details of provider:
Postal: PO Box 1700, STN CSC, Victoria, BC, Canada, V8W 2Y2
Phone: (250)721-6197
Fax: (250)721-6214
Web page: http://web.uvic.ca/econ
More information through EDIRC

Related research

Keywords: Monetary policy; inflation; inflation targeting; central banks;

Other versions of this item:

Find related papers by JEL classification:

This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

References

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
as in new window
  1. Lars E O Svensson, 1996. "Inflation Forecast Targeting: Implementing and Monitoring Inflation Targets," Bank of England working papers 56, Bank of England.
  2. Carlo A. Favero, . "Macroeconomic stability and the preferences of the Fed. A formal analysis, 1961-98," Working Papers 200, IGIER (Innocenzo Gasparini Institute for Economic Research), Bocconi University.
  3. Hansen, Lars Peter & Hodrick, Robert J, 1980. "Forward Exchange Rates as Optimal Predictors of Future Spot Rates: An Econometric Analysis," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 88(5), pages 829-53, October.
  4. John Shea, 1997. "Instrument Relevance in Multivariate Linear Models: A Simple Measure," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 79(2), pages 348-352, May.
  5. Lawrence J. Christiano & Martin Eichenbaum & Charles Evans, 2001. "Nominal rigidities and the dynamic effects of a shock to monetary policy," Working Paper 0107, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
  6. Richard Clarida & Jordi Galí & Mark Gertler, 1997. "The science of monetary policy: A new Keynesian perspective," Economics Working Papers 356, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra, revised Apr 1999.
  7. Michael Woodford, 2004. "Inflation targeting and optimal monetary policy," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Jul, pages 15-42.
  8. Rudd, Jeremy & Whelan, Karl, 2005. "Modelling Inflation Dynamics: A Critical Review of Recent Research," Research Technical Papers 7/RT/05, Central Bank of Ireland.
  9. Svensson, Lars E.O., 1998. "Inflation Targeting as a Monetary Policy Rule," Seminar Papers 646, Stockholm University, Institute for International Economic Studies.
  10. Michael Woodford, 2007. "Forecast Targeting as a Monetary Policy Strategy: Policy Rules in Practice," NBER Working Papers 13716, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  11. Richard Clarida & Jordi Gali & Mark Gertler, 1997. "Monetary Policy Rules in Practice: Some International Evidence," NBER Working Papers 6254, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  12. Stock, James H & Wright, Jonathan H & Yogo, Motohiro, 2002. "A Survey of Weak Instruments and Weak Identification in Generalized Method of Moments," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 20(4), pages 518-29, October.
  13. Richard Dennis, 2006. "The policy preferences of the US Federal Reserve," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 21(1), pages 55-77.
  14. Kenneth N. Kuttner, 2004. "The role of policy rules in inflation targeting," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Jul, pages 89-112.
  15. McCallum, Bennett T, 2000. "The Present and Future of Monetary Policy Rules," International Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 3(2), pages 273-86, July.
  16. McCallum, Bennett T., 1999. "Issues in the design of monetary policy rules," Handbook of Macroeconomics, in: J. B. Taylor & M. Woodford (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 23, pages 1483-1530 Elsevier.
  17. Marc P. Giannoni & Michael Woodford, 2003. "Optimal Inflation Targeting Rules," NBER Working Papers 9939, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  18. Hansen, Lars Peter, 1982. "Large Sample Properties of Generalized Method of Moments Estimators," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(4), pages 1029-54, July.
  19. S. G. B Henry & A. R. Pagan, 2004. "The Econometrics of the New Keynesian Policy Model: Introduction," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 66(s1), pages 581-607, 09.
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

Citations

Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
as in new window

Cited by:
  1. Fromlet, Pia, 2013. "Monetary Policy Under Discretion Or Commitment? -An Empirical Study," Working Paper Series 2013:8, Uppsala University, Department of Economics.
  2. Graham M. Voss & Glenn D. Otto, 2011. "Flexible Inflation Forecast Targeting: Evidence from Canada," Department Discussion Papers 1101, Department of Economics, University of Victoria.

Lists

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

Statistics

Access and download statistics

Corrections

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:vic:vicddp:0902. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Lori Cretney).

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.