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Caution Or Activism? Monetary Policy Strategies In An Open Economy

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  • ELLISON, MARTIN
  • SARNO, LUCIO
  • VILMUNEN, JOUKO

Abstract

We examine optimal policy in an open-economy model with uncertainty and learning, where monetary policy actions affect the economy through the real exchange rate channel. Our results show that the degree of caution or activism in optimal policy depends on whether central banks are in coordinated or uncoordinated equilibrium. If central banks coordinate their policy actions then activism is optimal. In contrast, if there is no coordination, caution prevails. In the latter case caution is optimal because it helps central banks to avoid exposing themselves to manipulative actions by other central banks.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Cambridge University Press in its journal Macroeconomic Dynamics.

Volume (Year): 11 (2007)
Issue (Month): 04 (September)
Pages: 519-541

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Handle: RePEc:cup:macdyn:v:11:y:2007:i:04:p:519-541_06

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  1. Bertocchi, Graziella & Spagat, Michael, 1993. "Learning, experimentation, and monetary policy," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(1), pages 169-183, August.
  2. Ellison, Martin & Vilmunen, Jouko, 2005. "A simple approach to identifying the incentives for policy experimentation," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 86(2), pages 167-172, February.
  3. Balvers, Ronald J & Cosimano, Thomas F, 1994. "Inflation Variability and Gradualist Monetary Policy," Review of Economic Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 61(4), pages 721-38, October.
  4. Volker Wieland, 1996. "Learning by doing and the value of optimal experimentation," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 96-5, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  5. Alan S. Blinder, 1999. "Central Banking in Theory and Practice," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262522608, December.
  6. Svensson, Lars E O, 1996. "Price-level Targeting versus Inflation Targeting: A Free Lunch?," CEPR Discussion Papers 1510, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  7. Ghosh, Atish R & Masson, Paul R, 1991. "Model Uncertainty, Learning, and the Gains from Coordination," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 81(3), pages 465-79, June.
  8. Basar, T & Salmon, Mark, 1989. "Credibility and the Value of Information Transmission in a Model of Monetary Policy and Inflation," CEPR Discussion Papers 338, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  9. Frankel, Jeffrey A & Rockett, Katharine E, 1988. "International Macroeconomic Policy Coordination When Policymakers Do Not Agree on the True Model," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 78(3), pages 318-40, June.
  10. Carl E. Walsh, 2003. "Monetary Theory and Policy, 2nd Edition," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 2, volume 1, number 0262232316, December.
  11. Wieland, Volker, 2000. "Monetary policy, parameter uncertainty and optimal learning," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 46(1), pages 199-228, August.
  12. Kiefer, Nicholas M & Nyarko, Yaw, 1989. "Optimal Control of an Unknown Linear Process with Learning," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 30(3), pages 571-86, August.
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Cited by:
  1. Bigio, Saki, 2009. "Learning under Fear of Floating," Working Papers 2009-004, Banco Central de Reserva del PerĂș.
  2. James Bullard & Eric Schaling, 2005. "Monetary Policy, Determinacy, and Learnability in the Open Economy," Working Papers 11, Economic Research Southern Africa.
  3. Philip Arestis & Alexander Mihailov, 2011. "Classifying Monetary Economics: Fields And Methods From Past To Future," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 25(4), pages 769-800, 09.
  4. James Bullard & Eric Schaling, 2009. "Monetary Policy, Determinacy, and Learnability in a Two-Block World Economy," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 41(8), pages 1585-1612, December.

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