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Adaptive learning and the use of forecasts in monetary policy

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Author Info
Preston, Bruce

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Abstract

This paper investigates monetary policy design when central bank and private-sector expectations differ. Private agents learn adaptively; the central bank has a possibly misspecified model of the economy. Successful implementation of optimal policy using inflation targeting rules requires the central bank to have complete knowledge of private agents' learning behavior. If the central bank mistakenly assumes private agents to have rational expectations when in fact they are learning, then policy rules frequently lead to divergent learning dynamics. However, if the central bank does not correctly understand agents' behavior, stabilization policy is best implemented by controlling the path of the price level rather than the inflation rate.

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File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/B6V85-4SCD9XX-1/2/7343ef73f36418a883afc8da130a49d6
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Publisher Info
Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control.

Volume (Year): 32 (2008)
Issue (Month): 11 (November)
Pages: 3661-3681
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Handle: RePEc:eee:dyncon:v:32:y:2008:i:11:p:3661-3681

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Related research
Keywords: Adaptive learning Monetary policy Targeting rules;

Cited by:
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  1. Stefano Eusepi & Bruce Preston, 2008. "Stabilizing Expectations under Monetary and Fiscal Policy Coordination," NBER Working Papers 14391, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  2. Lars E.O. Svensson, 2004. "Targeting Rules vs. Instrument Rules for Monetary Policy: What is Wrong with McCallum and Nelson?," NBER Working Papers 10747, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. James B. Bullard & Stefano Eusepi, 2004. "Did the Great Inflation occur despite policymaker commitment to a Taylor rule?," Working Papers 2003-013, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  4. Fabio Milani, 2005. "A Bayesian DSGE Model with Infinite-Horizon Learning: Do "Mechanical" Sources of Persistence Become Superfluous?," Working Papers 060703, University of California-Irvine, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  5. Lars E.O. Svensson, 2005. "Targeting versus instrument rules for monetary policy: what is wrong with McCallum and Nelson?," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Sep, pages 613-626. [Downloadable!]
  6. James B. Bullard & Stefano Eusepi, 2009. "When does determinacy imply expectational stability?," Working Papers 2008-007, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. [Downloadable!]
  7. Fabio Milani, 2009. "The Effect of Global Output on U.S. Inflation and Inflation Expectations: A Structural Estimation," Working Papers 080920, University of California-Irvine, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
  8. Lars E.O. Svensson, 2003. "Monetary policy and learning," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, issue Q3, pages 11-16. [Downloadable!]
  9. Michael Woodford, 2007. "Forecast Targeting as a Monetary Policy Strategy: Policy Rules in Practice," NBER Working Papers 13716, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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