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Caution Or Activism? Monetary Policy Strategies In An Open Economy

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  • ELLISON, MARTIN
  • SARNO, LUCIO
  • VILMUNEN, JOUKO

Abstract

We examine optimal policy in an open-economy model with uncertainty and learning, where monetary policy actions affect the economy through the real exchange rate channel. Our results show that the degree of caution or activism in optimal policy depends on whether central banks are in coordinated or uncoordinated equilibrium. If central banks coordinate their policy actions then activism is optimal. In contrast, if there is no coordination, caution prevails. In the latter case caution is optimal because it helps central banks to avoid exposing themselves to manipulative actions by other central banks.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Cambridge University Press in its journal Macroeconomic Dynamics.

Volume (Year): 11 (2007)
Issue (Month): 04 (September)
Pages: 519-541

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Handle: RePEc:cup:macdyn:v:11:y:2007:i:04:p:519-541_06

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  1. Svensson, Lars E O, 1996. "Price-level Targeting versus Inflation Targeting: A Free Lunch?," CEPR Discussion Papers 1510, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  2. Wieland, Volker, 2000. "Learning by doing and the value of optimal experimentation," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 24(4), pages 501-534, April.
  3. Volker Wieland, 1999. "Monetary policy, parameter uncertainty and optimal learning," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 1999-48, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  4. Frankel, Jeffrey A & Rockett, Katharine E, 1988. "International Macroeconomic Policy Coordination When Policymakers Do Not Agree on the True Model," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 78(3), pages 318-40, June.
  5. Basar, Tamer & Salmon, Mark, 1990. "Credibility and the value of information transmission in a model of monetary policy and inflation," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 14(1), pages 97-116, February.
  6. Ghosh, Atish R & Masson, Paul R, 1991. "Model Uncertainty, Learning, and the Gains from Coordination," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 81(3), pages 465-79, June.
  7. Bertocchi, Graziella & Spagat, Michael, 1991. "Learning, Experimentation and Monetary Policy," Discussion Papers (IRES - Institut de Recherches Economiques et Sociales) 1991018, Université catholique de Louvain, Institut de Recherches Economiques et Sociales (IRES).
  8. Alan S. Blinder, 1999. "Central Banking in Theory and Practice," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262522608.
  9. Ellison, Martin & Vilmunen, Jouko, 2005. "A simple approach to identifying the incentives for policy experimentation," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 86(2), pages 167-172, February.
  10. Balvers, Ronald J & Cosimano, Thomas F, 1994. "Inflation Variability and Gradualist Monetary Policy," Review of Economic Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 61(4), pages 721-38, October.
  11. Kiefer, Nicholas M & Nyarko, Yaw, 1989. "Optimal Control of an Unknown Linear Process with Learning," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 30(3), pages 571-86, August.
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Cited by:
  1. James Bullard & Eric Schaling, 2006. "Monetary policy, determinacy, and learnability in the open economy," Working Paper Series 611, European Central Bank.
  2. Philip Arestis & Alexander Mihailov, 2008. "Classifying Monetary Economics: Fields and Methods from Past to Future," Economics & Management Discussion Papers em-dp2008-64, Henley Business School, Reading University.
  3. James Bullard & Eric Schaling, 2009. "Monetary Policy, Determinacy, and Learnability in a Two-Block World Economy," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 41(8), pages 1585-1612, December.
  4. Bigio, Saki, 2010. "Learning under fear of floating," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 34(10), pages 1923-1950, October.

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