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Monetary policy, parameter uncertainty and optimal learning

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Author Info
Volker Wieland

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Abstract

Since central banks have limited information concerning the transmission channel of monetary policy, they are faced with the difficult task of simultaneously controlling the policy target and estimating the impact of policy actions. A tradeoff between estimation and control arises because policy actions influence estimation and provide information which may improve future performance. I analyze this tradeoff in a simple model with parameter uncertainty and conduct dynamics simulations of the policymaker's decision problem in the presence of the type of uncertainties that arose in the wake of German reunification. A policy that separates learning from control may induce a persistent upward bias in money growth and inflation, just as observed after unification. In contrast, the optimal learning strategy which exploits the tradeoff between control and estimation significantly improves stabilization performance and reduces the likelihood of inflationary bias.

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Paper provided by Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.) in its series Finance and Economics Discussion Series with number 1999-48.

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Date of creation: 1999
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Handle: RePEc:fip:fedgfe:1999-48

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Keywords: Monetary policy ; Macroeconomics;

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  7. Karl-Heinz Tödter & Hans-Eggert Reimers, 1994. "P-Star as a link between money and prices in Germany," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer, vol. 130(2), pages 273-289, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  12. Tinsley, P. & Von Zur Muehlen, P., 1981. "A maximum probability approach to short-run policy," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 15(1), pages 31-48, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  13. Volker Wieland, 1996. "Learning by doing and the value of optimal experimentation," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 96-5, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
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  14. Balvers, Ronald J & Cosimano, Thomas F, 1994. "Inflation Variability and Gradualist Monetary Policy," Review of Economic Studies, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 61(4), pages 721-38, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  17. Anderson, T W & Taylor, John B, 1976. "Some Experimental Results on the Statistical Properties of Least Squares Estimates in Control Problems," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 44(6), pages 1289-1302, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  24. Basar, Tamer & Salmon, Mark, 1990. "Credibility and the value of information transmission in a model of monetary policy and inflation," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 14(1), pages 97-116, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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