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Strict and Flexible Inflation Forecast Targets: An Empirical Investigation

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  • Glenn Otto

    (University of New South Wales, Australia)

  • Graham Voss

    (University of Victoria, Canada, Hong Kong Institute for Monetary Research)

Abstract

We examine whether standard theoretical models of inflation forecast targeting are consistent with the observed behaviour of the central banks of Australia, Canada, and the United States. The target criteria from these models restrict the conditionally expected paths of variables targeted by the central bank, in particular inflation and the output gap. We estimate various moment conditions, providing a description of monetary policy for each central bank under different maintained hypotheses. We then test whether these estimated conditions satisfy the predictions of models of optimal monetary policy. The overall objective is to examine the extent to which and the manner in which these central banks successfully balance inflation and output objectives over the near term. For all three countries, we obtain reasonable estimates for both the strict and flexible inflation forecast targeting models, though with some qualifications. Most notably, for Australia and the United States there are predictable deviations from forecasted targets, which is not consistent with models of inflation targeting. In contrast, the results for Canada lend considerable support to simple models of flexible inflation forecast targeting.

Suggested Citation

  • Glenn Otto & Graham Voss, 2009. "Strict and Flexible Inflation Forecast Targets: An Empirical Investigation," Working Papers 202009, Hong Kong Institute for Monetary Research.
  • Handle: RePEc:hkm:wpaper:202009
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Jason Nassios & James A. Giesecke & Peter B. Dixon & Maureen T. Rimmer, 2016. "Superannuation and Macroeconomic Growth and Stability," Centre of Policy Studies/IMPACT Centre Working Papers g-267, Victoria University, Centre of Policy Studies/IMPACT Centre.
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    3. Fromlet, Pia, 2013. "Monetary Policy Under Discretion Or Commitment? -An Empirical Study," Working Paper Series 2013:8, Uppsala University, Department of Economics.

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    JEL classification:

    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies

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