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Adaptive learning and the use of forecasts in monetary policy

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  • Preston, Bruce

Abstract

This paper investigates monetary policy design when central bank and private-sector expectations differ. Private agents learn adaptively; the central bank has a possibly misspecified model of the economy. Successful implementation of optimal policy using inflation targeting rules requires the central bank to have complete knowledge of private agents' learning behavior. If the central bank mistakenly assumes private agents to have rational expectations when in fact they are learning, then policy rules frequently lead to divergent learning dynamics. However, if the central bank does not correctly understand agents' behavior, stabilization policy is best implemented by controlling the path of the price level rather than the inflation rate.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control.

Volume (Year): 32 (2008)
Issue (Month): 11 (November)
Pages: 3661-3681

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Handle: RePEc:eee:dyncon:v:32:y:2008:i:11:p:3661-3681

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Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/jedc

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Keywords: Adaptive learning Monetary policy Targeting rules;

References

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  1. Svensson, Lars E O, 1998. "Inflation Targeting as a Monetary Policy Rule," CEPR Discussion Papers 1998, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  2. Richard Clarida & Jordi Galí & Mark Gertler, 1997. "The science of monetary policy: A new Keynesian perspective," Economics Working Papers 356, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra, revised Apr 1999.
  3. Bernanke, Ben S & Woodford, Michael, 1997. "Inflation Forecasts and Monetary Policy," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 29(4), pages 653-84, November.
  4. V. V. Chari & Patrick J. Kehoe & Ellen R. McGrattan, 1996. "Sticky Price Models of the Business Cycle: Can the Contract Multiplier Solve the Persistence Problem?," NBER Working Papers 5809, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  5. Preston, Bruce, 2005. "Learning about Monetary Policy Rules when Long-Horizon Expectations Matter," MPRA Paper 830, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  6. Evans, George W. & Honkapohja, Seppo, 2002. "Monetary policy, expectations and commitment," Working Paper Series 0124, European Central Bank.
  7. Julio J. Rotemberg & Michael Woodford, 1998. "Interest-Rate Rules in an Estimated Sticky Price Model," NBER Working Papers 6618, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  8. Honkapohja, Seppo & Mitra, Kaushik, 2002. "Performance of monetary policy with internal central bank forecasting," Working Paper Series 0127, European Central Bank.
  9. Preston, Bruce, 2006. "Adaptive learning, forecast-based instrument rules and monetary policy," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 53(3), pages 507-535, April.
  10. Krisztina Molnár & Sergio Santoro, 2010. "Optimal Monetary Policy when Agents are Learning," CESifo Working Paper Series 3072, CESifo Group Munich.
  11. Woodford, Michael, 1999. "Optimal Monetary Policy Inertia," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 67(0), pages 1-35, Supplemen.
  12. Marcet, Albert & Sargent, Thomas J., 1989. "Convergence of least squares learning mechanisms in self-referential linear stochastic models," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 48(2), pages 337-368, August.
  13. Bennett T. McCallum, 1981. "On Non-Uniqueness in Rational Expectations Models: An Attempt at Perspective," NBER Working Papers 0684, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  14. Marc P. Giannoni & Michael Woodford, 2003. "Optimal Interest-Rate Rules: I. General Theory," NBER Working Papers 9419, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  15. Woodford, Michael, 1999. "Optimal monetary policy inertia," CFS Working Paper Series 1999/09, Center for Financial Studies (CFS).
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