Optimal monetary policy under uncertainty: a Markov jump-linear-quadratic approach

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Optimal monetary policy under uncertainty: a Markov jump-linear-quadratic approach

Author Info

Lars E.O. Svensson
Noah Williams

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Abstract

This paper studies the design of optimal monetary policy under uncertainty using a Markov jump-linear-quadratic (MJLQ) approach. To approximate the uncertainty that policymakers face, the authors use different discrete modes in a Markov chain and take mode-dependent linear-quadratic approximations of the underlying model. This allows the authors to apply a powerful methodology with convenient solution algorithms that they have developed. They apply their methods to analyze the effects of uncertainty and potential gains from experimentation for two sources of uncertainty in the New Keynesian Phillips curve. The examples highlight that learning may have sizable effects on losses and, although it is generally beneficial, it need not always be so. The experimentation component typically has little effect and in some cases it can lead to attenuation of policy.

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Publisher Info
Article provided by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis in its journal Review.

Volume (Year): (2008)
Issue (Month): Jul ()
Pages: 275-294
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Handle: RePEc:fip:fedlrv:y:2008:i:jul:p:275-294:n:v.90no.4

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Timothy Cogley & Riccardo Colacito & Thomas J. Sargent, 2007. "Benefits from U.S. Monetary Policy Experimentation in the Days of Samuelson and Solow and Lucas," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 39(s1), pages 67-99, 02. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
Other versions:
- Timothy Cogley & Riccardo Colacito & Thomas J. Sargent, 2005. "Benefits from U.S. monetary policy experimentation in the days of Samuelson and Solow and Lucas," Proceedings, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
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Other versions:
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Other versions:
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Other versions:
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Other versions:
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Other versions:
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Lars E.O. Svensson & Noah M. Williams, 2007. "Bayesian and Adaptive Optimal Policy under Model Uncertainty," NBER Working Papers 13414, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
Other versions:
- Lars E.O. Svensson & Noah Williams, 2007. "Bayesian and Adaptive Optimal Policy under Model Uncertainty," CFS Working Paper Series 2007/11, Center for Financial Studies. [Downloadable!]
Beck, Gunter W. & Wieland, Volker, 2002. "Learning and control in a changing economic environment," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 26(9-10), pages 1359-1377, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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Other versions:
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Other versions:
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Other versions:
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