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Rule-Based Monetary Policy Under Central Banking Learning

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Author Info
Aoki, Kosuke
Nikolov, Kalin

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Abstract

The paper evaluates the performance of three popular monetary policy rules when the central bank is learning about the parameter values of a simple New Keynesian model. The three policies are: (1) the optimal non-inertial rule; (2) the optimal history-dependent rule; (3) the optimal price-level targeting rule. Under rational expectations rules (2) and (3) both implement the fully optimal equilibrium by improving the output-inflation trade off. When imperfect information about the model parameters is introduced, it is found that the central bank makes monetary policy mistakes, which affect welfare to a different degree under the three rules. The optimal history-dependent rule is worst affected and delivers the lowest welfare. Price level targeting performs best under learning and maintains the advantages of conducting policy under commitment. These findings are related to the literatures on feedback control and robustness. The paper argues that adopting integral representations of rules designed under full information is desirable because they deliver the beneficial output-inflation trade-off of commitment policy while being robust to implementation errors.

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Paper provided by C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers in its series CEPR Discussion Papers with number 5056.

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Date of creation: May 2005
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Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:5056

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Related research
Keywords: learning; monetary policy rules;

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
E50 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - General

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References listed on IDEAS
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  1. Woodford, Michael, 2007. "How Important is Money in the Conduct of Monetary Policy?," CEPR Discussion Papers 6211, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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