New economy - new policy rules?

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New economy - new policy rules?

Author Info

James Bullard
Eric Schaling

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Abstract

The U.S. economy appears to have experienced a pronounced shift toward higher productivity over the last five years or so. We wish to understand the implications of such shifts for the structure of optimal monetary policy rules in simple dynamic economies. Accordingly, we begin with a standard economy in which a version of the Taylor rule constitutes the optimal monetary policy for a given inflation target and a given level of productivity. We augment this model with regime switching in productivity, and calculate the optimal monetary policy rule in the altered environment. We find that in the altered environment, a rule that incorporates leading indicators about regimes significantly outperforms the Taylor rule. We use this result to comment on the "new economy" events of the 1990s and the "stagflation" events of the 1970s form the perspective of our model.

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Paper provided by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis in its series Working Papers with number 2000-019.

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Date of creation: 2000
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Publication status: Published in Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Review, September/October 2001, 83(5), pp. 57-66
Handle: RePEc:fip:fedlwp:2000-019

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Article
- James B. Bullard & Eric Schaling, 2001. "New economy-new policy rules," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue May, pages 57-66. [Downloadable!]
Paper
- Bullard, J. & Schaling, E., 2000. "New economy : new policy rules?," Discussion Paper 72, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research. [Downloadable!]
- Eric Schaling, James Bullard, 2001. "New economy : new policy rules?," Computing in Economics and Finance 2001 53, Society for Computational Economics. [Downloadable!]

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

Richard Clarida & Jordi Gali & Mark Gertler, 1999. "The Science of Monetary Policy: A New Keynesian Perspective," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 37(4), pages 1661-1707, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
Other versions:
- Clarida, Richard & Galí, Jordi & Gertler, Mark, 1999. "The Science of Monetary Policy: A New Keynesian Perspective," CEPR Discussion Papers 2139, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
- Clarida, R. & Gali, J. & Gertler, M., 1999. "The Science of Monetary Policy: A New Keynesian Perspective," Working Papers 99-13, C.V. Starr Center for Applied Economics, New York University. [Downloadable!]
- Richard Clarida & Jordi Galí & Mark Gertler, 1997. "The Science of Monetary Policy: A New Keynesian Perspective," Economics Working Papers 356, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra, revised Apr 1999. [Downloadable!]
- Richard Clarida & Jordi Gali & Mark Gertler, 1999. "The Science of Monetary Policy: A New Keynesian Perspective," NBER Working Papers 7147, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
Hamilton, James D, 1989. "A New Approach to the Economic Analysis of Nonstationary Time Series and the Business Cycle," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 57(2), pages 357-84, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
Taylor, John B., 1993. "Discretion versus policy rules in practice," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(1), pages 195-214, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
Svensson, Lars E. O., 1997. "Inflation forecast targeting: Implementing and monitoring inflation targets," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 41(6), pages 1111-1146, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
Other versions:
- Svensson, L-E-O, 1996. "Inflation Forecast Targeting : Implementaing and Monitoring Inflation Targets," Papers 615, Stockholm - International Economic Studies.
- Svensson, Lars E.O., 1997. "Inflation Forecast Targeting: Implementing and Monitoring Inflation Targets," Seminar Papers 615, Stockholm University, Institute for International Economic Studies. [Downloadable!]
- Svensson, Lars E O, 1996. "Inflation Forecast Targeting: Implementing and Monitoring Inflation Targets," CEPR Discussion Papers 1511, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
- Lars E. O. Svensson, 1997. "Inflation Forecast Targeting: Implementing and Monitoring Inflation Targets," NBER Working Papers 5797, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
- Lars E O Svensson, . "Inflation Forecast Targeting: Implementing and Monitoring Inflation Targets," Bank of England working papers 56, Bank of England.

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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

Eijffinger, S.C.W. & Tesfaselassie, M. & Schaling, E., 2004. "Heterogeneous information about the term structure of interest rates, least-squares learning and optimal interest rate rules for inflation forecast targeting," Discussion Paper 14, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research. [Downloadable!]
Other versions:
- Mewael Tesfaselassie & Eric Schaling & Sylvester Eijffinger, 2004. "Heterogeneous Information about the Term Structure of Interest Rates, Least-Squares Learning and Optimal Interest Rate Rules for Inflation Forecast Targeting," Econometric Society 2004 North American Summer Meetings 78, Econometric Society. [Downloadable!]
James Bullard & Stefano Eusepi, 2005. "Did the Great Inflation Occur Despite Policymaker Commitment to a Taylor Rule?," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 8(2), pages 324-359, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
Other versions:
- James Bullard & Stefano Eusepi, 2003. "Did the Great Inflation Occur Despite Policymaker Commitment to a Taylor Rule?," Computing in Economics and Finance 2003 129, Society for Computational Economics. [Downloadable!]
- James B. Bullard & Stefano Eusepi, 2004. "Did the Great Inflation occur despite policymaker commitment to a Taylor rule?," Working Papers 2003-013, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. [Downloadable!]
- James Bullard & Stefano Eusepi, 2003. "Did the Great Inflation occur despite policymaker commitment to a Taylor rule?," Working Paper 2003-20, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta. [Downloadable!]
Eijffinger, Sylvester C W & Schaling, Eric & Tesfaselassie, Mewael F., 2006. "Learning About the Term Structure and Optimal Rules for Inflation Targeting," CEPR Discussion Papers 5896, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
Other versions:
- Tesfaselassie, Mewael F. & Schaling, Eric & Eijffinger, Sylvester, 2006. "Learning about the term structure and optimal rules for inflation targeting," Discussion Paper 88, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research. [Downloadable!]
- Tesfaselassie, M.F. & Schaling, E. & Eijffinger, S.C.W., 2006. "Learning About the Term Structure and Optimal Rules for Inflation Targeting," Research Paper ERS-2006-058-F&A Revision, Erasmus Research Institute of Management (ERIM), ERIM is the joint research institute of the Rotterdam School of Management, Erasmus University and the Erasmus School of Economics (ESE) at Erasmus Uni. [Downloadable!]
Schaling, E., 2003. "Learning, inflation reduction and optimal monetary policy," Discussion Paper 74, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research. [Downloadable!]
Fabrizio Zampolli, . "Optimal monetary policy in a regime-switching economy: the response to abrupt shifts in exchange rate dynamics," Bank of England working papers 297, Bank of England. [Downloadable!]
Jan Marc Berk, 2002. "New Economy, Old Central Banks?," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 02-087/2, Tinbergen Institute, revised 01 Aug 2002. [Downloadable!]
Other versions:
- Jan Marc Berk, 2003. "New Economy, Old Central Banks?," Economic Notes, Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena SpA, vol. 32(1), pages 1-35, 02. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
Schaling , Eric & Eijffinger , Sylvester & Tesfaselassie , Mewael, 2004. "Heterogeneous information about the term structure, least-squares learning and optimal rules for inflation targeting," Research Discussion Papers 23/2004, Bank of Finland. [Downloadable!]
Eijffinger, Sylvester C W & Schaling, Eric & Tesfaselassie, Mewael F., 2004. "Heterogenous Information About the Term Structure of Interest Rates, Least-Squares Learning and Optimal Interest Rate Rules," CEPR Discussion Papers 4279, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)

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